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Thread: 2018 Gold Cuppin'

  1. #241
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    It wouldn't surprise anyone if BDM would improve past SJ, he was only couple of lengths away in the GC before making a stop ending mistake at the last. SJ is no world beater either so if he downgrades 1-2lbs from last season he wouldn't have won any races, so for the Betfair Chase he needs to come in the same form or even better as thats where Cue Card shows his best and BDM could continue his improvement.

  2. #242
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    You probably were out shopping yesterday She fired in a double yesterday with both hacking up by 5 and 6 lengths.

    Bristol wouldn't blow wind up his backside if he were only half fit fully fit he'd hack up in what looks a very weak renewal
    Oops hadn't seen that, it was after Our Dukes run I had a look at her stats and they were frighteningly bad, hopefully they have turned the corner

  3. #243
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Once Sizing John got over that nasty case of Douvanitis, i can't see any other illness effecting him
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  4. #244
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    SJ was rated 153 as a 2 mile chaser, 168 a mile+ farther. I'd say his affliction was caused by the wrong trip, not by the several other causes which exposed him over the minimum trip. Meanwhile to win a Betfair Chase, in the last couple of years the lowest rated performance was 172. First run & having to travel, I don't see how they'll help him and the confidence you have in him, given that so far he has won all his staying races by 1-2 lengths.

  5. #245
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aughex View Post
    Meanwhile to win a Betfair Chase, in the last couple of years the lowest rated performance was 172.
    You therefore have to ask yourself the question, which of the entries is capable of running-up to this kind of mark, and it's surely self-evident that SJ is more likely than any of the others?

    SJ has now won all three starts at 3 miles: all of them G1s, and all of them in the three most important races of the year for an Irish staying chaser. Trying to run that form down based on his winning-distances is somewhat odd, imo. He finds a way of getting it done, regardless of who he is up against, and as far as his FTO record is concerned, it's actually very good.......if you consider running Douvan to 8L, and finishing 5L clear of the 150-odd rated third, over a trip a mile short of your best, to qualify as 'very good'.

    SJ is very difficult to oppose, any way I see it.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 8th November 2017 at 10:28 AM.
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  6. #246
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Actually he got a rating of 164 when he won the Kinloch Brae which is over 2m4f not 3 miles so he has improved only 4lbs since he was stepped up to 3m..he still wouldn't blow wind up Douvan's ass at any trip )

    That said what else is there out there? Might Bite has yet to run in a top class chase for adults, Thistlecrack is on the sick List, Coneygree will never come back, they are talking of running Yorkhill in the Champion Hurdle and Douvan being injured means he has got to go back to the drawing board and win a 2 mile chase somewhere.

    So 168 is more than enough to be winning this poxy renewal.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  7. #247
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    It'd be hard to oppose at anything higher than 3/1. How many times did he had to travel on his first race? I don't think BDM and CC are that incapable of getting to him and 5/4 it makes it easy to oppose him.

  8. #248
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    I'd rather go to a Grade 1 Chase without a run, than on the back of a fall. Much as I love Cue Card, his recent efforts can't be ignored (two falls in last three outings), and age withers them all eventually.

    I know a few on here like BdM, but his limitations have been exposed, imo. I hear all the talk about him only being a 6yo, but he has had 15 chase starts, so he is not an inexperienced campaigner. Is he capable of further improvement, given he is somewhat of an open-book already? I personally don't see it. He certainly didn't improve in beating the 152-rated Blaklion by 1/2L, conceding 6lbs, and won't necessarily improve for the run, given he has always run with credit FTO (defeats due to inadequate trips rather than fitness disadvantage).

    Any way I look at it, odds-against SJ is fair enough.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  9. #249
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    Sizing John had 4 tough races in the space of three months at the end of last season. Not many horses go on to improve after winning the Gold Cup and I'd prefer to side with Bristol De Mai, who has very few - if any - question marks over Sizing John, who we've yet to see after those exploits.

    and I've asked myself this, Would Djakadam, Minella Rocco, Native River or Empire of Dirt get within a couple of lengths of BDM over 3m round Haydock, in likely soft ground?. Personally I doubt it and that's the level of form Sizing John was posting in those wins.

