Betfair Hurdle

[archie]

Gordon isn't worried about Getabird because Samcro goes to the Ballymore (wins by 5l) and Getabird goes Supreme (wins by 5l). It's a 4/1 nrnb bog double.

I know we've got to fill in the next 4 weeks somehow but overthinking this just leads down a cul de sac.

[TheBear]

Elliott said exactly the opposite of that about Getabird. He was keen to avoid him.


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[Maruco]

I've also like Kalashnikov since his bumpers. The problem I have is that he's had a tough race on testing ground as an inexperienced horse. Not ideal for a tilt at the Supreme even if he does get his favoured ground. That said his current price is fair.

[tiggers1972]

I'd love to see Samcro V Getabird in the Supreme. Owned by the O'Leary's i think this may well happen.

[Len Madeiros]

I've also like Kalashnikov since his bumpers. The problem I have is that he's had a tough race on testing ground as an inexperienced horse. Not ideal for a tilt at the Supreme even if he does get his favoured ground. That said his current price is fair.

I like him a lot, Maruco, and everything you hear from connections is that he's a tough bugger. MTOY won the Betfair in similar conditions as a novice.

[wilsonl]

Novices that have performed well in the Betfair have a decent record of at least going close in the Supreme. Clearly down to the experience gained in a big field 2m hurdle run at a proper pace as opposed to many of the 5-6 runners trials races.

It's not hard to see him being pushed along coming down the hill but picking them off after the turn. The question is just how many will he pick off.

[Danny]

Damn my lack of interest in social media haha. I dare say they would know the horse best but the amount of times I've heard a trainer say a horse will be better on such and such ground and its turned out not to be. I think those 2 runs on Heavy ground are great runs but until I see it with my own eyes I won't believe he'll be better on a faster surface well not at 2 miles at least. If he does go to the supreme then we'll find out. I haven't really looked at his rating and my memory tends to fail me with regards what horses are generally rated after a Supreme win but I'm think low 150's usually. Off the top of my head I'd go for 149 on Saturdays performance so anything better than that and he'd be right in the mix.

It would be nice to see a small yard land a punch and as I have no serious interest in the race I'll cheer it on to get the better of the bigger operations horses.

[wilsonl]

He's just won off 141 and will probably go up to near 150. MTOY won the Betfair, effectively in a common canter off 149 before just failing in the Supreme but that wasn't through lack of ability.

[Len Madeiros]

Danny - much of it is conjecture and blind hope - punters and connections alike - particularly given that he is a novice. But he does look exciting, and there's no way I am having a word said against him.

[Diamond Geezer]

If you're into stats you may like to remember one for next year and that is that six of the last seven winners had not previously run in a handicap, there have not been many runners that satisfy the criteria either, for instance this year there were only four.

[Danny]

Elliott said exactly the opposite of that about Getabird. He was keen to avoid him.


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Haha Damn those Irish accents I could of swore he said wouldn't,not would be scared of him haha that's that theory gone up in smoke.

[Desert Orchid]

I've done another rough sectional dekko for Newbury on Saturday for the hurdles course. There were three races over the CD of the Betfair Hurdle. All timings start from the site of the first hurdle.

The novices' race was the slowest from H1 to H2 at 58s. The Betfair was 52s (about 33 lengths faster) and the NHF matched the Betfair so although they appeared to go fast early they maybe didn't. Either that or they've gone very fast in the bumper. I think it's much more likely the novices just went steadily.

From H2 to H3: the novices took 15s, the Bf 13s and the NHF 14s so the Bf field have moved five lengths ahead with the novices losing another five lengths.

From H3 to H4: the two later races both took 20s, the novices 21s so they've lost another five lengths.

From H4 to H5: the Bf maintained its pace, the NHF lost a second, the novices covered it in the same time as the NHFs.

From H5 to H6 (the long run round from the back straight to the home straight): the novices took 63s, the Bf 64 (so the pace is starting to tell) and the NHF 62s, so the bumper horses have picked up a bit.

H6 to H7: The novices and NHF both took 23s but the Bf took 25s, losing over ten lengths to the lesser horses.

H7 to H8: the novices have really quickened, covering it in 20s, fully 3s (16 lengths?) faster than the Bf and 2s faster than the NHFs.

H8 to WP: the novice winner has shot clear in 16s, both the Bf and NHF took 17s (despite the latter winner going clear too).

