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Thread: 2018 Gold Cuppin'

  1. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    No doubt DO that's just a fitness issue.

    I'm just hoping they finally see common sense and let Cloudy dream go to the Ryan Air. Hope they haven't ruined him running him over too far purely on the basis that Trevor Hemmings wants a Gold cup horse and not another Ryan Air type.
    Hemmings doesn't care what he ruins if it means he gets what he wants. Trust me id know, he runs my football team (Preston North End)

    Think Hemmings is more in love with the National though, hence buying Vicente last year because he didn't have a runner after Clouds died.

  2. #842
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Cloudy Dream is a boat Danny.....nothing to do with staying. Had that been a 2 horse race defeating PN's would have been WOW great performance from the same lips.

    Native River is 100% a Gold Cup horse and scares the hell out of me as I have backed MB and SJ in my accumulators

    He will take the world of beating ands he is entitled to improve on last year and looks like he may have
    Formely Fist of Fury

  3. #843
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    Cracking re-appearance from Native River, totally different campaign for him this season and just wonder what effect that will have on the big one in March. Wouldn't surprise me at all given how other Gold Cup contenders have performed thus far this season, if Native River is the one that serves it up to Might Bite and gives him the most to worry about.

  4. #844
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    He was pretty happy winning the Ryanair with Alberta’S Run.

  5. #845
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    Great to see Native River win impressively. If we get the ground of Coneygree’s GC or Best Mate’
    s last he has a great chance - on good ground he just may lack the pace.

    I feel the race is all about Might Bite if he stays he wins for me .
    Last edited by Ardross; 10th February 2018 at 4:32 PM.

  6. #846
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Cloudy Dream is a boat Danny.....nothing to do with staying. Had that been a 2 horse race defeating PN's would have been WOW great performance from the same lips.

    Native River is 100% a Gold Cup horse and scares the hell out of me as I have backed MB and SJ in my accumulators

    He will take the world of beating ands he is entitled to improve on last year and looks like he may have

    Winning today is nowhere near his Gold Cup third from last season, so no idea where you're getting the impression he's improved, Tanlic. Maybe he can improve given his relative inexperience, but he certainly didn't show improvement today.

    He has been given a soft-lead on ground he handles, against a horse coming back from a lay-off, and a patent non-stayer. Both SDR and CD were going noticeably the better going to four-out, but NR has out-battled and out-stayed them. These are admirable and desirable qualities in a Gold Cup horse, but that race is in another stratosphere in terms of the class of opposition he will meet. I see NRs chance this year, much like I viewed his chance last year - he commands respect, will almost certainly run his race, but will likely find one or two of the classier types, too good.

    I would love to see him in the National.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  7. #847
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Winning today is nowhere near his Gold Cup third from last season
    Based on my figure for CD's best form (over shorter), NR has just about matched my best figure for him last season. CD was slowing down near the line so I don't think NR has done anything special today.
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  8. #848
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    Cloudy Dream a stone-cold non-stayer for me, DO.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  9. #849
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    With SDR blowing up three out it only showed that Native River stays better than Cloudy Dream.

    My money went on SDR yesterday afternoon but later this morning I saw Nicholls describe him as likely to look a bit burly so expectations were lowered a tad.

    People prepared to write off SDR based on that should think of Edwulf's comeback run just three or four weeks before he won the Irish Gold Cup.

    When I grow up I want to have your ability to ignore reality..........you're in a dream world DO the race was run at a crawl for a Grade 2 and he couldn't even stay with them.

    He might come back but not in this Gold Cup (Now 120 on the machine) .

    Native River has absolutely slaughtered them and he's not jumped great and will need to improve on that to be placed.

    Personally I think he will and run better than last year BUT SDR? you must be joking man.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  10. #850
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Cloudy Dream a stone-cold non-stayer for me, DO.
    He's finished 2nd 9 times it wouldn't matter what trip he'll do the same..I reckon Harchibald gave his grandmother one
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    With SDR blowing up three out it only showed that Native River stays better than Cloudy Dream.

    My money went on SDR yesterday afternoon but later this morning I saw Nicholls describe him as likely to look a bit burly so expectations were lowered a tad.

    People prepared to write off SDR based on that should think of Edwulf's comeback run just three or four weeks before he won the Irish Gold Cup.

    Was badly in need of the run today but if he goes to the festival it will surely be as a social runner.

  12. #852
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I really don't know about that, Luke.

    He wasn't beaten far last year when the National was clearly the main aim.

    I genuinely suspect Sam T-D got off him last year and said to Nicholls he could have won if he'd been seriously aimed at the race. How else do we explain his not even being entered in the National this year? I really do think if he was a social runner PN and STD wouldn't have been so quick to contradict the owner's claim that Bryony Frost would ride him in the Gold Cup. The fact that Sam T-D was immediately confirmed as the rider tells us that he is Nicholls's main hope. That, by definition, says he ain't no social runner.
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  13. #853
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    I can’t agree, DO.

