Cheltenham 2017/18

[Grasshopper]

I reckon Samcro would hack-up in all three novice hurdles myself.........he just looks different gravy to any other novice seen out this season.

[Maxbet]

I'm not sure I could fancy Samcro for the Supreme.

I might be tempted by 20/1 but not 8s.

I think his recent win over two miles reads like a Jeffrey Archer novel.

Which one:

A Twist in the Tale
Be Careful What You Wish
Best Kept Secret
Beyond Reasonable Doubt
Cometh the Hour
First Among Equals
Heaven
Hell
Only Time Will Tell
Paths of Glory
The First Miracle
Twelve Red Herrings

[Danny]

I've just had 14's Des ? If he lined up he'd be a short price and you can do what you like with it from there regardless of the form.

[Danny]

I reckon Samcro would hack-up in all three novice hurdles myself.........he just looks different gravy to any other novice seen out this season.

I hate/don't back short price (sub 2/1) favourites but when I was looking at some of the ones for this years festival I quite like all of them.

Get a bird, Boover, Apples Jade, Samcro, Altior and I'm yet to look at this Laurina or what ever her name is. I just get the feel that after studying my arse off for weeks trying to find value I'll see a lot of people waving winning acca slips at me after they've just gone the obvious route whilst trying to find some solace that there may still be at least a piece of fluff in my pockets.

I'm usually gagging to take these sorts on at the Festival but this year I've steered well clear of doing so, yet still can't bring myself to back them.

[Tanlic]

It's as simple as this..anyone who has backed Getabird , Kalashkinov or whatever would **** a brick if Samcro were to run and if they didn't they would be kidding themselves.

Of course there's no chance of him running in the Supreme 14/1 nrnb tells you that plus it was/is only an option to run in if it were soft.
You can add to that if the race cut up

The option to take on the 2 aforementioned rather than take on the opposition in the Ballymore would be madness so common sense should tell us it won't happen even if it's heavy. as the horse would probably stay 3 miles without a worry

[granger]

I reckon Samcro would hack-up in all three novice hurdles myself.........he just looks different gravy to any other novice seen out this season.

Faugheen would have too. Esteemed company

[Grasshopper]

Faugheen absolutely no certainty against Vautour that year in the Supreme.......or in the Ballymore........or the Bartlett!

[Grasshopper]

I hate/don't back short price (sub 2/1) favourites but when I was looking at some of the ones for this years festival I quite like all of them.

Get a bird, Boover, Apples Jade, Samcro, Altior and I'm yet to look at this Laurina or what ever her name is. I just get the feel that after studying my arse off for weeks trying to find value I'll see a lot of people waving winning acca slips at me after they've just gone the obvious route whilst trying to find some solace that there may still be at least a piece of fluff in my pockets.

I'm usually gagging to take these sorts on at the Festival but this year I've steered well clear of doing so yet still can't bring myself to back them.

I don't have a bean on Samcro in any race (apart from a piece of an early multiple), and will almost certainly not have a bet in whichever race he runs in (i.e. the Ballymore) on the day.

[Desert Orchid]

I've just had 14's Des ? If he lined up he'd be a short price and you can do what you like with it from there regardless of the form.

Yes, that's a solid enough angle, Danny. It didn't enter my head because there's no room left there after filling it with how poor Samcro's last race at 2m is

[Danny]

What price would tempt you though Grass ? How big would he have to go before you said o.k worth a crack ? I'm really averse to backing any horses 5/1 and under myself as a general rule but its something I'm thinking that I need to get over and be more open minded about if I'm ever to move forward in my punting to a more serious level. It doesn't really help that the handful of decent bets at those sort of short prices I've had this term have all been turned over despite all shortening in the betting by quite a margin some more than 50%.

If I think Boover is a 1/3 shot but he's available at lets say 4/6 on the day I should back him really shouldn't I ? I won't, but can't understand my own reasoning for not doing so ?

