Betfair Hurdle

[Danny]

Tbh I don't think you'll win any medals for bravery with those opinions Tan. If your someone who has a desire to be right the majority of the time then you go the right way about it. Saying Call Me lord won't win a champion hurdle your 1/40 at least to be right I think when Des put up Saphir de rheu for the GC the other week you also said that wouldn't win a mere 1/66 shot.

I wouldn't say the Champion Hurdle will be a walk over it never is Boover as I like to call him looks solid and his price reflects that but as for the rest I don't think there is that much to be afraid of in truth and your list tried an tested is as much proof as one would need to try and find something unexpected to emerge as a solid challenger.

Faugheen last seen pulling up even your Call me sid would have beaten him on that occasion.
The New One currently on course for the Stayers Hurdle if NTD is to be believed so irrelevant.
My Tent or yours certainly tried and tested and has come up short every year every chance if nothing else emerges that he will place again but that's at best.
Melon fair enough I suppose and a reasonable chance.
Defi- Beat by staying hurdlers when last seen not a great sign.

Remembering a fair few of those should clash in the Irish Champion hurdle and there can only be one winner the rest won't look so promising once beaten.

I'd agree the Kingwell isn't normally a strong trial that's fairly obvious. Katchit the last one to do the double was also a 5yo in other words still able to improve. I think just off the top of my head Hors la loi did the double too. So if that's 2 winners in the last 20 years oh that's terrible stats but I dare say if you could have backed all Kingwell winners for the last 20 years at 40/1 for the champion hurdle ante-post then your a poor sod for backing 18 losers

I have no desire to be right all of the time when your backing horses on a regular basis from 20/1 to 100/1 you get used to losing, being wrong and looking foolish most of the time. Call me a lord turns out to be a donkey, I just brush myself off and move onto the next project but I very much doubt I'll lose money on this one either way given NRNB.

[Grasshopper]

The concern with Call Me Lord is that his best form is on Soft/Heavy, and appears to be appreciably poorer on quicker ground.

I’m not convinced they’ll run him at Cheltenham. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock if connections aimed him at the Prix La Barka, to see if he had the stamina for the French Champion Hurdle. Munir/Souede are usually more than happy to have a dash at the big Auteuil races, with horses in their string trained outside France.

That’s the way I’d go with CML anyway.

[archie]

I'm fairly sure that they've swapped the dates for the French Champion Hurdle and Prix La Barka, Grassy.

[Danny]

The concern with Call Me Lord is that his best form is on Soft/Heavy, and appears to be appreciably poorer on quicker ground.

I’m not convinced they’ll run him at Cheltenham. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock if connections aimed him at the Prix La Barka, to see if he had the stamina for the French Champion Hurdle. Munir/Souede are usually more than happy to have a dash at the big Auteuil races, with horses in their string trained outside France.

That’s the way I’d go with CML anyway.

Yeah its a possibility and I'm sort of half and half between thinking he's a mud lark or not. Poorer form on quicker ground I'm not sure about Grass, he was beaten first time up on better ground but that's not solid evidence really. He's only been beaten twice once on his debut he was beaten 23L (on soft) and then markedly stepped up on his next performance and he's been easily beaten on seasonal debut and then a much improved performance again. There is not a lot to go on either way but that could suggest he's one that just needs a run. His one run for Henderson last season as a juvenile he's won on good ground and it was a solidly run race. He did so much wrong in it in terms of hurdling but still came out on top. Taking into account that Henderson hadn't had him long and this being his first run for him was probably more a case of lets have a look at what we've got rather than an all out prepared for the day must win this type scenario. That given I don't think the performance is too far removed from what you'd expect from a top Juvenile.

I honestly think I'm spending too long talking about what is most likely a Non runner but if people keep posing questions then I'll happily try to answer them best I can or at least my view on them.

[Double J]

Any news on whether Lalor will get a run after the passing of Richard Woolacott?
Appreciate it's still a bit raw, just merely wondering where things stand now with the stable etc.

[Danny]

Has there been any mention from connections about whether she goes to Newbury?

All being well she's a goer.

http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018/...-for-irish-roe

[Desert Orchid]

Okaydokey!

We'll find out later today how much her mark has gone up.

[Diamond Geezer]

Irish Roe 145 (+11)

[Desert Orchid]

Yes. Initial back-of-fag-pack calcs put her on 146 before any consideration of the times on the day. That would put her in with a favourite's chance, I'd say.

...

Edit - I should also mention that it will be interesting to see what the handicapper actually does. It looks like it was a true-run race so it's more likely that he will take the form somewhere close to face value, in which case he could put her up 12lbs.

I was just a pound out. I can live with that.

I still believe once the general betting public, not to mention the media pundits, realise this the price will start to contract.

In theory, she will be unusually well-handicapped. Were it an ordinary Saturday handicapped she'd be entitled to be evens favourite.