    I think you maybe give the yard too much respect, based on past glories.

    Simple fact is - for whatever reason - Nicholls no longer gets the quality of horse he used to, and the suggestion that SDR could have won the last Gold Cup if trained differently, is not only highly subjective, it is completely unsustainable on any known line of form.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th February 2018 at 10:39 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    It’s always good to have the alternative argument put forward. It makes you question your own methods and stops you just accepting the general perception. Sometimes you get a couple of decent judges in the media saying the same thing and all of a sudden that becomes an often repeated ‘fact’. I hate that.

    However DO there’s also such a thing as confirmation bias and it’s rife in punters. Changing your mind is absolutely necessary in this game. Loyalty is worth nothing. SDR may have a race in him somewhere down the line but it’s never a Gold Cup.


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    Cloudy Dream has had 18 runs, 7 wins, 9 seconds and twice third.
    He has run up some very decent horses and Ryanair is his race.
    For any ew combi bet punter he is a dream horse on those stats

  17. #856
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    PN has only a 17% strike rate over hurdles this year NJH 33% so the future isn't looking great.
    He's doing well money wise 110K only behind NIcky

    When you see Silviniaco Conti's owner having horses elsewhere and zero with PN after winning the KG for him you can't help but wonder why?
    Formely Fist of Fury

  18. #857
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    ... and the suggestion that SDR could have won the last Gold Cup if trained differently, is not only highly subjective, it is completely unsustainable on any known line of form.
    It is indeed subjective but it's an opinion borne of years of experience of crunching numbers. The numbers tell me last year's Gold Cup ended up not being that great a race. Indeed it was very ordinary. SDR wasn't given a hard time in the race and wasn't beaten far despite giving up the outside to no-one. I don't claim to be good at - or even able to - reading Nicholls but having backed SDR ew for the race I was a tad disappointed more wasn't asked of him at the time. Trying to weigh everything up I concluded that the horse was being campaigned in the light of previous fragility and with his having a good handicap mark the value of the National was maybe the horse's big chance of a last hurrah and if he came out of Aintree well then they cold think about the following season's Gold Cup.

    When I re-viewed last year's Gold Cup the other week I'd forgotten how fluently SDR jumped all through the race. I didn't notice a single mistake, which was unlike the horse that should have won the Hennessy. Yesterday I think he maybe fiddled one fence on the way round before tiring from two out and apart from that he again jumped fluently. At least he didn't have a hard race.

    As for unsustainable form lines, I'd argue last year's Gold Cup run is strong evidence but it is of course subjective.

    However, as a hurdler his OR was 165 and he was favourite for the Stayers' Hurdle. At the time Nicholls, with Denman and Kauto Star fresh in the mind, said he regarded SDR as a potential "superstar" over fences. I admit that isn't a form line but if Stoute said he reckoned a 2yo was going to be a "superstar" as a 3yo or 4yo who wouldn't want to take notice of a remark like that? From the man who trained Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded, etc, etc?

    He won the Mildmay Novice Chase easing down by 15 lengths. Two runs later he was 9/2f for the Hennessy off 163. He blundered his chance away that day but was trying to give 8lbs to Smad Place who went up to 168 for winning it, 24lbs to Theatre Guide (139) who went up to 150 for winning the RP Trophy by ten lengths off the same mark, 16lbs to First Lieutenant (147) who went up to 160 for finishing a half-length second to Don Poli in the Lexus next time out.

    Yet SDR was 9/2f to beat them? I'm not saying he would have beaten them without that blunder but it cost him plenty as it was seven out just as the race was hotting up. But even if he'd only managed to dead-heat for third with First Lieutenant he could be rated 176.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 11th February 2018 at 1:01 PM.
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  19. #858
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    PN has only a 17% strike rate over hurdles this year NJH 33% so the future isn't looking great.
    He's doing well money wise 110K only behind NIcky

    When you see Silviniaco Conti's owner having horses elsewhere and zero with PN after winning the KG for him you can't help but wonder why?
    Chris Giles is putting money back into the yard. Sullivan has gone to Willie and Nicky after originally pulling out of the game completely and losing Buveir along the way.

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  21. #859
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    It is indeed subjective but it's an opinion borne of years of experience of crunching numbers. The numbers tell me last year's Gold Cup ended up not being that great a race. Indeed it was very ordinary. SDR wasn't given a hard time in the race and wasn't beaten far despite giving up the outside to no-one. I don't claim to be good at - or even able to - reading Nicholls but having backed SDR ew for the race I was a tad disappointed more wasn't asked of him at the time. Trying to weigh everything up I concluded that the horse was being campaigned in the light of previous fragility and with his having a good handicap mark the value of the National was maybe the horse's big chance of a last hurrah and if he came out of Aintree well then they cold think about the following season's Gold Cup.

    When I re-viewed last year's Gold Cup the other week I'd forgotten how fluently SDR jumped all through the race. I didn't notice a single mistake, which was unlike the horse that should have won the Hennessy. Yesterday I think he maybe fiddled one fence on the way round before tiring from two out and apart from that he again jumped fluently. At least he didn't have a hard race.

    As for unsustainable form lines, I'd argue last year's Gold Cup run is strong evidence but it is of course subjective.

    However, as a hurdler his OR was 165 and he was favourite for the Stayers' Hurdle. At the time Nicholls, with Denman and Kauto Star fresh in the mind, said he regarded SDR as a potential "superstar" over fences. I admit that isn't a form line but if Stoute said he reckoned a 2yo was going to be a "superstar" as a 3yo or 4yo who wouldn't want to take notice of a remark like that? From the man who trained Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded, etc, etc?

    He won the Mildmay Novice Chase easing down by 15 lengths. Two runs later he was 9/2f for the Hennessy off 163. He blundered his chance away that day but was trying to give 8lbs to Smad Place who went up to 168 for winning it, 24lbs to Theatre Guide (139) who went up to 150 for winning the RP Trophy by ten lengths off the same mark, 16lbs to First Lieutenant (147) who went up to 160 for finishing a half-length second to Don Poli in the Lexus next time out.

    Yet SDR was 9/2f to beat them? I'm not saying he would have beaten them without that blunder but it cost him plenty as it was seven out just as the race was hotting up. But even if he'd only managed to dead-heat for third with First Lieutenant he could be rated 176.
    SDR was beaten fair-and-square in the Gold Cup. The reason he was kept to the outside throughout, is because he has always been an iffy jumper. The chosen route kept him out of trouble, and far from being a negative, I'd say it was the only way to ride him, to ensure he didn't throw his chance away through making errors. It is a fact of his race-record, that he has never won a chase of any description, with double-digit runners in the race.

    As far as last year's Gold Cup is concerned, he never threatened at any stage, and whilst only beaten 6.5L, that's as close as he was ever going to come. The only way you could have him any nearer, is if you think he was under-trained for the race, and that's the wholly-subjective bit.

    I place no stock in Nicholls description of him as a potential "superstar", because I recall him saying the same thing about Aux Ptit Soins after he won the Coral Cup, before he went onto achieve very little thereafter. It's quite common for horses to be bought out of France, and pleasantly-surprise their UK/Irish connections in their first race 'over here'. They are only getting to know the horse at that stage, and it's just not that unusual for them to use the old canard "Could be anything", at that stage of their careers.

    Clearly, SDR has achieved a deal more than APS ever managed, but Nicholls was self-evidently wrong in his assessment. The horse has won 4 chases in 15 starts - which places him firmly outside the "superstar" bracket, on any reasonably measure.

    You cannot use a series of tenuous 'What ifs?" to prop-up a bold-statement like "Would have won the Gold Cup". It's a straw-man argument, and in my view, and you're kidding yourself on a bit, if you genuinely think it's the case.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th February 2018 at 1:19 PM.
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  22. #860
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    However DO there’s also such a thing as confirmation bias and it’s rife in punters. Changing your mind is absolutely necessary in this game. Loyalty is worth nothing. SDR may have a race in him somewhere down the line but it’s never a Gold Cup.
    Tbh, I've never heard the term 'confirmation bias' so I'm not sure what it could be.

    I agree about loyalty to an extent but I will often take out 'sickness insurance' on a horse I've been backing but which might not be a main fancy on a day it might win.

    Any loyalty I'm displaying is more to myself than to any trainer or jockey. I do have faith in my own figures but as anyone with more than a passing acquaintance either with me or my figures will attest, I am my own biggest critic and always looking to improve on what I'm doing.

    Before that Hennessy I actually wrote:
    I took 16/1 (now 6/1) Bobs Worth (finished 6th) after his reappearance run. I’m still thinking of laying off at the shorter price. The bottom line is that if he’s anywhere near back he’s a good thing but I see the commercial firms are dissing the Wetherby race.

    I took 33/1 First Lieutenant (now 20s and shortening) (3rd 20/1) earlier in the week but I do have reservations about the jockey as well as the trainer’s form. However, this time last season they were still talking about the Lexus and the Gold Cup for him so his drop to 147 is quite lenient. He ran perfectly respectably last time in a Grade 2 and after his first run last season his trainer said he “often starts the season slowly” and he went on to be beaten just under 12 lengths in the Lexus. That form is some way below his best (when not beaten far by Silviniaco Conti at Aintree in the Bowl) but it’s enough to leave him clear top in the [ratings] table. If I can lay this bet off at 16s I will.

    For this race I usually prefer second-season chasers as they tend to be on the steepest curves but this renewal is a bit shy on them. Saphir Du Rheu, currently off 163, might be a future Gold Cup winner but he’s unlikely to be as good as Big Buck’s who tipped up at the last when in with a chance in this race off 153. Saphir Du Rheu will probably need to be a 173+ horse to have a chance in this. He might be that good but I wouldn’t be prepared to pay good money to find out, not at twice his price.
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