What granger says.
Comparison with the Fly not really valid I don't think, Eddie. Hurricane Fly had been failing to please Mullins in his work in 2011/2012 season, and missed both the Morgiana and the December Hurdle because of it. Altior really only had a delayed start because of his wind-op.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Just looking through the Handicaps in more detail this morning, Maruco, and Ordinary World certainly had his H'Cap mark blown.
In fact, of all of the Phil Smith UK added lbs to Irish horses, this stands out to me as one of, if not the most unfair!
He raced off 149 lto at the DRF and Phil Smith has given him 157 for Cheltenham! As eye catching as that run was I think 8lbs is too harsh.
Effectively rules out the Grand annual completely and with Douvan apparently an increasingly likely runner in the QMCC, getting placed in it now seems a very tall order indeed.
Last edited by Double Handful; 3rd March 2018 at 10:08 AM.
Yes I agree DH. I wonder if they might bypass the Uk altogether and wait for Fairyhouse.
Interestingly, shortly after my above post I listened to the most recent Final Furlong podcast where Rory Delargy & Kevin Blake were debating Ordinary Worlds chances in the Grand Annual. Firstly, they were very sure that he would definitely be going for the GA (rightly or wrongly?), and the QMCC wasn't even mentioned. Blake didn't give him much hope but Delargy was adamant that the handicaps have evolved somewhat and that class is coming to the fore on a more regular basis. And that he's a believer in looking towards the top of the handicap and a 'Class' horse carrying 11-12 wouldn't put him off at all. He was quite keen on OW's chances.
Last edited by Double Handful; 3rd March 2018 at 7:12 PM.
I've just watched the 2m chase at the DRF again now. I've tried to view it with a fresh and open mind after listening to Delargy's comments.
Min was put up from OR 160 to 167 after the victory. Ordinary World was jumping the last almost upsides. He was at most a length down on landing over the last.
Now, Danny Mullins hadn't touched Min yet and was still on the bridle. OW had been shuffled/ridden along to close approaching the last, but the whip had yet to be drawn on either. It's subjective and debatable just how close OW would have finished to Min, as Min did power up the home straight. But lets just say OW would have got to within 2 lengths at the line and Min's OR of 167 is accurate. What would that make Ordinary Worlds 'true' rating? 162/163 perhaps?
I suppose I'm trying to objectively make the case that Ordinary world off 157 in the Grand Annual could possibly still have 5 or 6 lbs in hand. I'm having 2nd thoughts now about discounting him for the GA. I'll be watching QMCC declarations closely as if he is not declared it's encouragement that connections think he can be competitive in the GA off 157.
Think it's dangerous to mark the horse-up so close to the winner, who was going effortlessly, Shane. Min would have been value for a LOT more than 2lbs, even if OW had got over the last cleanly.
A 160+ rating is high-class, and not much of a kick in the arse off top-class, and you should take OWs other efforts into account, when assessing whether he is genuinely in that bracket.
For my money, his race-record says that he is almost certainly not at that level, and I'd say a mark of 157 is possibly even a little on the harsh side, for a horse that couldn't take advantage of a 10lbs weight-concession from Ball D'Arc (albeit FTO against a race-fit rival), and who finished 15L behind Min, the time before. His Irish OR of 155 looks about bang-on to me.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 3rd March 2018 at 8:42 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
My inclination is to offer you some encouragement, DH.
That said, my angle for the race is to ignore Min altogether. It was a very fast race, made so by Special Tiara who probably went too fast up front and Min was ridden to make sure ST didn't get a free, easy lead. Ordinary World was kept back with the small midfield group, probably getting a more efficient ride, as was Simply Ned. Two out he and Simply Ned had closed down Min, who had closed down Special Tiara, but Min was still to be asked a question. Going to the last Ordinary World, under strong riding was getting away from Simply Ned but Min wasn't asked to do anything until leaving the last when he powered away. My gut instinct is to 'split the diff' between Min and Simply Ned, say six lengths (7lbs in my book), and rate the race via the ones around Simply Ned. It then all depends on how you rate the running of Simply Ned and Special Tiara.
Simply Ned's OR was 158 and he was giving OW 3lbs, so I'd be looking at 162 for Ordinary World. It means Special Tiara was below his peak by a few pounds, which can be explained by going too fast through the middle mile.
Then again, I think Simply Ned may be better than 158. I need to double-check but I have his best rating from last season at 164. The difficulty with that is that it makes Min uncomfortably high on 178+. My time ratings have Min on 175 which I think makes more sense as it also allows for him being better than the bare form since he wasn't at the extreme limit of his ability. That would put Ordinary World on about 166, which would put him in with a chance in the Grand Annual.
For me, though, I'm also in the camp that looks for class in this race and for horses that should be contesting Graded races but are being kept away from them to preserve lenient marks and I would suspect (haven't done my figures for the GA yet) that there's something not far below the top weights that are even better handicapped than Ordinary World.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th March 2018 at 1:02 AM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Double Handful (4th March 2018)
Cheers for the input DO. As a matter of interest if you have Min 175 rated, what do you have Altior rated on the same scale?
Given the type of horse Chris Jones likes to acquire, owning a top class 2 miler is probably not a stated aim.
Only a very soft festival would possibly slow others down and bring them back to OW rather than vice versa.
I would think he'll be stepped up next term and aimed at a big handicap somewhere.
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I think there's possibly a little bit left in his mark, but you've got to think there will be plenty of others on good marks in the Grand Annual, and I'm not sure that's where I'd test it.
My immediate thoughts were to save him for one of the other Festivals, and I'm also thinking he's bred to appreciate a step up in trip, so they might want to see if they can eek out a bit more improvement over the intermediate trip. He'd be interesting for next seasons Paddy Power off his current mark.
I can't see Min getting anywhere near Altior. I reckon it's safe to say both are better chasers than they were hurdlers and before someone brings Buveur D'Air into the equation don't even go there.
While Altior wasn't at his best in his Arkle win he has shown no hint that he has gone backwards for the switch and Min has done nothing to have me thinking he's suddenly the nest coming.
The ++ on those 176 I can agree with but the 175 Min is nonsense...Ordinary World 149 rated right there at the last??? He wouldn't get near Altior getting a stone IMO
Formely Fist of Fury
6 days decs
Danny (8th March 2018)
Ordinary World left in ........
Anyone have a think if Douvan doesn't go they would send UDS and stick Yorkhill in the Ryanair? I'll be ******* ill if they do.
No. It would have to be bottomless for them to divert UDS