Page 4 of 13 FirstFirst 123456789 ... LastLast
Results 61 to 80 of 253

Thread: Betfair Hurdle

  1. #61
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    41 entries remain after today's scratchings

    Attachment 1665

  2. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Diamond Geezer For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (24th January 2018), viking (24th January 2018)

  3. #62
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Great to see Defi out of it. Hopefully goes ICH Saturday week.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  4. #63
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    All but guarantees Lalor a run. Least I'm getting a run for My money.

    Still liking Kayf Grace for this, sticking forecast on it as well.

  5. #64
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    I would think Lalor's participation may be doubtful still, Double J, given he was trained by Richard Woollacott.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  6. #65
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,592
    Thanks
    246
    Thanked 446 Times in 318 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I would think Lalor's participation may be doubtful still, Double J, given he was trained by Richard Woollacott.
    Have i missed something?

    Just seen now on the other thread. Truly terrible news
    Last edited by Double J; 24th January 2018 at 3:33 PM.

  7. #66
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    The one that really beams out at me at this stage is Irish Roe 25/1 with BFSP and Paddy power. Despite going up a stone for her last 3 runs I still have her as well handicapped. I'll post full thoughts if she makes the cut (still needs 6 to come out). She's entered up for the Mares race at Doncaster this weekend where looking at the entries she could well be facing animals who are supposedly rated vastly superior to her in the handicap. I think if lining up there she will run a big race and quite possibly advertise that she still has a fair bit up her sleeve. I'm not saying she'll win at the weekend as she's a full 16lbs wrong officially of market leader Marias benefit on Saturdays terms. Call me lord was my first ante-post hit of the season with not running in this and fairly likely that this could be my second but I can't resist a decent bet at 25's.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  8. #67
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    I'd say you're practically guaranteed to get a run, Danny.........or at least, you will comfortably make the field on numbers.

    Mullins has three above yours, and will almost-certainly run a maximum of one, and likewise, Henderson has four above you, and likely will only run two maximum........and that's without looking at anything else.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  9. #68
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Yeah Elgin supposedly going to Wincanton for the elite as well. That's what I thought that it would actually make the cut but be interesting to see what happens if taking her chance in the mares race on Saturday. I could have it all wrong but if I have her right then 25/1 will looks massive come the day. I had a good first part of the season but since returning after Christmas just been having a bit of a wobble and things starting to not quite go my way so that's tempering confidence atm. This game certainly knows how to keep you humble.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  10. #69
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    I suspect there might not be a cut this year. We might not get a full field.

    I'm more than happy to see Cliffs Of Dover still there. I was tempted to go in again with the Nicholls reps down to two and the other one seemingly exposed but the horse doesn't appear to be attracting any attention in the market so i'll continue to lurk for a wee while yet in case there is some doubt about its participation. I imagine very soft ground might be a concern.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #70
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    The one that really beams out at me at this stage is Irish Roe 25/1 with BFSP and Paddy power. Despite going up a stone for her last 3 runs I still have her as well handicapped. I'll post full thoughts if she makes the cut (still needs 6 to come out). She's entered up for the Mares race at Doncaster this weekend where looking at the entries she could well be facing animals who are supposedly rated vastly superior to her in the handicap. I think if lining up there she will run a big race and quite possibly advertise that she still has a fair bit up her sleeve. I'm not saying she'll win at the weekend as she's a full 16lbs wrong officially of market leader Marias benefit on Saturdays terms. Call me lord was my first ante-post hit of the season with not running in this and fairly likely that this could be my second but I can't resist a decent bet at 25's.
    Perfect today please run.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  12. #71
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Good shout, Danny. Do you think she might be flattered by today's run? Not sure what possessed the fav's jockey to put her so far clear like that so early but she did hold 'your' lass at bay. Maybe she was idling?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #72
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Maybe but they were a long way clear of the rest a few of who'm would be more highly rated than Irish roe I think. You could look at it the other way that they give marias benefit a soft lead ? I'm not sure I'll have a better look at it when I get chance but first impression is that she'll certainly have a bit in hand officially.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  14. #73
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    1,913
    Thanks
    138
    Thanked 120 Times in 105 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    My reading of it is Bromley thinks he's got a serious champion hurdle candidate and doesn't want him to have a hard time in his prep...my reading is more likely to be tainted by wishful thinking though haha
    Our Merlin did the form no harm today anyway, running off effectively 11 lbs higher than when beaten by CML.

    Beaten 2.5 Lengths today and CML (at his ease) beat him 3+ Lengths last day.

    Better ground likely to see CML to better effect too. I've had a pop EW at 40/1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle
    Last edited by Double Handful; 27th January 2018 at 5:29 PM.

  15. #74
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Our Merlin did the form no harm today anyway, running off effectively 11 lbs higher than when beaten by CML.

    Beaten 2.5 Lengths today and CML (at his ease) beat him 3+ Lengths last day.

    Better ground likely to see CML to better effect too. I've had a pop EW at 40/1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle
    It was a very unsatisfactory race, though, and Our Merlin was gifted a ten length start and an easy lead. I reckon more than half that field weren't off an inch and I wouldn't trust the form in the coming weeks.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #75
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Re-CML I'd be caught somewhere between both those views, who knows ?

