Page 98 of 117 FirstFirst ... 488893949596979899100101102103108 ... LastLast
Results 1,941 to 1,960 of 2332

Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1941
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Chester 2.55 - Arcanada 25/1 (4pl Sky) - not my main bet in the race and definitely a lot better on the AW but he's now on a winnable mark on turf. If he breaks as sharply as he did last week at Newbury his draw won’t be a problem but he might just be there to make the pace for Sha La La La Lee. He’s a much better animal on the all-weather but his best turf form gives him the winning of this race and his claimer has a good strike rate for trainers who use him selectively. This is his first ride for Dascombe and he might get to make his own pace after going too fast last week.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (25th May 2019)

  3. #1942
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Goodwood 2.30 - Sporting Chance 22/1 6pl (Hills, gen 25/1) - I’m drawn to the top-weight Sporting Chance at a nice price for the shrewd Simon Crisford. It’s possible something like the Britannia, which he won last year with the impressive Ostilio, might be the aim but this horse ran in the 2000 Guineas (150/1, well beaten) and still holds an engagement in the SJP. I’m happy to take a punt each-way despite its wide draw. As far as I can see it’s Crisford’s first runner in the race. This is my only bet in the race.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (25th May 2019)

  5. #1943
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Haydock 2.50 - Spirit Warning 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but I'm a fan of Andrew Balding and I can't see him running this in such a valuable race if it wasn't highly regarded. Will be easy to spot in the gloriously famous Mill Reef colours. I hope it's also got a noseband!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (25th May 2019)

  7. #1944
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Haydock 4.00 - Caspian Prince ew 20/1 w/o Battaash - The outright price is 40/1, which is an insult to a horse of his ability. The chances are the £100k handicap at Musselburgh in a fortnight is the target as he won it off 106 last year before failing very narrowly to defy 114 in two further €100k handicaps at the Curragh, for which he went up to 118, and a drop of a few pounds would probably give him a winning mark at Edinburgh. But early last year he was only a half-length off Kachy at levels and he won a G2 at the Curragh the year before.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (25th May 2019)

  9. #1945
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    York 1.50 - My Reward 100/1 5pl (Bf/PP) - My Reward is maybe better known as a stayer but three of his top four RPRs were gained at around this trip - the highest at 12f less than a year ago - so maybe a proper pace will give him a much better chance than his longs odds would suggest. He refused to go into the stalls last time but I don't think that's normal for him. I think he's worth a pop. He's top-rated with me and RPRs.
    Not 100s today - not even a qualifier for the thread today - but will carry some sickness insurance.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 25th May 2019 at 2:13 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #1946
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
    If you look at the result of the earl of Sexton stakes at newmarket then your circus couture looks to have a decent chance in the royal hunt cup.
    3rd at 100/1 last year off 106 and after its last run has been dropped to 97 and I've took a bit of the 40s with bet365..

  11. #1947
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    If you look at the result of the earl of Sexton stakes at newmarket then your circus couture looks to have a decent chance in the royal hunt cup.
    3rd at 100/1 last year off 106 and after its last run has been dropped to 97 and I've took a bit of the 40s with bet365..
    Sshhhhhhhhh.....
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (26th May 2019)

  13. #1948
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Epsom Dash - Harome 25/1 - I think I might have put this up earlier in the thread this season but now that I've done the figures I couldn't see me not backing it so went in this evening. He might end up having problems with Hathiq and Duke Of Firenze but they might be better prices on Saturday morning, whereas Harome might be a bit shorter. On my figures he's well up to winning a normal renewal but with the other two there it might not be a normal one. Still, Hathiq might bounce and maybe DOF isn't quite as good as he once was.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (31st May 2019)

  15. #1949
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Derby - Humanitarian 100/1 - I'm not suggesting this will win but I took it ew this evening. I'll probably check what kind of place-only price is going on Saturday morning. Gosden tends not to tilt at windmills, even with his outsiders, so I would be very surprised if such big odds were still available towards the off. The much-vaunted Private Secretary was rerouted away from this race yet he was down to about 14/1 based on the hype. If Humanitarian is deemed the better candidate I want to be involved at 100s...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #1950
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    7,311
    Thanks
    814
    Thanked 1,033 Times in 875 Posts
    Line Of Duty - Derby. 50/1 B365 Cracking 2yo culminating in a Breeder's Cup win.
    Haven't a clue what happened in the Dante (went off 2nd fav to TDH) but trainer tries cheekpieces in an effort to sort him out.
    Purely speculative punt, but a nice price.

