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Thread: The Road to the Grand National 2018

  1. #161
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    Wasn't Rule the World trained by Mouse Morris or has the horse been moved ?

  2. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by frontrunner View Post
    Wasn't Rule the World trained by Mouse Morris or has the horse been moved ?
    I thought it was retired.

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    Retired after the Punchestown Festival two years ago.

  4. #164
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, my bad. I often mix up Meade and Morris.

    Obviously I knew RTW wasn't last year. I backed it and I also backed One For Arthur last year.
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  5. #165
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    I honestly can't see anything currently on offer at less than 20/1 being involved. Bellshill, if he turns up, might do the best of them but it's looking like the 11-0 mark or more is going make life very difficult to defy. I'm not basing that on stats. I'm basing it on handicap figures.

    Of the 40 likely to run, this will rule out the top ten in the current list of weights.
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  6. #166
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Bellshill is going for the Irish National........... if you believe Mullins

  7. #167
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    These are my own (MON B) ratings for the race. It's an edited version of the full table to enable it to transfer across to this format. Anything less than 184, or without the potential to be rated at least 184 on the scale, will need to hope those above it don't run to their best form on the day, which is entirely possible. The figures in brackets in the 'Notes' column refer to older form. Those annotated with a B relate to the main column. Ignore the A ratings as I've edited out that main column.

    Last year, for example, One For Arthur was just below the target figure but was a '+p' on my ratings (as was the runner-up Cause Of Causes). On my figures for the race itself he was a slightly above average winner. However, if Definitly Red had run to his pre-race figure (and he also had a 'p' next to it) he'd have dead-heated for first place. Unfortunately he was hampered out of it. That's the way it can go in the National in terms of luck but a badly-handicapped horse rarely wins.

    Saint Are last year, as another example, was simply not handicapped to win but he ran a career best and still couldn't get within 8 lengths of winning. And he wouldn't have been placed if others had been able to complete or fully stay.

    Unfortunately it isn't easy to know for sure what will stay and what won't until they've tried it, likewise with taking to the fences. But the winner, I must emphasise, will be handicapped to win. It would be quite rare for that not to be the case.


    No. Form Horse Age Wt Trainer OR MON B
    (184+)
    Notes
    48 5-090P Road To Riches 11 10-4 Noel Meade 142 197 ?
    {191?A}
    {199?B}
    47 -4UP84 Double Ross 12 10-5 Nigel Twiston-Davies 143 192½
    35 23-18P Virgilio 9 10-7 Dan Skelton 145 190½ p
    12 120-P6 Tenor Nivernais 11 11-0 Venetia Williams 152 190 ++?
    29 11F3-1 Bellshill 8 10-10 W P Mullins 148 190 ?
    50 -P84PF Thunder And Roses 10 10-4 M F Morris 142 190 (179A)
    (191B)
    28 419-0P Pleasant Company 10 10-10 W P Mullins 148 190 ?
    24 3/1P2- Seeyouatmidnight 10 10-11 Sandy Thomson 149 189½ ? p?
    53 P08207 Wounded Warrior 9 10-1 Noel Meade 139 189½ [185?A]
    [198½]
    52 -12423 Vintage Clouds 8 10-3 Sue Smith 141 189½
    54 -47046 General Principle 9 10-1 Gordon Elliott 139 189½
    49 -33135 Delusionofgrandeur 8 10-4 Sue Smith 142 189 p
    51 7-513P Walk In The Mill 8 10-3 Robert Walford 141 188½ p
    46 6-2359 Final Nudge 9 10-5 David Dennis 143 188½ p
    23 15-U22 Warriors Tale 9 10-11 Paul Nicholls 149 187½ p
    17 8-03P1 Regal Encore 10 10-12 Anthony Honeyball 150 187
    30 24U-2P Ucello Conti 10 10-9 Gordon Elliott 147 186½
    38 50/2-0 Pendra 10 10-7 Charlie Longsdon 145 186½ +
    36 13-663 Baie Des Iles 7 10-7 Ross O'Sullivan 145 186½
    44 6-PP1F Bless The Wings 13 10-5 Gordon Elliott 143 186½ +
    13 4-7U5P Carlingford Lough 12 11-0 John E Kiely 152 186 ? e
    (185?A)
    (192?B)
    11 PP2222 Shantou Flyer 8 11-1 Richard Hobson 153 185½ p
    31 F23-PP Saint Are 12 10-9 Tom George 147 185½
    33 0-F221 Raz De Maree 13 10-8 Gavin Cromwell 146 185
    41 -1663P Houblon Des Obeaux 11 10-6 Venetia Williams 144 185 (182A)
    (193B)
    14 F1-2UP Vicente 9 10-13 Paul Nicholls 151 184½ +p g?
    40 951-2P Childrens List 8 10-7 W P Mullins 145 184½ ?
    45 63U152 Milansbar 11 10-5 Neil King 143 184½
    26 45-F13 Gas Line Boy 12 10-10 Ian Williams 148 184 p
    18 16-474 Vieux Lion Rouge 9 10-12 David Pipe 150 184 p
    15 0-11U5 Go Conquer 9 10-13 Jonjo O'Neill 151 183½ +p
    19 112BU1 Rathvinden 10 10-12 W P Mullins 150 183
    21 -11992 A Genie In Abottle 7 10-11 Noel Meade 149 182½ ? p
    39 4-8610 Buywise 11 10-7 Evan Williams 145 182½
    9 P-0105 Perfect Candidate 11 11-2 Fergal O'Brien 154 182
    10 512-0P Cause Of Causes 10 11-1 Gordon Elliott 153 181½
    32 11-197 Beeves 11 10-9 Jennie Candlish 147 181½
    34 3-3412 I Just Know 8 10-7 Sue Smith 145 181½ ? p +?
    55 -1PPPP Vic De Touzaine 9 10-1 Venetia Williams 139 181½
    4 0-2243 The Last Samuri 10 11-7 Kim Bailey 159 180½ p
    6 5-111F Total Recall 9 11-4 W P Mullins 156 180 p? +?
    16 P-2P51 Tiger Roll 8 10-12 Gordon Elliott 150 180 +
    27 7-261P The Dutchman 8 10-10 Colin Tizzard 148 180 ? p
    43 -36121 Captain Redbeard 9 10-6 Stuart Coltherd 144 180 +? ++?
    42 2957-F Lord Windermere 12 10-6 J H Culloty 144 180 {192?A}
    {203?B}
    25 -214U0 As De Mee 8 10-11 Paul Nicholls 149 178½ p
    8 2F-11P Gold Present 8 11-3 Nicky Henderson 155 178½ p +?
    1 2-4P4F Minella Rocco 8 11-10 Jonjo O'Neill 162 178
    5 14-555 Valseur Lido 9 11-6 Henry De Bromhead 158 178 ? (182?A)
    (186?B)
    22 51-1PP Chase The Spud 10 10-11 Fergal O'Brien 149 177½ p
    7 414646 Alpha Des Obeaux 8 11-3 M F Morris 155 176½ (177?A)
    (182½?B)
    2 24-212 Blaklion 9 11-9 Nigel Twiston-Davies 161 175½ p
    3 -591F3 Anibale Fly 8 11-7 A J Martin 159 174½ p +?
    20 65-F2P Acapella Bourgeois 8 10-12 W P Mullins 150 ? (174?A)
    (175??+pB) v y
    37 04-443 Maggio 13 10-7 Patrick Griffin 145 ? [177A]
    [187½B]
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  9. #168
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    Thanks for those, Dessie. Is there any particular significance in the 184 cut-off?
    Last edited by archie; 25th March 2018 at 1:09 PM.
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  10. #169
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    Glad to see those Des as I already have a bit of involvement on Road to Riches believe it or not.
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  11. #170
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Thanks for those, Dessie. Is there any particular significance in the 184 cut-off?
    I wouldn't have cited it if there weren't

    That's the equivalent rating to Cause Of Causes' run in the race last year. Anything with that rating or the potential to reach it (or better) has the potential to be placed second in an average renewal. In 2016 it might have been good enough for fourth place.
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  12. #171
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    Cheers. I knew it wouldn't be a random figure but I wondered if it might be a mark a certain number of pounds below top rated.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another angle I like to keep onside is the class one. Most modern-day winners either have in their CV or have the potential to be a 160+ (at least on my ratings) horse. Again, using One For Arthur as an example, I had him on 157+p going into the race last year so it wasn't difficult to believe he had the class.

    Not many winners in the last 10-12 years miss out on that angle. I think maybe Auroras Encore was the last but he was extremely well handicapped, 6lbs lower than when beaten in a photo in the previous year's Ayr National, and there weren't many class horses in it that year. Of the 55 listed above, I can count at least 24 with the figure either there (current or back form) or potentially there.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 25th March 2018 at 2:24 PM.
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  15. #173
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    So am I right in saying Pleasant Company is a potential winner on your figures, Dessie? He holds an Irish National entry as well so I wonder what race they'll go for.

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    He's very much on my radar, Marble. He was looking like being involved in the finish last year when stumbling badly. Whether Ruby was planning on sticking with him or switching to Total Recall is another matter...
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  17. #175
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    Yet another angle I like to explore is the change in ratings from those that took part last year and who look set to turn up again this time. I allow two lengths per pound.