I've had about £75 e/w on Mohaayed at 33's (plus have him in plenty of daft multi's) for the County which firstly is a fairly large wager for me only on rare occasions do I go much bigger than that probably had handful of £500-£600 wagers on horses in my life ( all got stuffed ) . I don't bat an eyelid at letting decent bets go in what is, lets face it, a race you need plenty of luck in anyway with plenty of rouges and bandits coming to play. Yet I'd literally start having palpitations if I struck a couple of hundred on an odds on fav...it really doesn't make much sense does it. The logical part of my brain tells me its ridiculous but its something I can't control. I once struck an ante-post bet, only £40 on some boat of Mcain's to win the R.S.A I then had a moment of realisation that it was a crap bet as he was an utter boat. He was running that day at odds of 4/7 so I thought f' it I'll win the money back. Stuck 70 on a 4/7 it won, but was the worst 7-8 minutes of my life watching it bumble around in the mud. Apologies for aftertiming. It didn't even bother turning up at the festival if that makes anyone feel any better.

[Danny]

Yes, that's a solid enough angle, Danny. It didn't enter my head because there's no room left there after filling it with how poor Samcro's last race at 2m is

I think I came to the conclusion that I'd have rather taken on Samcro than Get a Bird earlier in the season when I backed Black Op. I know where you are coming from with that race Des, time wise, form wise and I'd normally be right in line with you to take him on, but visually, all form aside, he looks bloody good.

[Grasshopper]

What price would tempt you though Grass ? How big would he have to go before you said o.k worth a crack ? I'm really averse to backing any horses 5/1 and under myself as a general rule but its something I'm thinking that I need to get over and be more open minded about if I'm ever to move forward in my punting to a more serious level. It doesn't really help that the handful of decent bets at those sort of short prices I've had this term have all been turned over despite all shortening in the betting by quite a margin some more than 50%.

If I think Boover is a 1/3 shot but he's available at lets say 4/6 on the day I should back him really shouldn't I ? I won't, but can't understand my own reasoning for not doing so ?

I've had about £75 e/w on Mohaayed at 33's (plus have him in plenty of daft multi's) for the County which firstly is a fairly large wager for me only on rare occasions do I go much bigger than that probably had handful of £500-£600 wagers on horses in my life ( all got stuffed ) . I don't bat an eyelid at letting decent bets go in what is, lets face it, a race you need plenty of luck in anyway with plenty of rouges and bandits coming to play. Yet I'd literally start having palpitations if I struck a couple of hundred on an odds on fav...it really doesn't make much sense does it. The logical part of my brain tells me its ridiculous but its something I can't control. I once struck an ante-post bet, only £40 on some boat of Mcain's to win the R.S.A I then had a moment of realisation that it was a crap bet as he was an utter boat. He was running that day at odds of 4/7 so I thought f' it I'll win the money back. Stuck 70 on a 4/7 it won, but was the worst 7-8 minutes of my life watching it bumble around in the mud. Apologies for aftertiming. It didn't even bother turning up at the festival if that makes anyone feel any better.

If I'd had a winning Tuesday, and could back Samcro at Even money in the Ballymore, there's a fair chance I'd be on a kamikaze mission with him.*

Evens is the floor-price for me in a Festival race, and I don't recall ever backing an odds-on shot as a Single (though I've possibly had the occasional one in multis, to try and roll money over cheaply).


* Worth noting that I am in hospitality with Digger on the Wednesday, and expect to be full of beans by the Ballymore off-time.

[Ardross]

If I'd had a winning Tuesday, and could back Samcro at Even money in the Ballymore, there's a fair chance I'd be on a kamikaze mission with him.*

Evens is the floor-price for me in a Festival race, and I don't recall ever backing an odds-on shot as a Single (though I've possibly had the occasional one in multis, to try and roll money over cheaply).


* Worth noting that I am in hospitality with Digger on the Wednesday, and expect to be full of beans by the Ballymore off-time.

I gave been impressed by Next Destination and I don't think the Ballymore is a one horse race no matter how impressive Samcro has been. Long odds on favourites can be surprised in the Ballymore - Denman for a start .

[Kauto Abu]

Lads in the UK or Diamond Geezer more specifically . What sort of weather warnings, if any, are in place around the Cheltenham/Gloucestershire area? We’re on Red warning here in Ireland. Expecting up to 9 inches of snow on top of the 3-4 inches we got Tues/Wed. The country has gone into lockdown.


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[Diamond Geezer]

We're on a yellow warning currently although there's a red warning within about thirty miles so not much room for error. Snow is very fine and dry and blowing about a lot. The A40 from the Oxford direction has been closed owing to high winds. Not too much of an accumulation yet though worse over between Gloucester and the Forest Of Dean apparently, although that's not unusual. Latest local forecast indicates could be a bit worse tomorrow.

I don't think there's too much reason to worry about regarding the Festival .

[Double Handful]

I gave been impressed by Next Destination and I don't think the Ballymore is a one horse race no matter how impressive Samcro has been. Long odds on favourites can be surprised in the Ballymore - Denman for a start .

While not quite odds on, Pont Alexandre is another that springs to mind in this race. Think he went off at 5/4 about 5 years ago and was well beaten 10 Lengths. He came with a massive reputation and was many an Irish mans banker of the meeting. It can happen. Is OTBS the new, New One

[Kauto Abu]

We're on a yellow warning currently although there's a red warning within about thirty miles so not much room for error. Snow is very fine and dry and blowing about a lot. The A40 from the Oxford direction has been closed owing to high winds. Not too much of an accumulation yet though worse over between Gloucester and the Forest Of Dean apparently, although that's not unusual. Latest local forecast indicates could be a bit worse tomorrow.

I don't think there's too much reason to worry about regarding the Festival .

Thanks DG. Hopefully not. I saw part of Wales was on red so as you say not too much room for error.


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[Danny]

Just had another little "what if" brainwave. I can't say as I've been much more impressed with a novice this term than First Flow. Now I commended Kim Baileys attitude after FF' s latest victory of basically " fcuk Cheltenham! ". He was basically pointing to this being a very good horse for the future and one he wanted to look after. However I'm wondering if sometimes these things said in the heat of the moment are more based around the presumption of it being quick ground at the festival ? The horse obviously revels in soft ground. If Kim hasn't put him away for the season and has been keeping him just in case an opportunity arises then it would be pretty tempting to have a go should it come up soft. It begs the question if he was so certain that the horse wouldn't run at Cheltenham regardless of what he did then why enter him in the first place?

Generally a 25/1 shot NRNB but I've used one of these price boosts with laddies to get 30/1. Again a very long shot to actually line up but if he did I don't think there would be many with stronger claims and I'd include Get a bird in that. So another decent chunk laid out. Tbh if I find many more of these type of bets I'm going to need to sell a kidney to cover them or at least lease it out until I pick up a few refunds.

As you like gents.

[Kauto Abu]

Much snow overnight DG?


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[Diamond Geezer]

Conditions seriously deteriorated overnight, a lot of roads blocked with snowdrifts and people trapped in cars. Listening to local radio now and snow ploughs are finding cars totally buried out in the Cotswolds near to where NTD, JJON FOB and KB train so not sure all their staff will make it in although I know their gallops have been open every day up to yesterday. Heavy snow forecast here later today as well.

I would think the Festival will be OK, temperatures forecast to be +3 by tomorrow afternoon and climbing thereafter so snow will be gone by midweek, just a question of how much it dries out then by the following week. The course has excellent drainage so don't see it being worse than soft. They don't use the New Course ( which they use Thurs and Friday) at all during the season so it hasn't been opened up to the elements at all.