Key stats this century appear to be
Won over at least 3m previously
Aged 9 or older
Ran less than 50 days ago
Officially rated 137 or higher
Key stats this century appear to be
Won over at least 3m previously
Aged 9 or older
Ran less than 50 days ago
Officially rated 137 or higher
Timeform's guide to the runners
https://www.timeform.com/grand-national/runners
Carl (30th March 2018), Grasshopper (29th March 2018), jinnyj (28th March 2018)
Vieux Lion Rouge was one of the first I eliminated last year on the basis of his weak finish the year before. I still thought he'd run very well for a 7yo and expected him to do a wee bit better last year and he did but he was still left for dead from the last. He might stay a little better again this year but he's another pound higher. I think he'll be hunting up the placed horses again and, of course, if the proper stayers don't finish he could win by default.
Ucello Conti weakened more noticeably two years ago. He was another I eliminated straight away last year.
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Danny (29th March 2018)
They can't run unless they've been placed at 3m or more, and most of them will have won, so that first stat applies to nearly everything.
It's now taking a rating of about 144 (might be nearer 140 this year) to make the cut so the 137 rating would apply to just about everything too.
I've always liked older horses in the race but we've had two 8yos in the last three years. Could that be a new trend developing?
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th March 2018 at 9:21 AM.
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Splash of Ginge may not be the most consistent of animals but he is a horse with an awful lot of talent when he is right.
Winner of the Betfair and the Bet Victor he may not come across as a natural for a National but he wouldn't be the first 2m4f horse to win it.
What I like about him is he is the sort of horse that if he takes to something he's a very hard horse to beat.
If he gets a buzz from jumping the first few fences and likes what he's doing then it will take a good one to beat him.
I prefer Tiger Roll to Black Lion as he has more natural speed and I think he will stay
at the moment SPG and TR are my 2 against the field
Formely Fist of Fury
Captain Redbeard has come on to my radar, not so much because of his nice win at Haydock but because of his subsequent win over hurdles. My figure for him for that race was a long way ahead of anything he'd previously done over hurdles so if he can translate that improvement back over fences he could be nicely handicapped in much the same way Pineau De Re had prepped for his win.
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I've had a closer look at Seeyouatmidnight now that I've checked out his run at the weekend.
He could be a blot off 149.
He wasn't beaten far in the Stayers' Hurdle in Cole Harden's year and emerges a similar hurdler to Whisper, UTPT (a G1 winning hurdler) and, dare I say, Saphir Du Rheu who next time out won the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree for which he got an RPR of 168. As you know, I think UTPT could win a Gold Cup. Whisper went up to 169 for almost winning the Hennessy. Seeyouatmidnight off 149 anyone?
The following season SYAM beat Blaklion emerging roughly the same horse. Blaklion is now off 161. After disappointing in the RSA SYAM went close to winning the Scottish National despite taking a keen hold and not helping himself with a mistake at the last. He was a novice then and entitled to improve into his second season, as was Vicente who is now 5lbs higher.
There's a lot to like about Seeyouatmidnight, I have to say. Definite short-list material.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th March 2018 at 8:06 PM.
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Carl (29th March 2018), Colin Phillips (29th March 2018), Danny (29th March 2018)
Acapella Bourgeois
Digger has been an advocate of SYAM for a good while, and whilst I’m usually disposed to oppose anything he puts up, I confess I am a little enamourned of his Aintree chance myself.
I’ve also backed Go Conquer, who I strongly-fancied for the Ultima at Cheltenham. He front-runs and jumps well, and should be able to keep himself out of trouble. Stamina is an unknown, but on spring ground and with softer fences, horses that get themselves into a good rhythm, can stay in contention much longer than was perhaps once the case, and I don’t think you need to be an absolutely dour stayer to win the race these days. Go Conquer also holds the Topham entry, but a price of 66/1 is generous enough to tempt me into a Nash bet.
I also keep being drawn back to Minella Rocco, which is mildly worrying. I haven’t backed him yet, but I suspect there’s a certain inevitability about it.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Timeform had this to say about Go Conquer:
Strong-travelling front runner who could be dangerous if getting in a good rhythm.
