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Thread: Novice Hurdlers 2017/2018

  1. #341
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    This was Kim Bailey after his last win. Seems less about the ground, and more about saving the horse for the future.......which probably works in favour of him running, because I reckon KB can't affords to fu*ck about when a good one lands in his lap.

    "He'll be entered for Cheltenham but I think it's very unlikely he'll go. We won't do very much with him for a couple of weeks.
    "I don't think the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham is what he wants. If he doesn't run again this season, he doesn't have to.
    "I said to the owners all along if we can win three novice hurdles, we might just leave him alone.
    Cheers Grassy. If they stick to their guns then a run in the supreme seems highly unlikely, regardless of the ground.
    In terms of the angle to take now (Aware you already have massive Ante post Exchange prices) I'm wondering if backing E/W with Ladbrokes NRNB boosted to 30/1 as highlighted by Danny is a the shrewd move. Alternatively, wait a week, hope he is declared and use one of the concessions (Sky & Coral already offering) of Money back as free bet if he loses and just back him win only as a bet to nothing - Hopefully still getting 25/1

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    Cracking Smart out for the season

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Fu*cking sick.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Cheers Grassy. If they stick to their guns then a run in the supreme seems highly unlikely, regardless of the ground.
    In terms of the angle to take now (Aware you already have massive Ante post Exchange prices) I'm wondering if backing E/W with Ladbrokes NRNB boosted to 30/1 as highlighted by Danny is a the shrewd move. Alternatively, wait a week, hope he is declared and use one of the concessions (Sky & Coral already offering) of Money back as free bet if he loses and just back him win only as a bet to nothing - Hopefully still getting 25/1
    The concessions from Skybet and Corals apply now (first bet on the race from 23/02 and 28/02 respectively). Free bets expire after 24 hours although that shouldn’t be a problem


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    Literally not a chance of still getting 25/1 DH on the day given soft ground and him running he goes off single figures.

    Tbh I'd imagine if he's declared he'll half in price within 24 hours.
    Last edited by Danny; 3rd March 2018 at 5:53 PM.
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  7. #347
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    Yes already taken the plunge with the boosted 30/1 NRMB with Ladbrokes after Grassy alerted me to movement on the exchange Price (Cheers Nick ).

    Figured there was no point waiting as I agree he could go off 12/1 if soft and if declared. There was also no point in taking the coral/Skybet concession now as that onyl counts for your first bet placed on the race. So with FF potentially still a NR the concessions would have been wasted.

  8. #348
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Yes already taken the plunge with the boosted 30/1 NRMB with Ladbrokes after Grassy alerted me to movement on the exchange Price (Cheers Nick ).

    Figured there was no point waiting as I agree he could go off 12/1 if soft and if declared. There was also no point in taking the coral/Skybet concession now as that onyl counts for your first bet placed on the race. So with FF potentially still a NR the concessions would have been wasted.
    Think more positive DH a bit more of the Grassy type conviction with your bets.

    If First Flow runs, he wins ! If he doesn't turn up we just find the winner and they can stick their concessions where the sun doesn't shine.
    Last edited by Danny; 3rd March 2018 at 6:04 PM.
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    Special preview about Kalshnikov's Cheltenham preparation on ATR now

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Yes already taken the plunge with the boosted 30/1 NRMB with Ladbrokes after Grassy alerted me to movement on the exchange Price (Cheers Nick ).

    Figured there was no point waiting as I agree he could go off 12/1 if soft and if declared. There was also no point in taking the coral/Skybet concession now as that onyl counts for your first bet placed on the race. So with FF potentially still a NR the concessions would have been wasted.
    Concession is for first bet placed on a horse that runs
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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Concession is for first bet placed on a horse that runs
    Wasn't aware of that. Cheers Wilson

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    100% certainly is with Skybet anyhow, thought I read the same with Coral’s offer but can’t find that bit now so would be worth checking with them but I’d be surprised if it was any different
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    Been a more serious move for Samcro this morning in the Supreme gone into around 11/2 after he's been hovering between 10' and 18's for the last few days and it appears Bet365 have awoken to their rick as they've cut him to 5/2 from 14/1. Looks like this may actually be possible, I'd be very surprised even though I've backed it myself if he does line up but I'd certainly be pleased as it would be a double result for me. Having a good price on him to run in it but also having quite a large interest in Black Op for the Ballymore I'd be glad to have him out of the way in that contest. Things don't usually work out that well though so I won't hold my breath.

    First flow also to a lesser extent looking a bit more solid on Betfair also for this. Can't help but wonder though if it just a few quid from the talking horses faithful who've knocked both these in as it wouldn't take much in terms of money to shift them.

    Still, we live in hope.
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    It won't happen and it's a marketing come-on rather than a rick. Paddy (Ruby) and Betfair SB (Gordon) have Getabird shortest in the NRNB and open markets respectively. Go figure.
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    If thats the case Archie how come you could cash out at over 3 times your stake up to 9am this morning. Weird marketing!

    That said its now back to just full stake

    IMO it started off as a clever bit of marketing to get punters to fund their account and at the time Samcro was never going to the Supreme but over the last week or so things have changed . Yes theres only a very small chance he will switch but Bet365 must be shitting themselves with their liability
    Last edited by frontrunner; 5th March 2018 at 12:04 PM.

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    Novice Hurdlers 2017/2018

    If they get all the rain forecast there’s a big chance he goes. The Supreme looks a lot easier than the Ballymore & Mengli Kahn looks held by Getabird. Betfair have also cut him drastically from this time last week.


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    Last edited by Kauto Abu; 5th March 2018 at 12:17 PM.

  18. #357
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    I agree Archie with the fact it probably won't happen I wouldn't have invested a nicker at any price without NRNB.

    But I'm with Front runner as laying 14/1 NRNB has no upside. Most of the people who operate ante-post aren't complete and utter mugs or addicts ( erm maybe myself excluded ) so getting people to deposit funds into their account a week prior to Cheltenham makes no sense. Most addicts or desperado's don't punt Ante-post as waiting for returns isn't an option they'd rather have their next bet now.

    O.k even if its 99/100 they just refund your money and make nothing 1/100 they are getting their pants well and truly pulled down.

    Actually begs the question if that is their tactic Archie why cut him to 5/2 now rather than just letting people keep filling up their accounts at 14's ?
    Last edited by Danny; 5th March 2018 at 12:16 PM.
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    amazing they let the 14s last so long. was a horrendous error to begin with.

    5/2 still too big btw

  20. #359
    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesRB View Post
    amazing they let the 14s last so long. was a horrendous error to begin with.

    5/2 still too big btw
    Correct. He’s an even money shot NRNB. I wonder does Tony Calvin post here. He put it up in RUK betting Lab last Friday, a long time after I flagged it up here. By his twitter ac there’s some amount of people invested in it. B365 are sitting on a huge liability.

    Say samcro did go Supreme. They’d have Dortmond Park still for Ballymore & Blow By Blow for the spud race. They’re gonna have to double up Samcro somewhere.


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    i wonder if calvin's constant reporting of it all weekend meant 365 finally bit the bullet. more exposure = more and more bets

    they must be sitting on some enormous liabilities.

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