Cheltenham Festival 2018 Antepost Bets

[Double J]

Thanks for both taking the time to reply with honesty, and great detail. Both top reads.

For myself it's a case of working out whether I'm a gambler or doing half educated betting. I find myself getting a lot of abuse of the mother or Mrs if I lose something silly like a tenner on a horse, and get you've got a problem or from my mother, you're turning into your Grandad (used to be a bookie)

I do my nut in at work doing similar to Danny and around 60-80 hours a week. Since the 17th December I've had 3 days off and usually doing 12 hours or more a day. Hence the late reply, I've just finished having started at 10am. Cheffing sucks, well the hours do anyway.

For me i just want to learn more and know where I'm going wrong so I don't get as much ****, and try to make less mistakes when gambling on certain horses. Although I don't lose much, never more than £30 a week. I find myself hiding winnings from the other half and sticking them into an Anti Post book I've got going. Again, is that gambling or educated betting? If she knew how much was staked (only a few hundred) she would honestly probably walk out. (We want a mortgage and making savings where we can) But if I have a decent win that i share, she's the first to dip her paws in.

All which ties into my job. Will it only ever be half educated without the time and botheredness to sit down and put the time in working out form etc?

Also, can you blindly follow one horse? Around 35-40% of my AP book is down the swanner cause I foolishly was blinded by Finians Oscar. The same horse cost me winning a small fortune this weekend, still regret not cashing out now when I wasn't convinced.

It just seems like yourself Danny, DO and a few other posters on here are far more educated on racing, just a case of me learning where I can. Only been trying this game proper for around 2 years. I've always followed the National and Cheltenham but always backed names, honestly. I cringe looking back. Although if Annie Power didn't fall at the last i probably wouldn't even be typing this out.

Hope this doesn't sound like I need a counselling session too much.

[Danny]

Double J still at work just on my break so can't really post a decent response but will do so if I get the time at some point this week. Although it might be actually worth starting a new thread rather than cluttering up the ante-post thread with general betting advice.

In general though first thing is first - take a step back.

The first thing you need to do is know what you want, know what your aiming to achieve because quite frankly if you don't know what you want then how the **** do you expect to achieve it.

35-40% of your antepost book down the swanny on 1 horse. O.K I don't know what you backed it for or when you backed it or at what price. If you backed it to win a novice chase months ago before you'd seen it jump a fence then personally I would always be against such things. What's more important is your view of it. Would you say with hindsight it was a mistake ? If so will you do something similar next year ? Make a mistake once that's o.k the second time is not a mistake it's a choice. You will make mistakes we all do but the fastest way to progress is by learning from them and not repeating them.

If you view other people as more educated than your self then stop ! Educate yourself and move on. This game has been here a long time before you and I and it will still be here tomorrow and probably long after we're gone. So what's the rush ? Sometimes the art of doing nothing is better than making a complete hash of things.

I'll try as I said to post some stuff that might help and I dare say others will contribute too. I might not know what's right but I may be able to steer you well clear of what's wrong and from making more mistakes as I should think I've made most of them.

[Danny]

Actually just had a thought Double J that might cheer you up, what have you backed FO to win ? Because I'm sure I've read somewhere that he'll have a breathing op and return to fences. So you might still be in with a live ticket.

[Grasshopper]

FO wont win anything at Cheltenham - fences or hurdles. The horse is a goner.

[Desert Orchid]

It just seems like yourself Danny, DO and a few other posters on here are far more educated on racing, just a case of me learning where I can. Only been trying this game proper for around 2 years.

Two years is nothing, Double J. Don't try and get ahead of yourself. Take a step back, work out what you're good at or what works for you and work on those things.

You're at a huge advantage compared with where I was at your age. (Don't know your age but after two years serious study I was about 20.)

I used to spend hours on Mondays - Wednesdays working out the official ratings before they were ever made public! I had to extrapolate from the top weights in handicaps what the official rating for any horse in any race was by checking the next week's entries against the last week's form.

