Last edited by fonz; 2nd January 2018 at 10:33 PM.
There’s no guessing involved with Footpad, TheBear. It is self-evident that he has achieved plenty more over fences than Petit Mouchoir, and it’s the Gigi horse that has it all to prove now, following his setback.
If he makes it to the Irish Arkle, Footpad will have both a fitness and experience advantage, and PM will need to be all you hope - and more - to worry him. The 1L and 3L defeats in their last two head-to-heads suggest that PM was the better hurdler, and I don’t dispute that....but it is not that much of a superiority, and one I think is rendered largely irrelevant anyway, given the way Footpad has gone over fences.
I have maximum respect for PM, but Footpad is a transformed animal over fences, imo, and he would comfortably be the banker of the meeting for me, if Apples Jade was sent anywhere other than the Mares Hurdle.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 3rd January 2018 at 1:44 AM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
My worry with Petit M apart from his injury is he was beaten through lack of stamina? speed? class? it doesn't really matter because what was evident is he was already on the map.
Footpad looked like a horse who wasn't quite there yet and has improved no end since.
I will say however if I had backed Footpad and PM turned up I'd be concerned as he has obvious ability
Formely Fist of Fury
Weren’t exactly the same assumptions being made with Brain Power being made prior to being truly tested in the Henry VIII? Everyone was waxing lyrical about his speed over the fences and how he was a completely different prospect over the larger obstacles. However as soon as he was truly tested the same limitations were exposed.
At this point you’re probably going to throw Death Duty in my face but I’d argue he is in no way a 2 mike horse and probably has now proven to be not as good as they were expecting him to be.
My argument is not that PM is definitely a superior animal, just that he’s value at the prices considering what we know. I’d also say Footpad is poor value over 2 months out from the race and likely to face 2 high quality opponents (Sceau Royal) on the day.
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Aren’t you guilty of making a similar assumption about PM and SR (that they are high quality), based on the same amount of evidence that was available about Brain Power i.e. a sole chase start?
No matter. With novice-chasers, we rarely find out how good they really are/sort-out the pecking-order, until they have met each other at the Spring Festivals, and there is always therefore a certain amount of conjecture involved, when trying to determine which is best going into those Festivals. It’s not an exact science.
I appreciate you are looking at PM from a value perspective, and to be honest, I wouldn’t put you off at the current price. But you don’t need to question what Footpad has achieved, in order to justify your bet. The form of his two novice-chases is there for all to see, and whilst I would personally be disinclined to go in at 15/8, I certainly wouldn’t want to lay that price either. Anyone who has taken a positive view on Footpad is entitled to be perfectly happy with their position, imo.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Sceau Royal has beaten just about every potential Arkle contender this side of the water. Footpad has beaten a decent animal who was running over an inadequate trip and Brelade who has been similarly spanked in two outings since. So no, I don’t think I’m making the same assumption with him. As for PM, I’m relying mainly on his hurdles form where he is a grade 1 winner in open company. Admittedly that doesn’t always work out.
I’ll also admit that searching for value in an Arkle market usually amounts to ignoring the bleeding obvious and being the poorer for it. I’ll happily jump aboard the hype train if Footpad lives up to it in March but from a punting perspective I can back PM each way 3 places 1/4 odds and still walk away with more profit than taking 15/8 even if PM ends up having a front row seat of Footpads arse.
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No worries.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Yes you are correct BoS. My mistake. It still makes a good bet in my eyes as I believe the win part of the bet is very much alive.
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Beef or Salmon (3rd January 2018)
He's 10/1 with 365, 1/4 odds so if one were that way inclined they could lay off the win part of the bet - there's bits and pieces around at 12.5.
Footpad is no bigger than 15/8 so the 2.5/1 place odds, less the haircut you'd be losing on the win part by laying, less commission and you're probably looking at about the same price for Footpad to win and PM to finish first three. Depending on how much you want on.
But personally I'd prefer the win bet on Footpad as, despite who he's trained by, there appears less risk of him missing the race given the injury to PM. That said I reckon he'll be shades of odds against on the day unless connections decide against running Sceau Royal against him so I'll hold fire for now, having missed the nice prices.
Last edited by wilsonl; 3rd January 2018 at 1:58 PM.
Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."
Interesting on The Verdict on RUK today they described Yanworth as "a horse you cannot warm to !"
Very very apt ; they must be guests on here.
I share a similar view but based on his last 2 runs - I backed him at Newbury and then jumped ship to Willoughby at Cheltenham. C0ck
I'd still fancy Willoughby Court to reverse the form on better ground.
Will almost certainly will be with Willoughby, but he can't make mistakes like he did 3 or 4 out in the Dipper
Monalee reported to be "improving by the day" by Henry de Bromhead.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018