    Re- Irish Roe Des I couldn't really take it in earlier as I was in the middle of doing my brains today strange really as the day has posed some positives from an ante-post perspective. Do I think she's flattered by proximity to Marias benefit or do I actually think Marias Benefit it worthy of 152 rating then probably not. What I would say though is that back in 3rd and 4th you have a 139 rated and 140 rated who are 7L and 8L who've run close enough to each other to suggest that's realistic. Irish Roe has put 7 lengths on them and is rated 134. I think even a conservative estimate of 144 gives her 10lbs in hand and that in itself is justification for her being one of the market leaders come off time in the Betfair providing of course she lines up.
    Last edited by Danny; 27th January 2018 at 6:10 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  17. #76
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Very strange Nicky is thinking Kingwell If it cuts up and it's a bad race it won't matter if he wins . Even if he beats Paddy McGinty's goat his a$$ is grass

    The handicapper will murder him and the County is then out of the window.........Like Brain Power a aery hard horse to place as he'd get kicked aside big time in the Champion

    If something like the New One turned up for the Kingwell and beat him a length that will really F*** him up.

    Best bet might be back him AP for the Arkle 2019 if you think he's that good
    Formely Fist of Fury

  18. #77
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Very strange Nicky is thinking Kingwell If it cuts up and it's a bad race it won't matter if he wins . Even if he beats Paddy McGinty's goat his a$$ is grass

    The handicapper will murder him and the County is then out of the window.........Like Brain Power a aery hard horse to place as he'd get kicked aside big time in the Champion

    If something like the New One turned up for the Kingwell and beat him a length that will really F*** him up.

    Best bet might be back him AP for the Arkle 2019 if you think he's that good
    I think if he wins a Kingwell then he's more than entitled to take his chance in a Champion Hurdle that lacks strength in depth. Ch'tibello's owner summed it up best for me recently when he said anything can be second including us.

    Why the devil i'd back something Ante-post for a novice chase when I've never seen him jump a fence or for that matter know how good he is, is beyond me. Have you been at the Yabba out there ? I still think people are missing the point of the champion hurdle bet. He will not run unless he does something between now and then. If he won a Kingwell at his age he'd be 12/1 max for an attempt for the big one. Probably even then Nicky would decide to keep him for Aintree or Punchestown and that would be time to bash your head up the wall with frustration but it certainly wouldn't be the first time I've done that when involved with a member of the Henderson Mob.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  19. #78
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Re- Irish Roe Des I couldn't really take it in earlier as I was in the middle of doing my brains today strange really as the day has posed some positives from an ante-post perspective. Do I think she's flattered by proximity to Marias benefit or do I actually think Marias Benefit it worthy of 152 rating then probably not. What I would say though is that back in 3rd and 4th you have a 139 rated and 140 rated who are 7L and 8L who've run close enough to each other to suggest that's realistic. Irish Roe has put 7 lengths on them and is rated 134. I think even a conservative estimate of 144 gives her 10lbs in hand and that in itself is justification for her being one of the market leaders come off time in the Betfair providing of course she lines up.
    Yes. Initial back-of-fag-pack calcs put her on 146 before any consideration of the times on the day. That would put her in with a favourite's chance, I'd say.

    On the downside, I don't like mares in those big handicaps. Her under-the-radar trainer might mean her price will be longer than it should be. Has there been any mention from connections about whether she goes to Newbury?

    Oh, and don't forget Vicario Di Bray...

    Edit - I should also mention that it will be interesting to see what the handicapper actually does. It looks like it was a true-run race so it's more likely that he will take the form somewhere close to face value, in which case he could put her up 12lbs.

    I think once that sinks in with the general betting public - ie that she's officially ridiculously well handicapped - and gets a proper mention on the racing TV programmes, it's unlikely she'll be a double-figure price.

    But if Cliffs Of Dover really is a Champion Hurdle contender it's game over for everyone
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 27th January 2018 at 9:18 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #79
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Whether or not she goes to Newbury is anyone's guess. The fact she had 3 runs in a month and then has been given a break and has run after the weights have come out looks like a well executed plan to me, providing she sneaks in. If the horse has come out of today well enough you'd have to be bonkers not to have a go at it wouldn't you Des ? Nearly a stone well in, big prize money it's the opportunity of a life time for a small yard.
    Last edited by Danny; 27th January 2018 at 11:55 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  21. #80
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,099
    Thanks
    349
    Thanked 766 Times in 655 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I think if he wins a Kingwell then he's more than entitled to take his chance in a Champion Hurdle that lacks strength in depth. Ch'tibello's owner summed it up best for me recently when he said anything can be second including us.

    Why the devil i'd back something Ante-post for a novice chase when I've never seen him jump a fence or for that matter know how good he is, is beyond me. Have you been at the Yabba out there ? I still think people are missing the point of the champion hurdle bet. He will not run unless he does something between now and then. If he won a Kingwell at his age he'd be 12/1 max for an attempt for the big one. Probably even then Nicky would decide to keep him for Aintree or Punchestown and that would be time to bash your head up the wall with frustration but it certainly wouldn't be the first time I've done that when involved with a member of the Henderson Mob.
    No I am not on Yabba ya fookin dumplin Winning the Kingwell entitles you to SFA if you beat a boat. Yanworth won it and failed miserably as did Melodic Rendezvous and Zarkandar others like Rayvin Black Blue Heron never even ran it the Champion. You have to go back to Binocular to find a top drawer hurdler and he was past his best by then and ended up unplaced. Last horse to win both was Katchit . This Champion Hurdle is no walk over with Buveur D'Air Faugheen My Tent of Your all tried and tested seasoned campaigners along with The New One Defi Du Seuil and Melon your mans Ch'tibello wouldn't get placed wittharocket tied to it's ass..........Call Me Sid has more chance than Call Me Lord IMVHO
    Formely Fist of Fury

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •