View Poll Results: Who will win the 2018 CH

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  • Buveur D'Air

    17 54.84%
  • Faugheen

    10 32.26%
  • Other

    4 12.90%
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Thread: The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

  1. #1021
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I got the impression the Supreme had a handicap's, here we come, look about it.

    If there's a danger to Buveur D'air it is surely Laurina

    Mullins said way back Melon could win an Arkle and when you think about it what else does he have?

    Can't see him sending the mare chasing
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  2. #1022
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardross View Post
    I thought I read somewhere that Summerville was staying hurdling ?
    He could be dangerous if he could jump. Needs plenty of schooling in that area but no doubt there is an engine there.
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  3. #1023
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    I got the impression the Supreme had a handicap's, here we come, look about it.
    Ignoring the ground I took the opposite view Tanlic. And having done my numbers since the Festival I'm convinced the first two are very smart, and I'll also be watching the next four home with interest next season. The three after that could also be interesting if popping up in a handicap on better ground. I reckon that's going to turn out to be a smart Supreme.
    Last edited by Maruco; 20th March 2018 at 10:48 AM.

  4. #1024
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Ignoring the ground I took the opposite view Tanlic. And having done my numbers since the Festival I'm convinced the first two are very smart, and I'll also be watching the next four home with interest next season. The three after that could also be interesting if popping up in a handicap on better ground. I reckon that's going to turn out to be a smart Supreme.
    I haven't finalised my figures yet but my initial calcs are saying the same as you, Maruco. My calcs tell me there wasn't a stage in the entire race where the Supreme runners were behind the CH runners. They got to the second flight ten lengths ahead of the CH field and weren't fully hauled back until after the second last.

    And that's not yet taking into account that Summerville Boy lost ground and momentum at both those last two flights. I haven't yet done a one-on-one comparison with Buveur D'Air but I suspect SB went from two out to the line five lengths faster before taking those mistakes into account.

    Having said that, as I said before, I think the Supreme runners established their form in that kind of ground through the winter whereas it probably compromised most of the CH field.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th March 2018 at 11:42 AM.
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  5. #1025
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    The champion hdl field we're nearly 2 seconds slower to the first flight, they then made up 3 seconds to the 2nd, an increase to almost another at the 3rd, they then eased down a tad by half a second to the 4th, an injection to the 5th saw them up by a second again...the top speed run to the 6th was identical in both races which had to be harder for the champion hurdlers, harder because they'd gone faster, and harder because they were up again by the time they jumped the second last, and harder because they carried more weight...the up hill run to the line saw them drop half a second....the times we're almost level at the line...in my opinion; the Supreme field would have suffered at the pace of the Champion and the Supreme principals would need to improve considerably to complete.
    Last edited by Maxbet; 20th March 2018 at 2:36 PM.

  6. #1026
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I should clarify, I time from jumping the first flight.

    From there I have the Supreme jumping the second flight two seconds (the clock I use doesn't do fractions/decimal points but it will even itself out over a race) ahead.

    Third: Supreme one second ahead

    Fourth: still one second ahead

    Fifth: still one second ahead

    Sixth: level

    Seventh: Supreme a second in front again

    Eighth: level

    Line: level


    I'll try again using a different video source to see if it throws up different readings.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th March 2018 at 1:12 PM.
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  7. #1027
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    I do the same and you're correct Maurice. I also had the first two rated particularly highly coming into the Festival, so I see the Supreme as confirming those ratings. They are both smart, but I want to see them both confirm this on good to soft. The first 9 home can be followed depending on where they're targeted.

  8. #1028
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Can't get my head around Summerville Boy, couldn't win a couple of Novice Hurdles at Cheltenham in Nov and Dec then goes and wins the supreme!

  9. #1029
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Can't get my head around Summerville Boy, couldn't win a couple of Novice Hurdles at Cheltenham in Nov and Dec then goes and wins the supreme!
    Probably very raw still, look how he jumped.

    His form was on the book last week mind
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  10. #1030
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Can't get my head around Summerville Boy, couldn't win a couple of Novice Hurdles at Cheltenham in Nov and Dec then goes and wins the supreme!
    He lost the race behind Western Ryder in the first 400 yards Tiggers. Nothing wants to go on and he's mad keen even after jumping the first hurdle.

    Compare that to Sandown when the Nicholls horse set a real clip and Summerville Boy's light frame appeared to relish the fast pace and testing ground. Two things he was sure to get last Tuesday.
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  11. #1031
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    Exactly that Lee. He wants a strongly run stiff two miles. Perfect for the Supreme, and also for a Champion Hurdle next season.

  12. #1032
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Having said that, as I said before, I think the Supreme runners established their form in that kind of ground through the winter whereas it probably compromised most of the CH field.
    The one exception being Sharjah who travelled well throughout but just couldn't finish his effort when in contention in the straight. He isn't quoted in the CH market but will be a price at Punchestown hopefully on way better ground.

  13. #1033
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    Reckon Samcro will go over 2m next time out.
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  14. #1034
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    The one exception being Sharjah who travelled well throughout but just couldn't finish his effort when in contention in the straight. He isn't quoted in the CH market but will be a price at Punchestown hopefully on way better ground.
    Yes. Rest assured, Euro, I haven't forgotten about him. For a horse who allegedly cannot put one leg in front of another in soft ground he ran with immense promise last week. (Jeeeezo... it is a week already!!)
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  15. #1035
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I haven't yet done a one-on-one comparison with Buveur D'Air but I suspect SB went from two out to the line five lengths faster before taking those mistakes into account.
    SB v BDA, timed from the first flight:

    Flight 2: SB (despite being in the second half of the field) 2 sec ahead.

    Flight 3: Level

    Flight 4: SB 1 sec ahead again

    Flight 5: SB still 1 sec ahead

    Flight 6: Level again

    Flight 7: SB 1 sec ahead again

    Flight 8: Level

    W Post: Level

    So, SB despite being in the rearward group through the first third-half of the race was never behind BDA who was never further back than at the first flight. Then from two out to the last, when BDA was disputing the lead and involved in a hard-driven tussle with Melon for the lead, he only made one second on SB despite the latter losing six lengths and momentum with a bad mistake at that second-last flight. Both completed the run-in in the same time despite Summerville Boy losing half-a-length and momentum at the last.

    I'm really finding it very hard to get away from the conclusion that Summerville Boy is a very high class novice, certainly in those conditions.
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