Now you have it all laid out for you. You just need to satisfy yourself that you're using it all to best advantage. May I suggest the Irish Roe discussion is a good example.

[wilsonl]

I don't mean to sound condescending but it's harder to make money gambling if you have financial constraints and are trying to balance family, work, mortgage etc. I sincerely wish you the best of luck DJ but if you're in a position where you feel the missus would leave you were to discover how much you'd bet I suggest you take a step back, talk to her and explain it's your passion then come up with a plan which will best allow you to enjoy the sport without the risk and therefore hopefully without the suspicious & judging behavior from those close to you.

Agreed that, while an interesting topic, it should be moved out of the AP thread.

[Double J]

I won't post anything else after this as to not take the thread completely off topic, but thanks for the replies.

In terms of taking a step back I don't feel i need to, obviously don't win every race but I'm certainly not losing anything major. Its as someone above said, learn from Your mistakes and don't make them again. I.e backing a horse that a never jumped a fence 'because I like him'

In terms of the Mrs, I probably don't tell her to just save an argument. That's probably because she's blinkered to horse racing as it 'cruel'. Certainly ear ache I can do without. Especially with the stresses of working every hour to get this deposit together.

In terms of what i'm good at, probably graded races, no doubt I'm in profit for these this season. Bad spots, liking a horse too much, and distinguishing between it needing a run, and that's the max of the ability. That I'm sure will come more in time.

Thanks for all taking the time anyway, still learning a damn lot about this game, surprising how much there is. And Danny, I'll let you know tomorrow about Mohayeed, got some rare and much needed time off this week.

[Grasshopper]

Double J, I think there was a thread started a while back - probably a goodish while back - which was long the lines of "Things you know now, you wished you'd known when you started betting". I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of it. You might find some things in there, that you can take on board.

[Carl]

I know the thread went off topic a bit there but great posts to read nonetheless, best of luck to yous lads.

[LUKE]

Can't see that happening to be honest but it's a risk I don't mind taking.

Only saw the race on Sunday night -he is horrendous-unnatural tail carriage.

[LUKE]

Very interesting posts from Danny and Double J-maybe we should start a gambling stories thread.

[Desert Orchid]

Only saw the race on Sunday night -he is horrendous-unnatural tail carriage.

I was deeply unimpressed myself.

It was a leap of faith at the time. As someone once said, the worst leap you can take is the one that requires a step in the middle.

[LUKE]

I'd say they went there on Saturday knowing he had zero chance of winning and he won't be trying to win anything before summer jumping starts.

[Euronymous]

If you want to test yourself a bit Double J take a look at a horse called Mohaayed and try and come up with how you might rate him and then ask if he's really a 33/1 NRNB shot for a county hurdle if lining up. If you take a look and see what you come up with and I'll post my views as to why I think its more than possible he still has a few pounds in hand and could be a contender for the county.

Amour De Nuit represents his form on Saturday in the Scottish County Hurdle. Presuming he goes as Nicholls won the race last year so likes to target it with a nice type (Diego Du Charmil)

[TheBear]

Started going through each race in detail. Just backed Western Ryder at 33's for the Supreme. Hopefully he'll win his prep later this week and there will be no silly thoughts of going for the Ballymore. He has strong course form and I'm happy to put a line through his Sandown run.

I'm not big for a/p post bets a long way out but did have a dabble at a few multiples. Two of them are struggling thanks to Sharjah and Finians Oscar disappointing, however I do have a win treble on Buveur D'air, Samcro & Cause Of Causes still going. Watching Samcro **** up at 2 miles at the weekend was bittersweet.

[Desert Orchid]

I wouldn't give up on Sharjah, Bear.

I plan to look a bit more closely at last weekend's race tomorrow when I get the hard copy form in but I honestly don't think Sharjah (or Real Steel) was anywhere near form. I think it's possible both of them weren't over their previous run or had maybe been given an easy time since then because it was such a fast run race and they've been looked after. I fully expect the real Sharjah to turn up in March.

[Desert Orchid]

I've taken a couple more a/p bets today.