  17. The Following User Says Thank You to reet hard For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (31st May 2019)

  18. #1951
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Line Of Duty - Derby. 50/1 B365 Cracking 2yo culminating in a Breeder's Cup win.
    Haven't a clue what happened in the Dante (went off 2nd fav to TDH) but trainer tries cheekpieces in an effort to sort him out.
    Purely speculative punt, but a nice price.
    Yes, he's another I might have a pop at, based on the same thinking, reet.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #1952
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Oaks - Tarnawa 33/1 (25/1, 4 pl) - plenty to do on the book but my figures say it's a substandard renewal. That's not to say a superstar won't emerge and with Coolmore there's no real way of knowing which one 'the lads' like the best. However, Weld is not in the habit of sending no-hopers for this race and this filly carries the colours of the Aga Khan who will be keen to have his colours to the fore here.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (31st May 2019), simmo (31st May 2019)

  21. #1953
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    peach tree ..oaks 33/1

  22. #1954
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I've had another look at the Derby and really can't make a strong enough case to favour any one of the principals over the other. I noticed a Makhtoum animal chasing home Broome so maybe Madhmoun will be very dangerous, assuming he's much better, but I have reservations about his stamina. In the same race, I thought Sovereign wasn't given much of a hard time in third and is as likely to improve for the step up in trip as anything else. Sometimes these Coolmore rags seriously outrun their odds so I've taken a small interest in him. It's a sad day when the only bets I can find in the race are longshots (Humanitarian, Line Of Duty and Sovereign) just for the sake of an interest. So, to add to Humanitarian:

    Sovereign 100/1
    Line Of Duty 33/1
    (following reet in)
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. #1955
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Epsom Dash - Harome 25/1 - I think I might have put this up earlier in the thread this season but now that I've done the figures I couldn't see me not backing it so went in this evening. He might end up having problems with Hathiq and Duke Of Firenze but they might be better prices on Saturday morning, whereas Harome might be a bit shorter. On my figures he's well up to winning a normal renewal but with the other two there it might not be a normal one. Still, Hathiq might bounce and maybe DOF isn't quite as good as he once was.
    Harome is down to 16/1 tops so I'm happy enough with that bet. I did plan to spread some dough thinly across a few of the likelier candidates but they've gone pretty short (Hathiq, Duke Of Firenze) to make it worthwhile.

    Instead, I've taken Just Glamorous 20/1, now 20lbs lower than at the start of last season and showed some of his old speed on his first run for his new trainer last month at downhill Goodwood.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (1st June 2019)

  25. #1956
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    [B]Boom the groom 40/1 I know hes got a bad draw and doesnt win very often but he has run some decent races here and with his riders claim runs off its lowest mark ever.
    With his claim he runs off 83 (7-11) 2 yrs ago he was 107 (9-7)he finished 8th behind just that lord,dark shot and The Duke but is 12lb better off with them today.
    I've also took 14/1 10 places.

    But what a tough race to call.

  26. #1957
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Epsom Dash - Harome 25/1 - I think I might have put this up earlier in the thread this season but now that I've done the figures I couldn't see me not backing it so went in this evening. He might end up having problems with Hathiq and Duke Of Firenze but they might be better prices on Saturday morning, whereas Harome might be a bit shorter. On my figures he's well up to winning a normal renewal but with the other two there it might not be a normal one. Still, Hathiq might bounce and maybe DOF isn't quite as good as he once was.
    I want to see that race again. I lost track of Harome early on due to the camera work and only in the replay noticed it came from virtually last a furlong out to finish strongly into sixth. Caspian Prince remains the focus of my attention for the big sprint at Musselburgh, which I think is next Saturday.

    Edit - I've just noticed, there is no Saturday meeting at Musselburgh for a while so I wonder what's happened to the £100k sprint handicap there. It was the week after the Derby last year and was won by Caspian Prince. I don't see a meeting for around that date in the two previous years so maybe last year was a one-off.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st June 2019 at 4:10 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  27. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (1st June 2019)

  28. #1958
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,074
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    539
    I need to watch it again and again.i think boom the groom finished in the first ten.
    That musselburgh race should be a cracker DO.
    My two alert horses ran on well today.
    Eah by gum and Open wide.

  29. #1959
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I think BTG was in the bunch behind the minor placings too.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  30. #1960
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    3,410
    Thanks
    600
    Thanked 581 Times in 486 Posts
    BTG 8th just ahead of Caspian Prince


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •