The Long Shot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

Kempton 2.05 Knockmaole Boy 40/1 - looks overpriced 10lbs lower than his hurdle mark and a solid run l/t/o - wouldn't be a surprise if he ran well.

My kind of thinking, chef. Followed you in.

[Desert Orchid]

Needless to say I wasn't best pleased to see Croco Bay do what he did

Sorry, DH.

[Marb]

I feel for you, DH.

[Marb]

Some decent ew bets in this.
POTTERS CORNER 20/1 is my main bet,but needs a clear round,something he seems to find hard.
FINAL NUDGE 40/1 is surely too big.
REGAL FLOW 40/1 won last year and is only 2lb higher but hasnt shown anything this time.

Potters Corner thank you very much. I hope you got my Private message as well.

[swedish chef]

Some decent ew bets in this.
POTTERS CORNER 20/1 is my main bet,but needs a clear round,something he seems to find hard.
FINAL NUDGE 40/1 is surely too big.
REGAL FLOW 40/1 won last year and is only 2lb higher but hasnt shown anything this time.

[simmo]

Splendid stuff once more from this thread.

[Desert Orchid]

Some decent ew bets in this.
POTTERS CORNER 20/1 is my main bet,but needs a clear round,something he seems to find hard.
FINAL NUDGE 40/1 is surely too big.
REGAL FLOW 40/1 won last year and is only 2lb higher but hasnt shown anything this time.

As simmo says, another great result for the thread and, of course, yourself, Outsider. Brilliant stuff. My main bet was on Ms Parfois and the only thing I was worried about from some way out was the weight PC was getting and whether it would tell late in the race but knowing you were on it and that some of the guys on here would have followed you in was a comfort.

Well done, again.

I'll say something about Prime Venture in a moment.

[Desert Orchid]

Yes, I'm on Prime Venture too (got 22/1, blue, so presume it had been longer).

In the same race, I've also taken some beer money on Jetstream Jack 130/1 boosted (5pl - Hills will go 7 pl but only 66/1) - probably a better chance of winning at Crufts but he ran A Toi Phil to seven lengths in the G2 Florida Pearl Punchestown Novice Chase back in the day and ran well in a Grade B €50k handicap chase off 140 (approx 146 over here). Gordon Elliot got rid of him lst year and Ollie Murphy chased him after just two awful runs. Maybe the quieter surroundings of Sophie Leech’s place will spark some enthusiasm and off 128 with highly-touted Brace making the 9-7 he might think he’s running loose.

I can't think of many horses trained by Evan Williams that I've backed this season but I backed two today and wasn't happy with either given the rides they got.

I have a history on here about whingeing about the way Paul Moloney used to nearly always try to win from the back, only very rarely employing different tactics. For me the rides State Of Play got cost him at least one Grand National.

It hadn't really occurred to decide not to back a Williams horse since Moloney retired but I did think Moloney was riding to instructions.

Adam Wedge won on De Rasher Counter for Emma Lavelle, coming from just off the front and I was encouraged for both Bold Plan and Prime Venture. Then both end up ridden - by Wedge - from back and wide. In deep ground.

As it turns out, and at the risk of aftertiming (but those who know me best know otherwise) I made more from backing Poker Play than I would have from Bold Plan so at least I'm not talking through my pocket. But the anorak in me would rather have seen BP win as it was a win-only bet.

I just can't get my head round why someone so long-established in the game would send out nearly every horse he has to be ridden from the back. You can get away with it in small fields because you're not giving away as much ground but in big fields in deep ground you're sentencing your horse to defeat.

I'm not suggesting it cost PV the race but it cost him the chance to be involved in the finish.

Jetstream Jack tried to come from further back but given his profile I was just happy that he jumped off and stayed in the race for a while. I then started to get mildly excited when he gradually started picking off the other tail-enders an at one point he must have been no more than about ten lengths off the pace but he stopped to noting late on. It was a big improvement and maybe Sophie Leech will get him back to something like his best in due course.

[Outsider]

Thanks lads.made my day(and week) had a bit at 29 on betfair and 33s in bet365 extra place market (1st/2nd)

I cant get my head round evan William's either.its not often I get it right with him.not a trainer I trust.

[viking]

Well done Outsider. Just had to be Jonathan Davies’ horse with Wales winning the Grand Slam. Some day for the bloke


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[swedish chef]

I can't think of many horses trained by Evan Williams that I've backed this season but I backed two today and wasn't happy with either given the rides they got.

I have a history on here about whingeing about the way Paul Moloney used to nearly always try to win from the back, only very rarely employing different tactics. For me the rides State Of Play got cost him at least one Grand National.

It hadn't really occurred to decide not to back a Williams horse since Moloney retired but I did think Moloney was riding to instructions.

Adam Wedge won on De Rasher Counter for Emma Lavelle, coming from just off the front and I was encouraged for both Bold Plan and Prime Venture. Then both end up ridden - by Wedge - from back and wide. In deep ground.

As it turns out, and at the risk of aftertiming (but those who know me best know otherwise) I made more from backing Poker Play than I would have from Bold Plan so at least I'm not talking through my pocket. But the anorak in me would rather have seen BP win as it was a win-only bet.

I just can't get my head round why someone so long-established in the game would send out nearly every horse he has to be ridden from the back. You can get away with it in small fields because you're not giving away as much ground but in big fields in deep ground you're sentencing your horse to defeat.

I'm not suggesting it cost PV the race but it cost him the chance to be involved in the finish.

Jetstream Jack tried to come from further back but given his profile I was just happy that he jumped off and stayed in the race for a while. I then started to get mildly excited when he gradually started picking off the other tail-enders an at one point he must have been no more than about ten lengths off the pace but he stopped to noting late on. It was a big improvement and maybe Sophie Leech will get him back to something like his best in due course.

I don't have a problem with them being ridden from the back but if you do that why the **** run wide as well - go the shortest way up the inside until you make your move. Bold Plan ran so much further than any other horse and is probably still well h'capped.

[swedish chef]

Had a small e/way tomorrow Wexford 4.00 Bay Of Freedom 28/1

http://www.cheltenhamdream.com/blog-diary/

[swedish chef]

Limerick 5.25 Simple Steps 25/1 small e/way - 3rd in this race last year but has a 7lb claimer on board - hasn't contested a chase since this race last year.

[Simpson Jersey]

Morning fellas,
Was at Warwick a few weeks ago with my daughter just for a day out and didn't know anything about the runners as i've lost touch with the jumpers over recent years, anyway we each had a little EW bet on each race just for the fun of it, in one of the races my daughter picked Red Admirable as she thought it sounded like Red Admiral and she likes butterflies!
Anyway i watched this old horse all the way round, pretty easy to spot as it was last over the 1st 2 miles with its joung jockey motionless, very gradually it started picking them off 1 by 1 creeping,creeping until turning into the staight was about 8th, girl still motionless, ran on into 5th about 2 out and i thought she has a chance of a place here, but over the last couldn't find any more finished in 5th.
Well that race has really worker out very well, the winner Uno Mas had won previous 3 and close 2nd since from an 8lb higher mark, the 2nd Goodnight Charlie won nto from 6lb higher, the 3rd Stonebridge Legend has won 2 chases since last one from 6lb higher mark, and the 6th Motts Cross won nto.
Pretty impressive form i'd say, also note that this horse broke a blood vessel which i think must have happened over the last 2 hurdles and but for that i'm sure would have finished 3rd or 4th.
Ridden by Lily Pinchin that day, today reunited with cheltenham winning jockey Kielan Woods who won on this horse twice last season inc from todays mark at Taunton over 3m and again over this course over 2m4fs from 95, so horse obviously not short of pace.
Anyway currently 25/1 hope this long winded write up is worth it!

[Simpson Jersey]

Forgot to add that both My Turgeon 7/2 and Pray for a Rainbow 9/1 in todays race were both well behind in that Warwick race. My Turgeon came under a ride on the far side, was fairly close up before weakening before the straight, never noticed the other horse at all but both were a lot shorter in the betting then as well.

[tiggers1972]

Nice run there Simpson, 3rd

[Simpson Jersey]

Thanks tiggers, disapointed that it weakened from 2 out but held on for 3rd which should give the early risers a nice profit, traded under 4 on the win market so hopefully people saved their win stake.

[Desert Orchid]

Cheers, SJ, good ew shout.

[Outsider]

Well done,nice place.

[Desert Orchid]

With apologies in case anyone else has already mentioned this on the thread...

I've just taken 25/1 ew 5pl bog/nrnb Pairofbrowneyes for the Grand National.

It will be officially 9lbs well in on the day and I reckon once people latch on to that it will come in to 10s or less, regardless of how else its chances might shape up.

If it doesn't run, no harm done.