[Desert Orchid]

I've gone in again at 16/1 in the simple belief that she MUST shorten (assuming there are any serious handicapping enthusiasts out there).

Even in the Grand National such a handicapping situation would see the horse go down to single figures.

My plan, of course, is to lay the bet off at shorter but it doesn't alter the simple fact that on official ratings she will have the best chance in the race.

(But I still think Cliffs Of Dover, if it is genuinely the best hurdler in the yard, will 'do a Zarkandar'.

[Grasshopper]

Have followed you in at 16/1, DO.

Unusually for me, I've no strong opinion on the race, and she is undeniably well-handicapped. Good luck.

[Danny]

I'm going to take a look at this Cliffs Of Dover Des see what I make of him as you seem fairly keen on the idea and he is a hell of a price for this. Is it just a theory on the approach to the race that interests you re- repeating the way Nicholls did it with Zarkander or do you have a figure on him as well to back up the theory that he could improve up to Champion Hurdle class ?

[Desert Orchid]

I don't have a proper rating for him, Danny. It's more a matter of trying to read Nicholls.

We know he targets the race - as do so many - and it's fair to assume he only throws his best darts at it. Movewiththetimes last season, for example, would have been an impressive winner without Ballyandy who was then well fancied for the Supreme.

As I said earlier in the thread, COD is Nicholls's ONLY entry for the Champion Hurdle. The trainer has Old Guard running in good races off a mark in the high 150s yet he doesn't consider him even worth entering. I'm putting two and two together and maybe coming up with 22 but if COD is considered to be a better horse than Old Guard he must be close to or even better than 160, currently with an OR of 145. Zarkandar won the Betfair off a higher mark and then followed it up with a good run in the Champion as a 5yo. He went on the following season to a mark in the high 160s.

Cliffs Of Dover was, iirc, favourite for the Triumph before Christmas last season until injury forced him out. Defi Du Seuil is currently 157 and thought likely to be better. He was mooted as a possible winner of the Champion Hurdle, despite his age, this season. People fancied him for this off 157. Could COD be better than him?

As Kenny Dalglish would say, miibes aye, mibbes naw.

But I felt the price more than made up for the mibbes.

[Diamond Geezer]

Cliffs Of Dover more likely for the County Hurdle ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rac..._campaign=1490

[Danny]

I don't have a proper rating for him, Danny. It's more a matter of trying to read Nicholls.

We know he targets the race - as do so many - and it's fair to assume he only throws his best darts at it. Movewiththetimes last season, for example, would have been an impressive winner without Ballyandy who was then well fancied for the Supreme.

As I said earlier in the thread, COD is Nicholls's ONLY entry for the Champion Hurdle. The trainer has Old Guard running in good races off a mark in the high 150s yet he doesn't consider him even worth entering. I'm putting two and two together and maybe coming up with 22 but if COD is considered to be a better horse than Old Guard he must be close to or even better than 160, currently with an OR of 145. Zarkandar won the Betfair off a higher mark and then followed it up with a good run in the Champion as a 5yo. He went on the following season to a mark in the high 160s.

Cliffs Of Dover was, iirc, favourite for the Triumph before Christmas last season until injury forced him out. Defi Du Seuil is currently 157 and thought likely to be better. He was mooted as a possible winner of the Champion Hurdle, despite his age, this season. People fancied him for this off 157. Could COD be better than him?

As Kenny Dalglish would say, miibes aye, mibbes naw.

But I felt the price more than made up for the mibbes.

Cliffs Of Dover more likely for the County Hurdle ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rac..._campaign=1490

FWIW I thought that was absolutely sound reasoning for around 7 minutes.

[Desert Orchid]

[Desert Orchid]

At least the Cheltenham bets for COD are NRNB so no damage there but it looks like I've dunmadough for the Schweppes.

[Danny]

Console yourself with the fact your on the favourite at 16's Des and the fact we get the mouth watering prospect of "Kingwell's clash of the titans" dark horse against dark horse. "The Wellywanger at Wincaton " not exactly rumble in the jungle but it'll do.

[Desert Orchid]

At least the Cheltenham bets for COD are NRNB so no damage there but it looks like I've dunmadough for the Schweppes.

Hmmm... a wee glimmer of optimism this evening...

I thought maybe I was reading a wee bit too much into PN's comments today about COD missing Newbury in the sense that it seemed he was implying that the ground would be the real reason for missing it, and finishing off with a "we shall see" or words to that effect. The suspicious bastert in me wondered whether he was still seriously considering it but wanted to keep the horse under the radar.

The other day it had drifted to 50-odd at Betfair. Tonight it's back in to 37 and blue with a couple of firms.

I just wonder...

[Grasshopper]

Nicholls’ Champion Hurdle record is truly dire, DO. If he had one with a chance, I doubt if he’d be inclined to try and be too clever with it.

I personally couldn’t have this one for a CH, and he strikes me as being a Clerks Choice type of animal. Looks a bit optimistic, imo.