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Thread: 2018 Gold Cuppin'

  1. #861
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    There is a serious chance that Might Bite could rip the field apart this year and horses ridden for a place could come through late on -maybe that could be the angle to approach SDR from.

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Hopefully the pace will be strong unlike last year.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  3. #863
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It is indeed subjective but it's an opinion borne of years of experience of crunching numbers. The numbers tell me last year's Gold Cup ended up not being that great a race.
    And it's all there in that sentence for me Maurice. Last years Gold Cup was poor. Surely based on that, and the fact that second season chasers dominate, we should accept that this years winner didn't line up last year in my opinion. Especially when we have a potential superstar on our hands. I really believe that the first three last year have to hope that Might Bite doesn't jump or De Boinville go's for home too early. Even then if Our Duke or Killultagh Vic jump well you couldnt see anything other than Native River or Sizing John getting involved and even then with a battle on their hands

    As you know I also like your opinions that run contrary to a market, and I'm always inclined to investigate them further, but in this case I really can't see it at all, despite the repect I have for the figures you keep.

    That said I'm wrong more than I'm right so I'd never tell anyone not to back a horse or that it can't win.

  4. #864
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Tbh, I've never heard the term 'confirmation bias' so I'm not sure what it could be
    It's seeing what you want to see and ignoring evidence that doesn't fit in with your theory. As punters we often have to overlook a bad run or two when forming an opinion on any given race but it becomes dangerous when you take a view on a horse which you're willing to follow over the proverbial cliff.

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  6. #865
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    And it's all there in that sentence for me Maurice. Last years Gold Cup was poor. Surely based on that, and the fact that second season chasers dominate, we should accept that this years winner didn't line up last year in my opinion. Especially when we have a potential superstar on our hands. I really believe that the first three last year have to hope that Might Bite doesn't jump or De Boinville go's for home too early. Even then if Our Duke or Killultagh Vic jump well you couldnt see anything other than Native River or Sizing John getting involved and even then with a battle on their hands.
    Yes, that did occur to me, Maruco. But when I first mentioned SDR in this thread Killultagh Vic wasn't really on the radar and we didn't know if Our Duke was going to be running. The only real threat to last year's form was Might Bite and the old adage says not to be afraid of just one horse.

    It also occurred to me that Sam T-D might have said to PN after the National that the horse didn't really take to the fences (although I thought he looked fine for as far as he went) and that he should go for gold next season.

    I accept all the ifs buts and maybes and it should be remembered we're not talking about taking a risk with a 6/1 shot. It's a 66/1 shot and I'm trying to build a value portfolio.

    I would argue that, for example, BDM last season was a good punt at the prices. I think his form at Haydock this season when he recorded an RPR of 180 (and which appears to have impressed the Timeform sectionalistas too), although no use to me, justifies the punt. I had him down as possibly a top-class horse and he could have won with a clear round while running well below his Haydock form. It should also be remembered that when Blaklion impressed people earlier this season and was mentioned in regard to the Gold Cup NTD was quick to dismiss the idea saying, "We've got the Gold Cup sorted."

    I'll check back through the thread once I've posted this as it's only just occurring to me but I don't believe I've actually said SDR will win the Gold Cup, merely that he could have won last year's had he been targeting it seriously. I stand by that. But beating Siaing John a length wouldn't get him near Might Bite's best. But Might Bite might be trying to sign autographs again after the last.
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  7. #866
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    What has you so convinced that SDR wasn’t seriously trying to win the Gold Cup last year, DO?

    He had a race in late January and another in mid-February, so it’s not like he would have been using the GC for fitness ahead of Aintree. In fact, he ran four times prior to the Gold Cup last season, and if they were so focused on Aintree, they would surely have swerved Cheltenham entirely?

    It’s completely counter-intuitive to use the Gold Cup as a prep for anything, because you are going to have a hard-race by default, and there is every chance you will leave your next race behind.