I promise you I hadn't read it before I posted.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
This is the only bit I'd disagree with. If you look through the last three or four runnings from three out you'll how they go from being relatively well grouped to - especially from the last to the line - well strung out, because it's only the ones who really do stay who end up winning or going close.
Three or four of the books are now NRNB and B365 also offer the BOG.
Edit - I like Go Conquer too because his form ties in with last year's Ultima and Tenor Nivernais's Ascot race. I'm just not sure he's well enough handicapped.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 29th March 2018 at 9:17 AM.
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SYAM and Go Conquer are two on my (fairly long) shortlist at the moment. Two more I like that could still retain sufficient class off their current marks are Road To Riches and Carlingford Lough. You could probably ask why I haven't got Lord Windemere in that category, so I'll just say one word in my defence, 'Culloty'.
The others I have to whittle down from are Vicente, Vintage Clouds, Delusionofgrandeur, Bellshill, I Just Know, Tiger Roll, and Tenor Ninervais.
I'll end up backing four from that list, but I haven't got the headspace at the moment to figure out which four.
If anyone has any good reasons to eliminate any of those however, I'm happy to hear them.
Yeah......I kind of wasn't happy with the wording on it myself.
I guess what I was trying to say is that whilst you undoubtedly have to stay to win the race, there have been winners who were able to win at significantly shorter trips too i.e. horse's you wouldn't have defined as "absolutely dour stayers".
I'll try to demonstrate using practical examples - it might help.
One For Arthur would be the type of Nash winner I'd define as "absolutely a dour stayer". He is a horse that would be unsighted in any decent chase over 3 miles, and all he does is gallop forever. Many Clouds is a different type of Nash winner to OFA, as had plenty of smart Graded-level form at trips around 3m, before landing his Nash. Many Clouds would be a horse I'd describe as a "high-class stayer between 3-4m" rather than an "absolutely dour stayer". The point being, that there is really no identikit winner, and that very few of them go into the race anyway, with their stamina conclusively-proven at 4m.
I have Go Conquer down as being more of a Many Clouds type, than a One For Arthur type, hence I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt as regards his stamina..........but clearly, he will have to stay, to win.
Hope this helps clarify what I meant.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 29th March 2018 at 9:51 AM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Totally agree / understand.
This type is what I refer to as the 'class' type, the minor difference being that I want them to have a 160 (on my ratings, probably the equivalent of 155 on RPRs or maybe ORs) on their CV or in their locker. Many Clouds* had it and Go Conquer (160+p on my figures) has it.
* Edit - I should add that it still bemuses me that I didn't back Many Clouds that day. Hennessy winner etc etc and even after the race I was looking through my notes to see how much I had on it. Couldn't believe it when I discovered I didn't have a penny on it! My big bet that year was The Druids Nephew who was several lengths clear and lobbing when taking a very soft fall five or six out. Would he have done a Blaklion or a Ben Nevis?
My biggest bet last year ended up being Definitly Red.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 29th March 2018 at 1:42 PM.
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Grasshopper (29th March 2018)
I like the classy type that stays 3m+ on soft ground. Give them an extra mile to run on better ground, and the bookies tend to overlook them as all their winning form is on the soft. Many Clouds fitted that profile. I'm drawn to the Carlingford Lough and R2R because of this, but I don't tend to back National horses with such poor recent form.
Connections saying Cause Of Causes won't run, still lame following Cheltenham
Desert Orchid (29th March 2018), edgt (29th March 2018), viking (29th March 2018)
The site has changed its forecast since I last looked. It's now saying there will be plenty of rain in the days leading up to the meeting and on the Thursday and Friday. Sunshine on the Saturday but that's fvck all good if the ground is already soft.
It's almost a total reversal of the previous forecast which had said virtually no rain up to and right through the meeting.
I hope its long term forecast for the Glasgow area for the summer is wrong. It's forecasting a long cold wet summer. I really need to get buggering off to Spain for good.
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Jesus ******* christ, will this **** weather never end. Aintree will be a horror show on deep ground and I won't be taking part. Looking forward to the flat now.
I like horror shows.
Agree about the flat. I wouldn't usually be welcoming its return like.