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Thread: Novice Chasers 2017/2018

  1. #441
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post

    I think Footpad will be hard beaten in the Arkle. Best jumping novice-chaser I've seen in a long time.
    Best overall since Sprinter and best irish novice since Flemenstar
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  2. #442
    Senior Member fonz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Best overall since Sprinter and best irish novice since Flemenstar
    What was your favourite round of jumping from him, Granger?

    I'd say his first Fortria personally although he jumped round so majestically in that ultimately doomed Lexus bid when Lynchy just let him bowl along! I still can't believe he folded on the run in
    Last edited by fonz; 2nd January 2018 at 10:33 PM.

  3. #443
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    I’m not trying to detract from Footpad as he’s looked a natural over fences. However I think it’s dangerous to put him down as a banker as many are doing.
    In PM you have an opponent who has bettered him on more than one occasion over hurdles and has proven he can handle a fence. At 5 times the price I’m willing to take the chance PM will confirm the form over the larger obstacles rather than guess that Footpad has improved past him.

    The one negative is this setback and I’m yet to read any updates on that subject from HDB.


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    There’s no guessing involved with Footpad, TheBear. It is self-evident that he has achieved plenty more over fences than Petit Mouchoir, and it’s the Gigi horse that has it all to prove now, following his setback.

    If he makes it to the Irish Arkle, Footpad will have both a fitness and experience advantage, and PM will need to be all you hope - and more - to worry him. The 1L and 3L defeats in their last two head-to-heads suggest that PM was the better hurdler, and I don’t dispute that....but it is not that much of a superiority, and one I think is rendered largely irrelevant anyway, given the way Footpad has gone over fences.

    I have maximum respect for PM, but Footpad is a transformed animal over fences, imo, and he would comfortably be the banker of the meeting for me, if Apples Jade was sent anywhere other than the Mares Hurdle.

    Last edited by Grasshopper; 3rd January 2018 at 1:44 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  4. #444
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    I’m not trying to detract from Footpad as he’s looked a natural over fences. However I think it’s dangerous to put him down as a banker as many are doing.
    In PM you have an opponent who has bettered him on more than one occasion over hurdles and has proven he can handle a fence. At 5 times the price I’m willing to take the chance PM will confirm the form over the larger obstacles rather than guess that Footpad has improved past him.

    The one negative is this setback and I’m yet to read any updates on that subject from HDB.


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    We've been watching different races. You can put Footpad's limitations in the bin. He just needs to jump around. 15/8 is a very good price.

  5. #445
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    My worry with Petit M apart from his injury is he was beaten through lack of stamina? speed? class? it doesn't really matter because what was evident is he was already on the map.

    Footpad looked like a horse who wasn't quite there yet and has improved no end since.

    I will say however if I had backed Footpad and PM turned up I'd be concerned as he has obvious ability
    Formely Fist of Fury

  6. #446
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post

    I have maximum respect for PM, but Footpad is a transformed animal over fences, imo, and he would comfortably be the banker of the meeting for me, if Apples Jade was sent anywhere other than the Mares Hurdle.

    Weren’t exactly the same assumptions being made with Brain Power being made prior to being truly tested in the Henry VIII? Everyone was waxing lyrical about his speed over the fences and how he was a completely different prospect over the larger obstacles. However as soon as he was truly tested the same limitations were exposed.

    At this point you’re probably going to throw Death Duty in my face but I’d argue he is in no way a 2 mike horse and probably has now proven to be not as good as they were expecting him to be.

    My argument is not that PM is definitely a superior animal, just that he’s value at the prices considering what we know. I’d also say Footpad is poor value over 2 months out from the race and likely to face 2 high quality opponents (Sceau Royal) on the day.


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  7. #447
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Aren’t you guilty of making a similar assumption about PM and SR (that they are high quality), based on the same amount of evidence that was available about Brain Power i.e. a sole chase start?

    No matter. With novice-chasers, we rarely find out how good they really are/sort-out the pecking-order, until they have met each other at the Spring Festivals, and there is always therefore a certain amount of conjecture involved, when trying to determine which is best going into those Festivals. It’s not an exact science.

    I appreciate you are looking at PM from a value perspective, and to be honest, I wouldn’t put you off at the current price. But you don’t need to question what Footpad has achieved, in order to justify your bet. The form of his two novice-chases is there for all to see, and whilst I would personally be disinclined to go in at 15/8, I certainly wouldn’t want to lay that price either. Anyone who has taken a positive view on Footpad is entitled to be perfectly happy with their position, imo.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  8. #448
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fonz View Post
    What was your favourite round of jumping from him, Granger?

    Irish Arkle in the fog
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  9. #449
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Sceau Royal has beaten just about every potential Arkle contender this side of the water. Footpad has beaten a decent animal who was running over an inadequate trip and Brelade who has been similarly spanked in two outings since. So no, I don’t think I’m making the same assumption with him. As for PM, I’m relying mainly on his hurdles form where he is a grade 1 winner in open company. Admittedly that doesn’t always work out.

    I’ll also admit that searching for value in an Arkle market usually amounts to ignoring the bleeding obvious and being the poorer for it. I’ll happily jump aboard the hype train if Footpad lives up to it in March but from a punting perspective I can back PM each way 3 places 1/4 odds and still walk away with more profit than taking 15/8 even if PM ends up having a front row seat of Footpads arse.


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  10. #450
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    No worries.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  11. #451
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    Sceau Royal has beaten just about every potential Arkle contender this side of the water. Footpad has beaten a decent animal who was running over an inadequate trip and Brelade who has been similarly spanked in two outings since. So no, I don’t think I’m making the same assumption with him. As for PM, I’m relying mainly on his hurdles form where he is a grade 1 winner in open company. Admittedly that doesn’t always work out.

    I’ll also admit that searching for value in an Arkle market usually amounts to ignoring the bleeding obvious and being the poorer for it. I’ll happily jump aboard the hype train if Footpad lives up to it in March but from a punting perspective I can back PM each way 3 places 1/4 odds and still walk away with more profit than taking 15/8 even if PM ends up having a front row seat of Footpads arse.


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    Check your sums again!!

  12. #452
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Yes you are correct BoS. My mistake. It still makes a good bet in my eyes as I believe the win part of the bet is very much alive.


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  14. #453
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    He's 10/1 with 365, 1/4 odds so if one were that way inclined they could lay off the win part of the bet - there's bits and pieces around at 12.5.

    Footpad is no bigger than 15/8 so the 2.5/1 place odds, less the haircut you'd be losing on the win part by laying, less commission and you're probably looking at about the same price for Footpad to win and PM to finish first three. Depending on how much you want on.

    But personally I'd prefer the win bet on Footpad as, despite who he's trained by, there appears less risk of him missing the race given the injury to PM. That said I reckon he'll be shades of odds against on the day unless connections decide against running Sceau Royal against him so I'll hold fire for now, having missed the nice prices.
    Last edited by wilsonl; 3rd January 2018 at 1:58 PM.
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  15. #454
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    Interesting on The Verdict on RUK today they described Yanworth as "a horse you cannot warm to !"
    Very very apt ; they must be guests on here.

  16. #455
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edgt View Post
    Interesting on The Verdict on RUK today they described Yanworth as "a horse you cannot warm to !"
    Very very apt ; they must be guests on here.
    Probably has a lot to do with being a beaten favourite at the last two festivals.

  17. #456
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    I share a similar view but based on his last 2 runs - I backed him at Newbury and then jumped ship to Willoughby at Cheltenham. C0ck

  18. #457
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    I'd still fancy Willoughby Court to reverse the form on better ground.

  19. #458
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    I'd still fancy Willoughby Court to reverse the form on better ground.
    and/or on level weight
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  20. #459
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    Will almost certainly will be with Willoughby, but he can't make mistakes like he did 3 or 4 out in the Dipper

  21. #460
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Monalee reported to be "improving by the day" by Henry de Bromhead.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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