Noted, Danny. The course will doubtless have a more robust forecast than me, though even they seem to suggest that Good-to-Soft is more likely than Soft.
To be honest, I’m not concerrned about the ground, and reckon it will be perfectly fair for all concerned.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Very possible Nicky can have a 1-2 in this as the opposition is at least questionable.
Bristol De Mai is extremely guilty of throwing the toys out of the pram if he come under pressure and I can't see that not happening.
Thistlecrack would be a danger if recapturing his best form and indications are from Scu he has but like all jockeys he is speaking from a biased and hopeful position
Fox Norton Can I understand them thinking they can do a Sizing John up in trip with him? Yes... Do I think he has a chance? Not a hope in hell place lay of the meeting
Whisper, Fences are some of the stiffest in the country and one mistake can stop a horse and are a definite worry with him. He's a very tough horse and if putting in a clear round a place looks certain
Traffic Fluide constant loser who wouldn't win a 24 mile steeplechase fur untried broodmares..total waste of money and time running him
Tea for Two..Can't help but think this has been the one and only target form him and the others were a case of training on the racecourse. Probably will run his best race of the season so far but still a huge ask.
Disko His win over Ballyosin doesn't read too well and failed the test at the festival behind Yorkhill. A year on who knows but he does need to improve big time to take a hand.
Might Bite. His antics more than what he has actually achieved have thrown him into the limelight. His amazing time before falling in the Feltham then that freakie win against Whisper at Cheltenham.
Other than that he won a pretty normal chase on his return. He deserves to be fav but is not the world beater some are saying at least not yet but winning this will change that.
Thistlecrack to be placed at odd from 2/1 to evens is where I am at as I already have enough of Might Bite in various Christmas mixed bets to sink a battleship
Last edited by Tanlic; 21st December 2017 at 8:47 AM.
Formely Fist of Fury
Indeed there is rain forecast GH, and a lot more than the 5mm some here predict. Turf Trax and the racing post through clerk Barney Clifford both report the potential of up to 25mm from late Christmas eve until the 26th.Originally Posted by Grasshopper
If we get 75% of what’s forecast it will be a soft ground festival.
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Copying over my write up (done last night) on the race. As always please excuse the writing skills and also if I've repeated any points that have already been made.
Seen as I've broke up from work now and the Mrs has gone out I thought I might as well get this started. I know to some extent we've covered the race on other threads in bits and dabs but I'll try to go into it in a bit more depth. I think we have 2 different scenarios really depending on the ground with the going stick reading 6.6 and what was a dry week forecast it looked like being good ground. On the other hand I've just read that the clerk has said they are forecast rain Christmas day onwards and the worst case scenario would lead to soft ground.
So lets deal with both and firstly the good ground scenario.
I think this certainly favours Might Bite. I have to admit that I'm in 2 minds about him whether he's the proverbial good thing or whether he's a bit over hyped. I'm wondering just how much he's achieved in real terms. His form really hangs on what Whisper has done in the Hennessy. That might be a dangerous line of evidence to support his case though. The Hennessy was run on much softer ground than either the RSA or the Grd1 at Aintree where the pair met. Whisper produced by far the biggest figure of his career in the Hennessy so you could say that he's just simply improved for conditions he also jumped a lot better than what he had done in either run against Might Bite. In fairness if we looked at what else he beat in his main races the Feltham, Royal Vacation, in the RSA Bellshill hasn't run since so we'll use the 4th Alpha Des obeaux and 5th 007 and at Aintree he was 18L clear of Virgilio. Between them they have done the square root of **** all since. However he has beat them so bloodlessly its hard to draw any firm conclusions from it although it would be fair to say that in graded company he's beat Whisper and trees.
I'm confused when I look at Dave Edwards figures as MB hasn't really produced anything special on the clock and given the way he's run and the pace he seems to have gone its really quite shocking. His highest Topspeed rating is 139 in the Mildmay and to put that into context Whisper earned a rating of 158 for his run in the Hennessy. In MB's defence though its highly likely that he would have put up a higher figure if completing in the Feltham as he was 2 seconds ahead of Thistlecrack's King George time when falling at the last. Thistle crack earned 133 for his King George so Might Bite was probably going to hit somewhere in the 140's. This shouldn't at all detract from Thistlecrack though as he was capable of running I feel much quicker than he did in the KG but just did what he had to. This perhaps backed up by the fact he ran 151 in defeat against Many Clouds which to me shows how good he was when pushed to his limit and you could certainly have said he'd have been better suited to the 3 mile at Kempton than task he faced that day at Cheltenham so it could be said that he could have run a bigger figure if needed in the KG. The one question about Thistlecrack ..is he the same horse ? At the prices on offer for him I'd side against that being the case.
Back to Might bite and on overall reflection in spite of the figures I think he's still a solid favourite and the most likely winner. You take into account how easily he was doing things in the Feltham last year and you also take into account how he got back up to win in the RSA (which to my mind should have been impossible) and you have the all round feel that he's a bit special. I think the better the ground the better his chance and on a decent surface I think he's longs odds on to smash them purely based on the fact it hinders his main opponents who I feel to be BDM and Whisper.
Bristol De Mai. If you take his form on Heavy ground out of the equation he doesn't really look up too much.
Thistlecrack as said looked very bad lto so whatever the ground comes up I wouldn't want to be onside at the price. Although that said if he does bounce back to something like his best he's a force to be reckoned with.
Fox Norton steps up in trip for the first time. Plenty of better 2 mile horses have tried it here and failed and lets make no mistake about it, stamina will be tested here, Might Bite, BDM and Disko all like to get on with things so there will be no hiding place. I quite like Fox Norton and its certainly worth try here but his current odds are skinny for a horse yet to do 3 mile. Personally I thought he was beaten by a bad ride in the Tingle creek rather than a better horse so I wouldn't have been giving up on him as a two miler myself given the lack of strength in depth in that sector and Altiors recent problems.
Whisper we've already covered some what and is held on lines with Might Bite on decent ground you'd struggle to argue he can reverse and his hopes probably lie in getting a plenty of rain and hoping he can jump as well as he did in the Hennessy. That given I think he'd stand a 50/50 chance of getting the better of the argument this time.
So we move on to Disko and I have to admit looking at his record at a glance I was a bit worried about him being one who might be a contender. Since watching the replays I've become less and less so. His 3 mile wins seem to have come when he could easily dictate and I worry about how well he'll fare at 3 miles run at a strong gallop and he's very unlikely to get things his own way here. My best guess is you'll see him fold like a cheap tent 2 from home.
Of the outsiders we have Tea for two who could pick up the pieces if the race falls apart but even on his run in this last year it leaves him with plenty to find to be a serious threat.
Traffic Fluide although having bits and pieces of form just purely on the fact a 12yo Menorah beat him in the spring giving him 10lbs tells me he doesn't have what it takes.
Outlander despite landing some decent prizes from what I can tell every time he's exposed to a proper gallop he disappears which only really leaves us with Double Shuffle who as we know would be a complete game changer for me should he win but a decent enough payout if the best he can do is make the frame.
Obviously I'm going to take the most favourable view I can get but there is quite a lot to feel optimistic about. He firstly had some bits and bobs of decent form in his earlier years with a 3rd in the close brothers handicap at the festival. However I really don't think we've seen the best of him and its since he was fitted with headgear and got stepped up in trip that things started to come together for him. In first time headgear he won the 3m handicap over CD at the Christmas meeting here last year conceding 7lbs and giving a 3 length beating to Go Conquer who has since gone on to improve to a 151 rated animal. I wouldn't read too much into that as not many of the others behind that day franked the form but I'm searching for any positive I can get.
He then went on to the Bet bright chase and despite taking the third last with him, a mistake that should of put paid to his chances he battled back gamely for 2nd to Pilgrims bay. Without that mistake I think it fair to say that he'd be unbeaten over course and distance albeit in handicap company. He produced a figure of 138 even with that mistake that's not so far removed from some of the leading contenders here and remembering this was only his second attempt at the trip and second try in headgear.
After that he went on to Pull up in the National but that's always going to be excusable. He's then returned with what on the face of it looks 2 half decent efforts over inadequate trips. He's run 2nd behind Romain de senam over 2m3f at Chepstow. Given that rival went on to run well off an 18lb higher mark in both the Bet Victor and the Caspian Caviar on ground that was too soft for him on Both occasions it stands to reason that Double shuffle was firmly up against it first time up. The 3rd and 4th from that race both came out and run a big race in the Sefton at Aintree so all things considered its not a bad effort.