It looks like a slower first half of the race has allowed the novice winner to power home but still three seconds (a good 15 lengths) behind Kalashnikov at the line but the bumper winner has covered the C&D the distance faster again. There's obviously no hurdles to negotiate so the race should be faster but by how much?

I reckon the bumper winner must be good but on the same superficial basis of calculation, not in the same league as Blackbow and Rhinestone.

[Desert Orchid]

Just looking at that again, it means the novices have covered the stage from three out to the line roughly 33 lengths ahead of Kalshnikov. The NHFs have done it about 16 lengths faster than Kalashnikov.

Of course, the Bf was nearly 50 lengths faster than the novices up to three out and still about 16 lengths in front at the line. But the NHFs pretty much matched the Bf the whole way before leaving it about 16 lengths behind in the final stages.

Clearly the closing stages of the Betfair was a matter of who was slowing down the least.

[Maruco]

Len will be happy to hear that as it's a good guide to Kalashnikov's chance in the Supreme Maurice. They usually go a very good pace at Cheltenham and that suggests Kalashnikov can not only lay up with the likely pace, but also that he'll also be doing his best work at the end of the race, which is the perfect profile for a genuine contender.

[Desert Orchid]

I'm just wondering if it's an indication that the principals are stayers, at least of the future.

[Desert Orchid]

Kalashnikov up 13lbs to 154.

That gives an indication of where Irish Roe should have finished. She was 11lbs well in. On paper she should have been second, assuming no further progress from her last run. Unfortunately, the race was run in treacle and not on paper.

Kalshnikov, on that new rating, could well be placed in whatever race he runs in at the festival.

Or he might do an Irish Roe.

[wilsonl]

Irish Roe's OR before heading into the race on Saturday was based on a mares only conditions event - her Donny win prior to that didn't entitle he to be 145 rated.

There has to be a strong possibility that flattered her - in a similar, but admittedly far lesser way to the reaction around Bristol De Mai after Haydock. There were injury rumors about Maria's Benefit not long after the race and who's to say that didn't affect her performance.

I'd be much more inclined to take Kalashnikov's new rating at face value on the basis that this is traditionally one of, if not the, most competitive handicaps of the season and this year's renewal looked a very good one going into it.

I'd normally apply restraint to allow for the ground conditions but on both his style of running in Saturday's race and the stable's continued insistence that he'll be better on good ground I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

What is not in question is, be it the going slowing down the others or his make-up/attitude, he's very strong at the finish and if he can lay up with the pace in the Supreme on better ground then he'll be bang there at the finish.

[Desert Orchid]

Irish Roe's OR before heading into the race on Saturday was based on a mares only conditions event - her Donny win prior to that didn't entitle he to be 145 rated.

There has to be a strong possibility that flattered her - in a similar, but admittedly far lesser way to the reaction around Bristol De Mai after Haydock. There were injury rumors about Maria's Benefit not long after the race and who's to say that didn't affect her performance.

I'm not sure if the handicapper - I haven't got round to checking the blog page - took Maria's Benefit as the sole line of form in arriving at IR's new mark. I know I didn't. I rated IR on lines back to the third (in particular) and the other beaten horses, and it was a very true-run race. I have MB running a few pounds below form on the day on that basis.

Even allowing for IR's new rating being plain wrong, she still ran miles below her previous, upwardly-mobile form.

I'm prepared simply to put a line through Saturday's run and say that for whatever reason - ground, bounce, etc - she was never looking competitive from early in the race.

I fully expect her to show, in time, that she should have been second at worst in the Betfair. Not that second would have done me a blind bit of good as I'd backed her win only.

[Len Madeiros]

Kalashnikov up 13lbs to 154.

That gives an indication of where Irish Roe should have finished. She was 11lbs well in. On paper she should have been second, assuming no further progress from her last run. Unfortunately, the race was run in treacle and not on paper.

Kalshnikov, on that new rating, could well be placed in whatever race he runs in at the festival.

Or he might do an Irish Roe.

154 is Vautour, Douvan, Altior territory.

[Double Handful]

154 is Vautour, Douvan, Altior territory.

Was just thinking that Len. All 3 were rated 155 going into the supreme and after winning it Altior and Douvan both went up to 160, with Vautour going up to 158.

Conversely, MTOY went into his supreme rated 162 after his betfair hurdle win and was dropped to 158 after the Supreme. Maybe there's something in that too, in that due to the competitiveness of the Betfair, there's a tendency to over rate a novice?