    I’m sorry DO, but you appear to have convinced yourself that SDR somehow wasn’t trying last season, and your reasons for suggesting he could/should have won, seem illogical to me. It’s at odds with what I’d normally expect from you, which is rational and sober assessment.

    I think you’re maybe down a rabbit-hole with this SDR theory, to be honest.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th February 2018 at 9:46 PM.
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  8. #867
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    What has you so convinced that SDR wasn’t seriously trying to win the Gold Cup last year, DO?
    Just the way he was ridden, GH. He gave up the outside to no-one and wasn't brought under serious pressure at any point. In a Gold Cup you expect - if far from pleasing on the eye and I don't like even saying it myself - the jockey to, as Ted Walsh once put it on TV, "tear rashers off them".

    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    He had a race in late January and another in mid-February, so it’s not like he would have been using the GC for fitness ahead of Aintree. In fact, he ran four times prior to the Gold Cup last season, and if they were so focused on Aintree, they would surely have swerved Cheltenham entirely?

    It’s completely counter-intuitive to use the Gold Cup as a prep for anything, because you are going to have a hard-race by default, and there is every chance you will leave your next race behind.
    Again going by the way he was ridden, it looked to me like they planned to give him the type of schooling home work and easy wins against lesser opposition can't provide ahead of the National which was worth nearly 50% more in prize money than the Gold Cup. I thought he was ridden to pick up scraps without having too hard a race given his history of relative under-achievement.


    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I’m sorry DO, but you appear to have convinced yourself that SDR somehow wasn’t trying last season, and your reasons for suggesting he could/should have won, seem illogical to me. It’s at odds with what I’d normally expect from you, which is rational and sober assessment.

    I think you’re maybe down a rabbit-hole with this SDR theory, to be honest.
    "Not trying" is maybe a wee bit strong, GH. He did, after all, win along the way. I think he was campaigned with the National as his most serious objective. I backed him in the Gold Cup more from a value angle than anything else. I had a lot more on him for the National.

    Looking at my pre-race figures for the Gold Cup last season I see I had SDR on 175 for his old form. I must have that annotated against at least one race at some point in his past but a lot of my older stuff is now up the loft degrading! It will have been the reason I took fancy odds ante-post about him.

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  9. #868
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another 'angle' on the possible value of SDR in the Gold Cup:

    Would I fancy him to beat these who are near the top of the market?

    Might Bite 3/1 - no, unless he tries to throw it away but I don't think he will.

    Native River 6/1 - yes, even after yesterday

    Sizing John 6/1 - yes, based on my belief he could have beaten him last year

    Killultagh Vic 10/1 - genuinely don't know how good KV is but he'll need to be better than a two-length winner from Edwulf

    Road To Respect 10/1 - don't know, haven't checked him out thoroughly

    Coney Island 10/1 - likewise

    Our Duke 14/1 - maybe not but will he jump round?

    Definitly Red - yes, no worries at all

    Minella Rocco 20/1 - likewise

    And SDR is 100/1 in places!

    I suppose if Nicholls comes out tomorrow and says SDR won't go I'll have to accept I've read it all wrong. I don't think he's even entered in the National this season. It looks to me like it's the Gold Cup or bust, which is a wee bit of a surprise given how good Might Bite looked last season. I'd have thought there would need to be a Plan B but there doesn't seem to be.
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  10. #869
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    Got as far as Native River who just beat him by 36 lengths/a distance and he's not even fully fit yet............What a crock of shite
    Formely Fist of Fury

  11. #870
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another 'angle' on the possible value of SDR in the Gold Cup:

    I'd have thought there would need to be a Plan B but there doesn't seem to be.
    The Whitbread

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another 'angle' on the possible value of SDR in the Gold Cup:

    Would I fancy him to beat these who are near the top of the market?

    Might Bite 3/1 - no, unless he tries to throw it away but I don't think he will.

    Native River 6/1 - yes, even after yesterday

    Sizing John 6/1 - yes, based on my belief he could have beaten him last year

    Killultagh Vic 10/1 - genuinely don't know how good KV is but he'll need to be better than a two-length winner from Edwulf

    Road To Respect 10/1 - don't know, haven't checked him out thoroughly

    Coney Island 10/1 - likewise

    Our Duke 14/1 - maybe not but will he jump round?

    Definitly Red - yes, no worries at all

    Minella Rocco 20/1 - likewise

    And SDR is 100/1 in places!

    I suppose if Nicholls comes out tomorrow and says SDR won't go I'll have to accept I've read it all wrong. I don't think he's even entered in the National this season. It looks to me like it's the Gold Cup or bust, which is a wee bit of a surprise given how good Might Bite looked last season. I'd have thought there would need to be a Plan B but there doesn't seem to be.
    Think you’re going deeper down the rabbit-hole, DO. Say hello to Alice for me!
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    I would have to say I agree with some points from both sides. I have to admit that I was fairly impressed with Native River in the way he's done nothing wrong on Saturday and hasn't been pushed too hard which as much as you can ask for leading into a Gold Cup. I think form wise although he's beat Cloudy dream further I'd say the form is probably not that far removed from what Definitely Red did to him at Aintree. The pace there was even slower than at Newbury and as such the distance beaten at Aintree probably flattered him. That's not to say I'd think the horses have equal chances as you'd give Native River plenty for it being first run of the season and another chunk on top re- A gold cup as he's performed there before on better ground and a stronger pace where as Definitely Red has yet to do so.

    I sort of made a case for Double Shuffle using similar reasoning to what Des has with Saphir de rheu that the opposition didn't look that strong and that some had had a whole host of problems and question marks about them. However I was doing this before I saw the Irish Trial and before I'd seen Native river make his comeback. The Irish trial in itself didn't worry me too much as I think if KV had stood up and Our Duke hadn't made his mistake then you'd have probably ended up with 4 horses finishing in very close proximity to each other which would indicate there isn't really a superstar amongst them. If you were to take one out of that race then it would probably be Our Duke who had the strongest form in the book prior to it with his Irish Nash run. If you were to take into account that it was really his first run back after having his problems on seasonal debut then there is a good chance Jessie can have him close to peak form on the day and as such he'd be a threat to anything. I'm a bit of a fan of Jessie and as such believe if anyone can revitalise Sizing John for the day it would be her. I'd agree that last years Gold cup wasn't that strong an event but at the end of it you'd have probably given Sizing John a P/+ as he'd probably with lack of experience and age have been able to improve from that for this year. The problem he had over Christmas would certainly dampen enthusiasm as a betting prospect but if Jessie can get him back right then he also represents a threat.

    I don't buy the argument that Might Bite is a superstar or that he's been idling in certain races. A horse that idles in front will generally do so all the while. When he was in the process of slaughtering the Kauto Star field he certainly wasn't idling. Nor was he idling on seasonal debut when just doing what he had to do to warm up. What he did last year in the RSA to my mind wasn't idling either he's got distracted yes and tried to run out but that's not Idling. If he'd have kept to a straight line as some have suggested he'd have won probably 10 lengths. To suggest he was idling from some way out doesn't wash with me he set a ferocious gallop and his jump at the last just looked like a tired jump. Despite the ferocious gallop the overall time was fairly slow even allowing for his wobble up the hill which to tells me he's gone too fast. What he did in getting back up to beat Whisper looks amazing and should of been impossible really but given that Whisper had been forced into going at it from a long way out it stands to reason that he was out on his legs by the time he reached the top of the hill. I also think comparing Whispers line of form from that race to the Hennessy line is also flawed for several reasons. Whisper has always been a better horse on a flat track than he has been at Cheltenham. He also Jumped better in the Hennessy than he did in either of his Novice attempts against Might Bite and good jumping can make a huge difference to performance levels. That said anyone crabbing his King George form on the basis of Tea for Twos' performances at either Aintree ( first time up over too short a trip ) , Haydock ( run in a bog ) or his subsequent performance at Cheltenham ( A course where he's never run well, also run in bad ground) is barking up the wrong tree. He obviously has run nowhere near to form on those occasions and its always best to put a line through those sorts of runs. He's better judged on his runs in the KG last year and at Aintree when winning the Bowl. I'd say the ratings for Might Bite and Double shuffle are in the right ball park based on that and don't see really what other choice the handicapper had than to award those or something similar.

    I can see why Des has made a case for Saphir de Rheu but I think I'm with the general consensus that he may be clutching at straws with this one but at least they are a 100/1 straws. My view on him is that he came up short in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. My view of Staying Hurdlers is they are the poorest of the Grd1 animals. He has come up short last year and I have no doubt he'd do the same again. I'm never averse to taking a pop on a long shot myself and the Gold cup is as good as any race in which to have a go at there always seems to be something there or thereabouts at a huge price that went largely unconsidered. Just off the top of my head I can remember horses like Go Ballistic, The Giant Bolster amongst a host of big priced ones that finished behind Best Mate and I think I even remember Lake Kariba going close to the places one year at over 100/1. Personally though I'd rather take a chance on one that has yet to come up short in the race. Obviously Double Shuffle is my pick this year and I still think he's the best value in the race but I have to admit the opposition is starting to look a a fair bit stronger than it was a couple of weeks ago.

    That said my overall view is that there isn't a world beater amongst the field and they are a bunch of horses high 160's bordering low 170's and in all honesty come the day I don't think there will be a lot between them. If anything is to win by a long way then it will be because others have under performed for some reason.
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  15. #873
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    The Whitbread
    Hmmm, but in the big scheme of things it would be a pretty poor consolation prize.
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  16. #874
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Think you’re going deeper down the rabbit-hole, DO. Say hello to Alice for me!
    Will do.
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    What he did last year in the RSA to my mind wasn't idling either he's got distracted yes and tried to run out but that's not Idling. If he'd have kept to a straight line as some have suggested he'd have won probably 10 lengths. To suggest he was idling from some way out doesn't wash with me he set a ferocious gallop and his jump at the last just looked like a tired jump.
    If he was tired he wouldn't have found as much when Marinero came upsides.

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    Might Bite is no doubt slowing down towards the end of the race you can take the view that he was either taking the **** and idling or that he was tiring. Without running sideways he would have won further than he did however he was 20L clear turning for home and he wouldn't have been 20L clear at the line. So you have either have to say he was tiring or that other horses behind him started running faster at the end of a 3mile chase than they were at the beginning which is as rare as hens teeth. They can't close the gap if one or the other isn't true and I'd favour the Might Bite tiring theory. Yes he's found enough to fetch out Whisper but how much had Whisper got left ?

    Its above my intelligence level to be doing sectional times but I'd love to see sectional comparisons from other R.S.A finishes. If Might Bites and Whispers from the last fence to the line weren't the slowest (given similar ground) i'd be very surprised and admit to having it totally wrong.
    Last edited by Danny; 12th February 2018 at 12:27 PM.
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    MB almost came to a stop at one point so his sectional would be irrelevant

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    True but Whispers wouldn't.
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  21. #879
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm not convinced Might Bite was idling until after the last, by which point Whisper was clearly eating into the lead. Might Bite would have been a clear winner without his errant swerve but I reckon by not much more than six lengths (4lbs), which is how I've rated him. On the other hand, I would say Might Bite is probably worth a considerable 'mark-up' as he might well have won by the 20 lengths had de Boinville held on to him for another couple of furlongs. The turn of foot he showed from the top of the hill until after the bend if deployed from the home turn might have devastated the field just as impressively. I'd be happy to settle for a notional rating somewhere between those two points.

    Take Kylemore Lough on Saturday, for example, if he had slipped on landing two out we'd all be rating him a 20+ lengths winner but after that slow, tired jump at the last he was finishing slower than Crisp at the end of 'that' National.
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    I'd certainly go along with that as a fair reflection of the RSA Des.
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