Scarlet Dragon 33/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Supreme

Rhinestone 10/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Bumper

Scarlet Dragon's peak Flat rating for me is about 110 so if he can translate that class across he must have a chance. He makes his debut this weekend and will almost certainly shorten up if he wins.

I suspect I might find myself chipping away at Rhinestone over the coming weeks, unless his price takes a sudden tumble. I have a huge time for his run against Blackbow at the weekend and it may be that one or other of this pair wins. I thought Rhinestone looked the better prospect on the day having been maybe a wee bit over-confidently ridden and closing down the winner after giving him first run. He ran the course and distance (without having to negotiate any hurdles, mind) 0.3 seconds faster than Supasundae. I also believe the rails for that race were dolled out a little but I'll need to check the replays to make sure of that.

[Euronymous]

Full up to date list including top up's.

Supreme - Sharjah 12/1
Arkle - Finian's Oscar 20/1
Ultima - Singlefarmpayment 16/1
CH - Melon 25/1
CH - Yorkhill 10/1

Ballymore - On the Blind Side 10/1
RSA - Monalee 10/1 and 6/1 NRNB
RSA - Finian's Oscar 16/1
RSA - Invitation Only 10/1 NRNB
RSA - Al Boum Photo 14/1 NRNB
QM - Min 8/1

JLT - Al Boum Photo 9/1 NRNB
JLT - Invitation Only 14/1 and 6/1 NRNB
Ryanair - Top Notch 16/1 and 5/1 NRNB
Ryanair - Disko 10/1 NRNB
Coney Island 40
Stayers - L'Ami Serge 16/1 and 10/1 NRNB
Stayers - Penhill 10/1 NRNB

Triumph - Farclas 20/1
GC - Might Bite 12/1 and 7/2 NRNB
GC - Yorkhill 12/1
GC - Djakadam 42

Any Race - Finian's Oscar 9/1
Any Race - Min 6/1
Any Race - Al Boum Photo 14/1

Doubles:
UDS (Clarence) Singlefarmpayment (Ultima) 4/6 & 14/1
UDS (Clarence) Fountains Windfall (RSA) 8/11 & 7/1
UDS (Clarence) Supersundae (Stayers) 8/15 & 7/1

Singlefarmpayment (Ultima) Willoughby Court (JLT) 10/1 & 4/1 NRNB
Samcro (Bally) Presenting Percy (RSA) 2/1 & 7/1
Buveur D'air (CH) Death Duty (JLT) 3/1 & 8/1

Added recently:
Jury Duty (NHC) 14s
Barney Dwan (Close Bros) 12s ew NRNB

Getabird (Ballymore) 17 (just in case Samcro goes for the Supreme)

Coney Island (Ryanair) top up's at 14s ew and 11s ew NRNB
Tully East (Plate) 10s NRNB
The Storyteller (Plate) 14s ew NRNB
Irish Roe (Mares Novice) 16s ew

Trix: Footpad (Arkle) evs, Altior (QM) 11/8, UDS (Ryanair) 3s

[Grasshopper]

I've taken a couple more a/p bets today.

Scarlet Dragon 33/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Supreme

Rhinestone 10/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Bumper

Scarlet Dragon's peak Flat rating for me is about 110 so if he can translate that class across he must have a chance. He makes his debut this weekend and will almost certainly shorten up if he wins.

I suspect I might find myself chipping away at Rhinestone over the coming weeks, unless his price takes a sudden tumble. I have a huge time for his run against Blackbow at the weekend and it may be that one or other of this pair wins. I thought Rhinestone looked the better prospect on the day having been maybe a wee bit over-confidently ridden and closing down the winner after giving him first run. He ran the course and distance (without having to negotiate any hurdles, mind) 0.3 seconds faster than Supasundae. I also believe the rails for that race were dolled out a little but I'll need to check the replays to make sure of that.

Which book is going both NRNB and Best Odds, DO??

[Desert Orchid]

B365 for most races (not the bumper, I don't think).

Sky Bet both nrnb & bog for the bumper earlier today.