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Thread: Novice Chasers 2017/2018

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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Percy hasn't won a graded chase. His rating is based almost entirely on his handicap win and the placed horses in that race haven't franked the form in any way.
    If winning a Graded chase prior to Cheltenham is the measure of an RSA winner, then a lot of people will have gone skint opposing Might Bite last season, archie.

    I don't see how you can look at the handicap in isolation either, and even if you do, he beat the placed horses so pointless, it hardly matters what they've subsequently done.

    I can understand why people would want to be with something else, but if the suggestion is that he hasn't done enough to justify favouritism, then I can't agree with that.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Novice Chasers 2017/2018

    He’s not a G1 horse in my opinion. He’s shy of that. He got beat by Our Duke the other day in a G2 getting 7lbs. I feel OD will be well off it in a Gold Cup & if I’m totally honest OD won that a tad cosy. Nevertheless PP had a very hard race just over 3 weeks shy of the festival. He’s a horrible price, Jury Duty beat him!!!

    Monalee is my idea of the winner & I’ve been backing him accordingly even prior to his chase debut from 16s down. He proved his G1 class at Leopardstown and will come on for that as it was his first full race since November. Bar that Christmas fall his jumping has been exemplary and Noel Fehily was raving about him after the race.


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    Last edited by Kauto Abu; 19th February 2018 at 5:22 PM.

  3. #623
    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    Novice Chasers 2017/2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Brave.
    Fortune favors the brave.

    Shattered Love has already finished ahead of him. Add in Monalee, possibly Yanworth & one of the Mullins duo of Al Boum photo or Invitation Only and there’s more than enough class there to get him beat.


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    Last edited by Kauto Abu; 19th February 2018 at 5:17 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kauto Abu View Post
    He’s not a G1 horse in my opinion. He’s shy of that. He got beat by Our Duke the other day in a G2 getting 7lbs. I feel OD will be well off it in a Gold Cup & if I’m totally honest OD won that a tad cosy. Nevertheless PP had a very hard race just over 3 weeks shy of the festival. He’s a horrible price.

    Monalee is my idea of the winner & I’ve been backing him accordingly even prior to his chase debut from 16s down. He proved his G1 class at Leopardstown and will come on for that as it was his first full race since November. Bar that Christmas fall his jumping has been exemplary and Noel Fehily was raving about him after the race.


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    I fundamentally disagree with the assertion that a chaser who wins a Grade 1 restricted to novices, is automatically superior to a novice who is second in an open Grade 2.

    I do agree with you on Monalee though - he has an excellent chance in the RSA. I just don't think there is very-much at all between the pair.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 19th February 2018 at 5:16 PM.
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    It's not a requirement, Grassy, but moving up in class is something that even connections have expressed concern about in the past. I think he's a smashing horse (he's in one of my tens to follow) but, rather like Our Duke, I think he's best suited to Nationals. I prefer Monalee's profile.
    Most of these novice races at the Festival are slightly iffy because most of the form is on very soft or heavy ground.
    Last edited by archie; 19th February 2018 at 5:19 PM.
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    Senior Member Kauto Abu's Avatar
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    If Yanworth were a definite runner for this I’d place lay PP. I personally think he’s over hyped.


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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I fundamentally disagree with the assertion that a chaser who wins a Grade 1 restricted to novices, is automatically superior to a novice who is second in an open Grade 2.

    I do agree with you on Monalee though - he has an excellent chance in the RSA. I just don't think there is very-much at all between the pair.
    And in turn if there's not much between PP and Monalee, then there's nothing between Percy, Invitation Only, Al Boum photo and Dounikos with all 4 finishing within 1.5 lengths of each other. And over the longer trip one of the ones in behind Monalee could improve more for the step up.

    Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.

    As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.

    As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.

    As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.

    As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.
    The Albert Bartlett is a much sterner stamina test than the RSA.

    As for taking PP and Monalee on, what the hell with? Black Corton Lol.

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    Novice Chasers 2017/2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    And in turn if there's not much between PP and Monalee, then there's nothing between Percy, Invitation Only, Al Boum photo and Dounikos with all 4 finishing within 1.5 lengths of each other. And over the longer trip one of the ones in behind Monalee could improve more for the step up.

    Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.

    As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.

    As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.
    I actually think Monalee got outpaced in that. If memory serves me right both the AB hurdle and the World Hurdle were slowly ran which allowed Penhill & Nichols Canyon to use their pace late on and outpace the stayers.

    Also DH you could well argue Monalee will come on a lot for the run. Most of the ones behind him at Leopardstown all had runs over Xmas. Monalee took that horrific fall early in his Xmas race which had him feeling sorry for himself and sore after the kicking he got so to win last time shows his toughness off an interrupted prep.

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    Last edited by Kauto Abu; 19th February 2018 at 5:38 PM.

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    Novice Chasers 2017/2018

    Double post
    Last edited by Kauto Abu; 19th February 2018 at 5:36 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    And in turn if there's not much between PP and Monalee, then there's nothing between Percy, Invitation Only, Al Boum photo and Dounikos with all 4 finishing within 1.5 lengths of each other. And over the longer trip one of the ones in behind Monalee could improve more for the step up.

    Let's also not forget Monalee was outstayed over 3m on good ground at both Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals last season.

    As suggested by Granger and Euro, Monalee has gears and he can race keenly. I'm not sure the JLT isn't the better option for him.

    As much as I can admire both Percy and Monalee, I'm happy to take them both on in the RSA on a value basis. They're both too short imo.
    Taking the front pair on from a value perspective, is a different thing to taking them on because you don't think they're good enough though, DH.

    I thought Monalee won the Flogas with something in hand, tbh. He made-all at a decent clip, and still beat all-comers as they came to him.

    I don't have any stamina concerns with him at all. He was simply beaten by a very, very good horse in Penhill (who I'd probably back in the Stayers if he showed up), and he was beaten too far out at Punchestown, for it to have been a stamina issue (possibly just OTT for the season).
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    The Albert Bartlett is a much sterner stamina test than the RSA.

    As for taking PP and Monalee on, what the hell with? Black Corton Lol.
    Well I have black Corton ew in multiple at 25/1, so kind of yeah. I think BC is very solid each way. But depending on who lines up of Dounikos, Al Boum photo & Invitation only, I'd be looking to take my chances with one of them as a win bet on the day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Taking the front pair on from a value perspective, is a different thing to taking them on because you don't think they're good enough though, DH.

    I thought Monalee won the Flogas with something in hand, tbh. He made-all at a decent clip, and still beat all-comers as they came to him.

    I don't have any stamina concerns with him at all. He was simply beaten by a very, very good horse in Penhill (who I'd probably back in the Stayers if he showed up), and he was beaten too far out at Punchestown, for it to have been a stamina issue (possibly just OTT for the season).
    My thought coming out of the DFR was that Monalee had more gears and it was this speed that won him the race over 2m4. He picked up very swiftly after the last which i view as turn of foot. I think abp & Dounikos definitely more of stayers and over longer they'd have got to him.

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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kauto Abu View Post
    I actually think Monalee got outpaced in that. If memory serves me right both the AB hurdle and the World Hurdle were slowly ran which allowed Penhill & Nichols Canyon to use their pace late on and outpace the stayers.

    Also DH you could well argue Monalee will come on a lot for the run. Most of the ones behind him at Leopardstown all had runs over Xmas. Monalee took that horrific fall early in his Xmas race which had him feeling sorry for himself and sore after the kicking he got so to win last time shows his toughness off an interrupted prep.

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    This is a fair point about Monalee returning after a bad fall. Dounikos and Invitation only had better preps coming off wins lto. But Al Boum photo was also running after falling lto, same as Monalee. So maybe he's the one to take out of it... He was definitely closing Monalee down and would have collared him in another 100 yards imo.

