The Arkle is a lot tougher for 5yos now they don't get the 5lb allowance.
The older I get the better I was.
Not that this is likely to happen but someone's not keeping their eye on the ball at Bet 365. They are NRNB and have Footpad 6/1 for the JLT. The other two firms are quite rightly evens.
Can't see any reason why Footpad can't leave SC at it and sit in behind him. I know he led against PM lto, but those were the tactics needed to win that race. Time before that he sat in 3rd most the way round. He doesn't have to lead imo.
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Come on, DH, we're talking Willie here! He will always answer a question honestly with the truth as he sees it at the time but that truth can change at any time until declaration day depending on what he sees on the gallops.
Kemboy is entered in all 3 of the main novice chases and the target, at the moment, is most likely the JLT but in 3 weeks time....? I'm told it's unlikely that he'll be entered in the handicaps but he does have an entry for the Irish National so you can read into that whatever you like and your guess will be absolutely as good as mine.
The older I get the better I was.
Moving the RSA chat on Presenting Percy, Black Corton etc.over on the Gold Cup Thread back to this Novice chase thread.
As per above quote I mentioned Black Corton back in October - mainly as he'd won twice on C&D at Chelt, was already rated 150+ and would like the better ground. Even then I agreed that it was unlikely he'd be a true RSA contender.
As it stands I only took 25/1 in an E/W Lucky 15 (Footpad 5/1, Apple's Shakira 4/1 and Min 10/1 Ryanair being the other 3 - A pity as looks like Min in the wrong race now).
As Triggers mentions on the other thread, it's hard to knock Black Corton - He just keeps winning and has clearly improved as the season has progressed.
He's had a lot of runs though and I'd imagine most here will still rubbish his chance to actually win the RSA. The 8/1 at the moment is probably fair considering what he has done.
Thought it was worth reprising this astute and insightful piece of analysis from yours truly, from back in October:
"I would oppose Black Corton in just about every conceivable circumstance from here on in. He is probably a stone the wrong side of handy for winning two-bit races whilst having a fitness advantage."
It takes skill to get it this wrong. Envy me.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Do you think he can win the RSA?
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Honest answer is no, I don't.
I think it's between Monalee and Presenting Percy. I just think the Irish novice form is generally stronger than the UK novice form, and that Fountains Windfall would probably have exposed Black Corton's limitations (for want of a better word), had he stood-up at Kempton on Boxing Day.
A bit of me thinks BC has been beating-up some not very great novices, but equally, I don't think I'd be looking to place-lay him in a hurry either. He has track form, and the pair I've mentioned would need to be operating at the top of their game, to see him despatched.
Last edited by Grasshopper; 19th February 2018 at 3:57 PM.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
I’d have Presenting Percy as my lay of the meeting.
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I'm not a presenting Percy fan.
I do like Monalee but they finished in a bit of a blanket the last day. Id have preferred him to be a bit more comprehensive
Last edited by granger; 19th February 2018 at 4:14 PM.
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
Percy hasn't won a graded chase. His rating is based almost entirely on his handicap win and the placed horses in that race haven't franked the form in any way.
The older I get the better I was.