    Saint Are comes out best of them as he's on the same mark so in theory he can run the same race as last year. But his position in the table above illustrates how many horses are potentially better-handicapped than him. 66/1 could look good and it could look awful.

    Blaklion, the current favourite, is now weighted to finish nearly 20 lengths behind him. On my ratings he's 4lbs better this year so that can be reduced to 12 lengths but it still places him no better than about four lengths behind Gas Line Boy. If you believe he went too soon you could bring him forward but by how much? For me, still nowhere near enough to make him dangerous.

    Cause Of Causes (20/1) is weighted to finish two lengths behind Saint Are (66/1). Will Elliott have found more improvement in him? He'll need to.

    It's hard to say how much closer Pleasant Company (40/1) could have finished but for that terrible blunder last year (when he was only 11/1). If he had run to my pre-race figure for him he could have been third and he should be another two lengths closer this time.

    Another one who is better weighted this time is Lord Windermere, by three pounds or six lengths. But the formbook reckons he had a nightmare run last year:

    ... the Gold Cup winner of 2014, hasn't raced many times since and looked well handicapped if able to recapture his form in a first-time tongue-tie. Considering he got behind early, made several mistakes and was hampered more than once this has to go down as a blinding effort.
    He's also 66/1 but will probably be longer nearer the day.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 26th March 2018 at 10:52 PM.
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  19. #176
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    I'm not sure if you can take collateral lines of form too seriously from a cross country race given the different type of configuration of the course and the pace the races are generally run at. I keep looking at Tiger Roll and how he's put 13 lengths on The last Samuri at level weights given that he receives 9lb from him in the National he just looks a bit of a snip. Given how well The last Samuri was punted at Cheltenham it wasn't as though they were thinking it was just a prep run. If you looked at the lines and compared them with those against Blaklion I think it certainly highlights the task he faces if nothing else.
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    No, I don't take x-country form literally.

    As for the race the other week, The Last Samuri disappointed me. In my post-race analysis I wrote:

    I have to confess to being a little disappointed that The Last Samuri appeared not to get home, considering he has Grand National form. However, the form book race comment said he was sweating, something that has never happened before, and he was treated after the race for mild heat stress. Maybe he had an excuse but maybe it will happen again. Could his long, honourable career be catching up with his head? I might now try and lay off my bet on him (40/1) for the big one. With Cause Of Causes not running his race, Bless The Wings falling and Cantlow pulling up, Tiger Roll maybe didn’t have to do too much to win. He has improved past Auvergnat but that one lost its place mid-race and maybe didn’t really run to form. The French runner-up came from the back when nothing else did and maybe lost more ground than it was beaten by with a mistake three out. The fifth horse was only rated 130 so it might not have been that great a race.
    So, for me, for some reason or other, TLS has not run his race. At first I thought Tiger Roll had improved an awful lot and I got in at 50/1 before the bookies adjusted the price. I'd be happy to lay that off at a quarter of that now as the other lines suggest he didn't improve that much.
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  22. #178
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    Ive done two

    Pleasant company and Ucello conti took 33s both.
    I think Ucello conti is a really good price.

  23. #179
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've now watched the full race from last year another twice and from three out a further three times.

    Anything that finished behind Gas Line Boy can be eliminated from this year's race as a non-stayer, bar obviously those that were unlucky along the way.

    So the following have no chance:

    Vieux Lion Rouge
    Lord Windermere
    Regal Encore
    Pleasant Company
    Houblon Des Obeaux
    The Last Samuri*
    Tenor Nivernais*

    *I'm of a mood to forgive these two. TLS we know from the previous year does stay so presumably had a problem and his first couple of runs this season suggests he's improved again. He might not fancy another go, though. Tenor Nivernais for me has the ability to win so I won't desert him as I simply don't believe we've seen the real ability since Ascot last year.

    From 2016 I'd eliminate the following for the same reason:

    Ucello Conti
    Buywise
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    I always thought Amerberliegh house looked as if it didn't get the trip the year before it won it Des which would make me cautious with such an approach. I suppose I'm living in hope because I have rather chunky return on Vieux lion rouge if he can manage to frame via the place part of some ew doubles I included him in. I don't know whether you have it the same but I have him putting in a big figure in the National trial last year before he went to Aintree I'm wondering/hoping that was a reason for his powder puff finish last year. He's barely raised a gallop this year and hoping that helps him out come the day. Also feel he'd be dependant on having a decent surface to hold any chance whatsoever.

    Also ruling something like Ucello conti out on a non staying basis Des from 2016. What would your thoughts be on age? Off the top of my head is he a 10yo now ? Would he not stand more chance of getting the trip with another couple of years on his back ?
    Last edited by Danny; 28th March 2018 at 1:13 AM.
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