    For the remainder of the season I'd be with Sizing John but in this race I'll be with Bristol De Mai all day long. I love Cue Card but I can't see it.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 8th November 2017 at 12:00 PM.
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  10. #250
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    I disagree, Lee.

    For one, Djakadam in Soft ground over Haydock's 3m would be a very stern test indeed for BdM; something that might equally apply to EoD, if he showed anything like his Irish Gold Cup form (imo).

    Native River already boast a comfortable victory over BdM at the trip on Soft ground (winning just under 4L conceding 1lb), and with fewer chase runs under his belt, is likely more progressive anyway. Minella Rocco is a dour-stayer who I would expect to dead-heat with a tortoise over 3m.

    Regardless, I don't see the comparison as particularly valid anyway. You can't equate wins in the top three Grade 1s for staying chasers, with an isolated handicap performance from BdM against a field of rags, over C&D. You just can't.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 8th November 2017 at 12:12 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  11. #251
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    I just think BDM is currently nigh on unbeatable over Haydock's 3m when the mud is flying but while I accept that his impressive course wins have come in a novice chase and a handicap I don't particularly rate last years bunch of staying chasers.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  12. #252
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    Cobden taking over from Brennan on Cue Card. Harsh?
    Last edited by Ivantheterrible; 8th November 2017 at 5:00 PM.

  13. #253
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    Harsh indeed


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  14. #254
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    Smacks a little bit of trainer refusing to accept the horse is in decline and scapegoating the jockey perhaps....

  15. #255
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    I don't doubt that CC still impresses them at home every day........but then again, it's going to look that way, if you only view him through rose-tinted spectacles.

    It's not wholly-conclusive that the horse is in terminal decline, but his last few races very-much (to this observer, at any rate) show that he is some level of decline. Given what he has done for connections, and the self-evident risk of sending the horse out in a hotter race, after falling twice in his last three runs, I really would prefer it if they just retired him.

    If they must go to the well again, there's no harm in changing the jockey, just to see if it makes any difference. I don't think this is a jocking-off, per se, as Brennan himself only got the ride relatively recently. It smacks more of a change-up for a last hurrah, to me.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  16. #256
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I don't doubt that CC still impresses them at home every day........but then again, it's going to look that way, if you only view him through rose-tinted spectacles.

    It's not wholly-conclusive that the horse is in terminal decline, but his last few races very-much (to this observer, at any rate) show that he is some level of decline. Given what he has done for connections, and the self-evident risk of sending the horse out in a hotter race, after falling twice in his last three runs, I really would prefer it if they just retired him.

    If they must go to the well again, there's no harm in changing the jockey, just to see if it makes any difference. I don't think this is a jocking-off, per se, as Brennan himself only got the ride relatively recently. It smacks more of a change-up for a last hurrah, to me.
    Not sure Paddy would see it that way. Timing - a few days after a fall in a high profile race - is telling surely.
    Last edited by Ivantheterrible; 8th November 2017 at 5:30 PM.

  17. #257
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Maybe so, but jockeys are surely hardened to such things? It's an occupational hazard.

    It's generally only the likes of people on forums and SM that make a drama out of such matters.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  18. #258
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    Just shooting the s**t.

    They can’t touch you for it...

  19. #259
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post

    For one, Djakadam in Soft ground over Haydock's 3m would be a very stern test indeed for BdM; something that might equally apply to EoD, if he showed anything like his Irish Gold Cup form (imo).

    Native River already boast a comfortable victory over BdM at the trip on Soft ground (winning just under 4L conceding 1lb), and with fewer chase runs under his belt, is likely more progressive anyway. Minella Rocco is a dour-stayer who I would expect to dead-heat with a tortoise over 3m.

    The tactics on bdm were all wrong that day.

  20. #260
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    Betfair Chase has been increased in distance to almost 3m2f. That significantly changes the nature of the event, imo.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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