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Thread: Novice Hurdlers 2017/2018

  1. #321
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Don't know **** about the Supreme fav but backed him today along with Samcro in the right race, Altior, Buvi and the lot going on to Native River.......don't recall knowing there was a doubt about where Samcro would run????? Pays to be ignorant sometime
    Formely Fist of Fury

  2. #322
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Don't know **** about the Supreme fav but backed him today along with Samcro in the right race, Altior, Buvi and the lot going on to Native River.......don't recall knowing there was a doubt about where Samcro would run????? Pays to be ignorant sometime
    i think elliott floated the idea after the deloitte but it never really looked likely tbf

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  4. #323
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Latest acceptors for the championship novices' chases and novices' hurdles, following yesterday's scratchings deadline.

    http://cheltenham.thejockeyclub.co.u...r-the-festival

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    edgt (21st February 2018), Kauto Abu (21st February 2018), viking (21st February 2018)

  6. #324
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    If The Cap Fits out of cheltenham

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    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesRB View Post
    If The Cap Fits out of cheltenham
    That’s a shame. Have they said why?


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  8. #326
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    That’s a shame. Have they said why?


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    If The Cap Fits will not run at the Cheltenham Festival due to a gluteal muscle tear.

    We had been targeting him at the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the opening race of the four day meeting.

    As disappointing as it is to be missing the Festival, we have to do what is correct by the horse & give him time to fully recover.

    We will now focus on getting him back to full fitness in order to defend his unbeaten record over hurdles at Aintree's Grand National meeting.

  9. #327
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Fry dipping Cheltenham again, or is that too cynical?


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  10. #328
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    A gluteal muscle tear?

    That must be a pain in the @rse.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #329
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    That looked a serious performance from Global Citizen.

    Scarlet Dragon could have got closer with a less rearward ride and showed promise.

    I'll crunch some numbers during the week.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    That looked a serious performance from Global Citizen.

    Scarlet Dragon could have got closer with a less rearward ride and showed promise.

    I'll crunch some numbers during the week.
    I'll be very interested to see what you come up with in terms of numbers for that performance, DO.

    I've backed Summerville Boy for the Supreme on the back of his performance in the Tolworth, where he beat the Nicholls fav that ran the Global Citizen race. I still think he's a fair price, but the way Mont Des Avaloirs was brushed aside by Global Citizen makes me think the Pauling horse might be pretty smart (albeit I do have a suspicion MDA will prove better on slower ground).

    Does anyone have a strong view on Kalashnikov by the way? Amy Murphy seems fairly adamant he will be better on a sounder surface, but the way he has failed to travel through the Tolworth and Betfair makes me think he will be taken off his feet in a Supreme on likely better ground. Clearly has a huge engine though...
    Last edited by trackside528; 24th February 2018 at 11:39 PM.

  13. #331
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    RP reports Global Citizen unlikely to take up engagements at Cheltenham


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  14. #332
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    Quote Originally Posted by trackside528 View Post
    I'll be very interested to see what you come up with in terms of numbers for that performance, DO.

    I've backed Summerville Boy for the Supreme on the back of his performance in the Tolworth, where he beat the Nicholls fav that ran the Global Citizen race. I still think he's a fair price, but the way Mont Des Avaloirs was brushed aside by Global Citizen makes me think the Pauling horse might be pretty smart (albeit I do have a suspicion MDA will prove better on slower ground).

    Does anyone have a strong view on Kalashnikov by the way? Amy Murphy seems fairly adamant he will be better on a sounder surface, but the way he has failed to travel through the Tolworth and Betfair makes me think he will be taken off his feet in a Supreme on likely better ground. Clearly has a huge engine though...
    Kalashnikov lost a shoe and suffered an overreach in the Tolworth. That wasn’t his running.

  15. #333
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I haven't been following this thread all the way through.

    Do any other clockwatchers have a fast time for Vinndication for his Huntingdon win from Western Ryder?

    It's probably just a case of this being the only true-run race of the day but any other interpretation makes the winner look very fast indeed.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #334
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    With the ground now possibly and likely on the softer side on day 1, does anyone else think it could bring First Flow into the reckoning for the Supreme? He's a Big price for a horse 3/3 over hurdles in his novice season with a grade 2 victory lto.

  17. #335
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    I backed FF Win (181) and Place (25) on 24th January, and wrote it off 48hrs later.

    I’d be delighted to get a run, but they seemed pretty sure they were going to swerve the Festival.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  18. #336
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Backed FF Win and Place (181/25) and have written it off. Would obviously be delighted if they ran him.
    Wasn't aware he was a likely non runner, Nick. Has this been common knowledge or readily communicated by connections? And if so, why? Likely quicker ground expected?

    Edit: see your edited post above. Cheers
    Last edited by Double Handful; 3rd March 2018 at 12:00 AM.

  19. #337
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Expected ground conditions.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  20. #338
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    With the ground now possibly and likely on the softer side on day 1, does anyone else think it could bring First Flow into the reckoning for the Supreme? He's a Big price for a horse 3/3 over hurdles in his novice season with a grade 2 victory lto.
    Wrote this yesterday DH but had put it on the Cheltenham thread following a discussion about Samcro NRNB based on chances of soft ground.

    Just had another little "what if" brainwave. I can't say as I've been much more impressed with a novice this term than First Flow. Now I commended Kim Baileys attitude after FF' s latest victory of basically " fcuk Cheltenham! ". He was basically pointing to this being a very good horse for the future and one he wanted to look after. However I'm wondering if sometimes these things said in the heat of the moment are more based around the presumption of it being quick ground at the festival ? The horse obviously revels in soft ground. If Kim hasn't put him away for the season and has been keeping him just in case an opportunity arises then it would be pretty tempting to have a go should it come up soft. It begs the question if he was so certain that the horse wouldn't run at Cheltenham regardless of what he did then why enter him in the first place?

    Generally a 25/1 shot NRNB but I've used one of these price boosts with laddies to get 30/1. Again a very long shot to actually line up but if he did I don't think there would be many with stronger claims and I'd include Get a bird in that. So another decent chunk laid out. Tbh if I find many more of these type of bets I'm going to need to sell a kidney to cover them or at least lease it out until I pick up a few refunds.

    As you like gents.
    Last edited by Danny; Yesterday at 6:23 AM.
    Last edited by Danny; 3rd March 2018 at 7:36 AM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  21. #339
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    So you did Danny. It will be very interesting to keep an eye on the weather and going updates over the coming days.
    You'd have to think/hope they'll consider taking their chance if it comes up soft in the Supreme. Cheers

  22. #340
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    This was Kim Bailey after his last win. Seems less about the ground, and more about saving the horse for the future.......which probably works in favour of him running, because I reckon KB can't affords to fu*ck about when a good one lands in his lap.

    "He'll be entered for Cheltenham but I think it's very unlikely he'll go. We won't do very much with him for a couple of weeks.
    "I don't think the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham is what he wants. If he doesn't run again this season, he doesn't have to.
    "I said to the owners all along if we can win three novice hurdles, we might just leave him alone.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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