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Thread: The Road To The 2018 Champion Chase

  1. #421
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    Not sure what else you could ask the horse to do after 200+ days off the track, first time out, against a horse who is race fit and won a Tingle Creek (yes, a below par one I know). That was some performance. You cannot help but love Altior, what a cracker.

  2. #422
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    Very impressive comeback especially that characteristic pulling right away close home albeit I think Politologue is a better horse with a lead and without STD on.

    Valdez ran an absolute blinder considering his stumble three out and that he was not knocked about for a horse that had been off for 3 and a half years.

  3. #423
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    As impressive as Altior was Politologue was never going to beat him. He was too hesitant at several fences and never really applied the pressure I was expecting.

    That said clearly Altior is a stone better than him.

    What a fantastic race it will be if ever a 100% Douvan comes back
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #424
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    Very impressive comeback especially that characteristic pulling right away close home albeit I think Politologue is a better horse with a lead and without STD on.

    Valdez ran an absolute blinder considering his stumble three out and that he was not knocked about for a horse that had been off for 3 and a half years.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    As impressive as Altior was Politologue was never going to beat him. He was too hesitant at several fences and never really applied the pressure I was expecting.

    That said clearly Altior is a stone better than him.

    What a fantastic race it will be if ever a 100% Douvan comes back
    And Altior will hump him just like Min in the Supreme!
    He's a very special horse.

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    And Altior will hump him just like Min in the Supreme!
    He's a very special horse.
    Special Tiara will still place.

  6. #426
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Digger View Post
    Special Tiara will still place.

    I agree.....probably around 7th or 8th!
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  7. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Digger View Post
    Special Tiara will still place.
    not really like last year where if one bombs he has a chance to win and a solid place chance vs the rest. likely going to be more depth to this years race. not to mention horse is probably on the downgrade by now.

    even with his preferred ground i'd be surprised if he's placed.

  8. #428
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I can't see Politilogue or Min trying to outsprint Altior from the last.. they a have to go for it just after 3 out and that's when I can see ST going backwards at a rate of knotts..have to agree big ask for him to get placed this time
    Formely Fist of Fury

  9. #429
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    I still hold the opinion that a unique set of circumstances in last years race meant Special Tiara got very lucky. When he bombed off in front all the others thought they’d let Douvan reel him in and then pick up whatever scraps were left. It was only half way down the hill they realised Douvan wasn’t right and by that time it was game over.


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  10. #430
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    I still hold the opinion that a unique set of circumstances in last years race meant Special Tiara got very lucky. When he bombed off in front all the others thought they’d let Douvan reel him in and then pick up whatever scraps were left. It was only half way down the hill they realised Douvan wasn’t right and by that time it was game over.
    Been reading my mail, Bear?

    This is what I wrote in my review of last year's race:

    I’m taking the unusual step of rating the runner-up higher than the winner here, for two reasons. I think Special Tiara is unlikely to be improving at his age so I’ve rated him tentatively on my highest previous best for him. He very much got his own way out in front with the rest of the field keeping more than half an eye on Douvan and maybe Fox Norton. Fehily was astute enough to take advantage of this by keeping the horse in his comfort zone in a nice rhythm and then kicking on just as the others were realising he was going to be hard to peg back. I think he has run in one race and the rest in another.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #431
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Anything on Great field?
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  12. #432
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Haven't heard a peep since Frankie Tight-Lips gave a moderately upbeat bulletin a month-ago.....along the lines of he's overcome his setback, and might make Cheltenham.

    Not sure it makes much difference if he does make it. Altior is going to be hard beaten in the QMCC.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  13. #433
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    I still hold the opinion that a unique set of circumstances in last years race meant Special Tiara got very lucky. When he bombed off in front all the others thought they’d let Douvan reel him in and then pick up whatever scraps were left. It was only half way down the hill they realised Douvan wasn’t right and by that time it was game over.


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    Spot on Bear. I love the horse, but he'll get swallowed up round the bend and over the last this year
    Last edited by Maruco; 11th February 2018 at 7:45 PM.

  14. #434
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    I posted something similar at the time DO but good to know great minds think alike

  15. #435
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #436
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    Special Tiara seems to be in better form than last year when he was much further behind in the Shloer . He is a completely different horse on spring ground -always has been.

  17. #437
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    Explain the run against UDS. Special Tiara is a very under rated horse, mainly because he never gets his wanted ground.
    Will place in this race, definately won't be challenging Altior though.
    Last edited by Double J; 12th February 2018 at 1:49 AM.

  18. #438
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Be lucky if there’s eight runners, given the strength of the front pair. No way he places as an 11yo.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  19. #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Be lucky if there’s eight runners, given the strength of the front pair. No way he places as an 11yo.
    Altior
    Min
    UDS - Wont run
    Fox Norton - Wont run
    Waiting Patiently - Wont run
    Politilogue - too slow.
    Douvan - Wont run
    Great Field - Wont run

    Assuming a bunch of others make up the 8+ then I think he places all day long. He is a different horse in March at Cheltenham.

  20. #440
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    From Timeform:



    e – and by ‘we’ I mean @UTVilla – drilled deep into the Timeform data for similar scenarios, analysing the good-class chasers (rated 150+), since the start of the 2005/6 season, who returned from a protracted absence (275 days or more), post the New Year, and ran again within 40 days. Basically, assessing the Cheltenham-class chasers who found themselves rushing to Cheltenham. Riverside Theatre is indeed the outlier, as he was the only one, from a long list of 106 qualifiers, who won both on his comeback and his next race. That’s an eye-opening statistic.

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    Len Madeiros (12th February 2018)

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