Next time out he's bumped into Top Notch who to my mind would have been a better option for connections to have a go at this himself rather than BDM. Whatever the opinion he came out of what was probably the strongest novice race of the festival this year and could well be a 170 rated horse himself in time. Doube Shuffle again over an insufficient trip (2m5f) got outpaced as they turned for home but was doing all his best work at the finish. He went down by 8L in the end but the gap was closing. Disko who is a much shorter price got within 3L of Top notch at the festival over 2m4f but Top notch was going away from him rather than coming back to him which suggests to me that over the longer trip I'd rather side with DS especially given that he's over 5 times the price.
Double Shuffles run style suggests to me that he'll be better suited by a really strong pace the kind you will only find in the Top Grd1 events. In serval of his run especially his 2 efforts over 3 mile around here he travels extremely well but when the change of pace comes and horses start to go for home he seems to take his time to pick up I wouldn't say hits a flat spot but he seems to lack a change of gears. However, here it may well be a savage gallop and if he can hang on in there until the turn for home it might be a case of sustaining a gallop rather quickening up off one which I feel would certainly suit him more as he certainly appears to be a strong stayer who will no doubt in time want more of test than 3 mile at Kempton.
Possibility being on the day he'll be around 100/1 as most will overlook him completely as the path he's taken to the race he wouldn't stand out. I'd believe though he's one of the best 100/1 shots to ever step foot on a race course given his ground. The trainer is of the opinion he doesn't like soft ground,I'm not so sure but he keeps being pulled out when it is soft and is still entered in the graduation chase at Ascot so a possibility he still won't run. Soft ground would at least dent his chances because it at least aids a few of the others.
Two of those as I've brushed on are Whisper and BDM. BDM worries me less as there is a difference between soft and bottomless. Although I think he'll run a race if it is soft I don't expect to see him to display the kind of run he put in at Haydock. Whisper on the other hand has had literally the perfect preparation runs for this and has looked a lot more like it this term. Despite Nicky Hendersons claims that Might Bite is yards and yards and yards better the truth of the matter is at Aintree he was 2L's better and Whisper didn't jump all that well. On a softer surface its not unimaginable that Whisper could turn the tables especially with a round of jumping more akin to what we saw at Newbury. It may just be in this scenario.... Henderson..... might be biting on his own words
Conclusion on decent ground.
1st Might Bite
2nd Fresh Air
3rd Whisper
4th Double Shuffle
On soft Ground
1st Whisper (by a whisker)
2nd Might Bite
3rd BDM.
Last edited by Danny; 21st December 2017 at 1:02 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Double J (21st December 2017), Len Madeiros (21st December 2017)
Still not worried.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Wait until you see those dancing shoes coming
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Hopefully madison to monroe runs in the Leop bumper
He is the most beautiful looking horse that I have laid eyes on
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I'm hoping Mia's Storm turns up in the Feltham as can see her stuffing the boys
Much love for her this season
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I would just be a little worried if they get buckets of rain the night before. Otherwise will be my Xmas smash up job
Great write up Danny and hope Double Shuffle at least places for you, can't see it myself but you write a good argument.
As long as it reads, 1st - Might Bite - I couldn't care less what's in behind or how far they are behind.
Danny (21st December 2017)
Hope you never backed Fresh Air Danny trainer has stated he has a wind problem and won't run
Formely Fist of Fury
The best I can hope for is decent ground and that he takes his chance in the line up I'd ask no more than that.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Cheers for the heads up
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
RP tweeting that Meade will be ducking KG with Disko but may end up in the chase formerly known as Lexus.
I believe he must have read my write up and thought this shrewd barsteward is not to be tangled with.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Noel didn't reference you directly Danny, but then again he wouldn't would he?
Running scared...
That's just one less Christmas card I have to send, No Noel this Christmas !
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Sonsofbitches
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I await my frying pan in the face moment at the declaration stage for the graduation chase for Ascot. I will certainly use more colourful language than Granger.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
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