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    ABP fell at the last in that race, not with a mile to go. He'd run his race, and wouldn't have come on as much as Monalee would have.

    Still think you're failing to account for Monalee making all. He was there to be shot at, and repelled all-comers, which basically means one of two things; either Monalee stays better than the opposition, or he was not only absolutely spot-on with the fractions, but every other other jockey in the race managed to fu*ck them up.

    I know which of the two scenarios I think is more plausible, but each to their own.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  16. #636
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I would be loath to dismiss Balck Corton's chances in the RSA.

    On Saturday, from six out to the line he covered the distance two seconds - almost nine lengths - faster than Waiting Patiently. As I said elsewhere, I do think Waiting Patiently's field were slowing down but he got the least inefficient ride on the day and if they don't go flat out in the RSA Black Corton clearly has plenty of late pace.
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    Black Corton has been on the go for too long -unlikely to complete the course in my opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    Black Corton has been on the go for too long -unlikely to complete the course in my opinion.
    Agree. Admirable record but what he’s achieved in small fields is a long way from what will be required in the RSA. Was on the way to defeat by the ill fated Fountains Windfall and previously by Sizing Tennessee when those rivals came down


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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    ABP fell at the last in that race, not with a mile to go. He'd run his race, and wouldn't have come on as much as Monalee would have.

    Still think you're failing to account for Monalee making all. He was there to be shot at, and repelled all-comers, which basically means one of two things; either Monalee stays better than the opposition, or he was not only absolutely spot-on with the fractions, but every other other jockey in the race managed to fu*ck them up.

    I know which of the two scenarios I think is more plausible, but each to their own.
    You're a tough nut to crack Mr. Grasshopper

    In fairness, when you put it like you have here in terms of the fractions scenario, you make a fair and valid case. I suppose if I revert to why I started reviewing this RSA market, I started out looking for reasons to oppose Monalee (And Percy) thinking the prices were too short. I've watched the DRF race again tonight twice, once watching Monalee only and the other watching mainly Al Boum Photo & Dounikos.

    Something I didn't necessarily acknowledge earlier is just how beautiful a jumper Monalee is. Truly majestic over his fences! And Fehily did indeed do a splendid job in setting the fractions, but it was his jumping at every fence that kept him one step ahead of the rest all the way. And in an RSA in particular, Jumping is the name of the game.

    The one point I made earlier that bore true again in reviewing the race, was that after the 3rd last Fehily injected the pace and both Dounikos & ABP were the first of the leading 6 to be pushed along (Notably before Snow Falcon & Invitation only). So again that shows the pace/gears/turn of foot that Monalee possesses that I referred to earlier. As they got to the line it was the same 2 Dounikos & ABP that were closing the fastest - which I felt validated my view that these 2 were more the stayers and that over a longer trip on that day, both could have got to Monalee.

    In summary, I'm not saying Monalee won't win the RSA. His jumping alone could be enough to win it for him. I also have to factor in that even though I viewed Monalee as getting outstayed last year, you rightly point out Penhill as a very good horse and on objective reflection, you'd have to consider that 2nd as a positive in that it's festival experience/form on good ground.

    With Dounikos now looking NHC bound, 12/1 for Al Boum Photo versus 3/1 Monalee for a longer race, with a greater emphasis on Stamina, I think its still fair to make the case that Al Boum Photo represents good value as he was the one staying on the best in the Flogas - and he only finished a length behind. I can see some exotic forecasts and tricasts in my crystal ball

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Something I didn't necessarily acknowledge earlier is just how beautiful a jumper Monalee is.
    He jumps with alacrity, Shane.

    To be fair, I'm not trying to put anyone off their fancies. I just think questioning Monalee's stamina might lead someone to draw the wrong conclusions from the Flogas, that's all. In my view, if it was all down to Monalee having pace that was absent in the others, he would have won a lot easier and a lot further. In my view, all he did was keep finding when asked.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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