He is a real enigma, I'll give you that much.
I think the Graded wins at the minimum trip are throwing confusion. Form-wise, I think the Xmas Hurdle and Kingwell wins amount to very little. Beating TNO at Kempton doesn't mean a great deal, imo, as that horse has (and will) never win a Grade 1 hurdle at 2-miles, and the Ch'Tibello form at Wincanton, is not much cop either. For me, it's just plain obvious that he wants a trip, but appreciate that others will take an opposing view.
The only squeak I would give him is that the Arkle division does not look particularly strong at the moment, and the race might not take a whole lot of winning (when set in a historical perspective). But even that wouldn't make him a genuine 2-miler.