The Long Shot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

Don 3.15 - Monbeg River ew 25/1 - The price suggests his chance isn't obvious but he's up near the top of my ratings with a few at single-figure prices. He could be still improving, is a good jumper and his record appears to suggest he goes well fresh.

Did everything I could have asked for bar win.

[Danny]

D.O that's an excellent effort and I think time will tell that you've bumped into a very, very good one. I usually try and take a negative view of impressive winners whenever possible and try not to over react to performances before I've had chance too dig into them a bit but that's twice this season I've just thought wow ! ( First time was Champ. So I'm either going soft in my old age or I've seen two future champions.

[Danny]

Long time lurker but first time poster here. Hello all

John Constable is one I’m following as I can’t simply have it that it’s as poor as it’s recent running implies. I hope it doesn’t win today but surely must win some race at Chepstow or Ffos Las when backed to do so. This horse was fancied to win the Cesarewitch a few years ago!

Welcome on board Nick glad you've come out from the shadows too add some contribution. I thought JC was being laid out for something when I saw him running down the track earlier in the season but looking at how his mark has plummeted pretty soon he won't even be able to get in a decent race. I'm just of the opinion the horse is shot...either that or they are aiming at something like the imperial and county double I'm 99.9% certain it's the former though.

[viking]

I've had to back up this bet with an each-way on Terrefort (50/1 NRNB) in the race. I think they really fancied this one for the Hennessy off 158 so they must rate it at least 170 which, to me, puts him in the same ball-park as Native River. If he goes and beats Frodon in this trial on Saturday he'll shorten up a good bit and if he ends up not running I'll get my money back. I'm happy to play.

Most of the way round I was thinking this one was only out for a spin around and wasn’t seriously trying Given far too much to do IMO but perhaps he just needed the run after his injury (although NJH has said they never quite found out for sure what the problem was)


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[Desert Orchid]

Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

I think the Caspian race was a bit special so I've gone very high with it. If I'm right - and maybe it's a big if - I think he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he does stay. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.

I have to say I really expected Frodon to win a lot more easily and fully expected Nicholls to abandon any hopes of the Gold Cup. However, I see it's now the plan and Frodon has halved in price in many places. I'll hold on to the bet for now rather than lay it off.

Watching the race over again, especially the latter stages, I woner if Frodon was idling after the last and started responding to the challenge of Elegant Escape just approaching the line.

I imagine Bryony Frost must have thought the distance wasn't an issue.

[Desert Orchid]

I've just checked what Frost and Nicholls said after the race. Reading between the lines, it sounds like they eased off him after his last win and were keeping a bit back with him with the festival in mind. That wold explain why he did't win as easily as I'd hoped.

It was also interesting that Nicholls said there isn't much between him and Clan Des Obeaux.

The dream is still on...

[Danny]

D.O that's an excellent effort and I think time will tell that you've bumped into a very, very good one. I usually try and take a negative view of impressive winners whenever possible and try not to over react to performances before I've had chance too dig into them a bit but that's twice this season I've just thought wow ! ( First time was Champ. So I'm either going soft in my old age or I've seen two future champions.

Actually I've had a complete and utter brain fart there I thought that was the 2nd in the Cleeve and of course it was in the big chase at Donny which I hadn't even watched yet today just in case anyone was confused as to why I thought Go Conquer was the next big thing It has been one of those days

[Desert Orchid]

I'm a fan of Go Conquer but thought the handicapper had him for now. I really never saw that performance coming. A lot of the other form in behind makes a lot of sense so NT-D has *ahem* found some amount of improvement from *ahem* 'somewhere'...

[Marb]

Leopardstown 2:00 Mitchouka 40/1 Each Way (general price)

It's not often you see a Michael O Leary owned horse at this big a price, but it's each way value nevertheless.
Mitchouka didn't do much wrong over hurdles last season. He finished second behind the 147 rated Saglawy at Fairyhouse, with the third that day (Saldier) rated 152 now. On that form 137 is not a bad mark, for only his second start in handicap hurdle company, but you obviously have to forget his recent chase form.

[Danny]

I know some of you guys were following Ivanovich Gorbatov last term thinking he was being laid out for the festival, he probably was and the ground went against him I'd have thought. He put in a couple of decent efforts in the summer which suggests he still retains some ability. They've messed about with the tack the last couple of times he's run leaving off the tt last time and the blinkers before that. Both back on today and that was the combination he wore for his better efforts in the summer. I don't really feel like he's being laid out for anything including this today, more it feels like desperate efforts on their parts to revitalise him a bit. If he were to drop much lower than his current 134 he wouldn't be getting in at the Festival ...possibly might sneak in at the bottom of the boys race ? I can't quite recall off the top of my head what sort of mark gets you in each year but even that would be tight I'd have thought. 50/1 today available to 6 places with Paddy Power. Any thoughts fellas as to whether there is still anything in the tank or is the horse is just plainly finished ?

Also thought the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown looks a really hot affair today and plenty of horses i like in there but way too competitive to be getting involved with. Could be a race to follow the form out of as it looks like it could be a really strong race with plenty of good future chasers and a couple of Coral Cup candidates. Plenty in with solid chances and plenty far less risky than Full Glass but I do wonder if now those pesky British fences are out of the way whether he might be a bit of value at around 25/1 generally.

[Desert Orchid]

This will probably fuel the fire of those who think I'm bonkers with some of my selections ("Some?!" I hear you shriek...) and this one is pretty left-field again.

Sandown 2.25 - Mulcahys Hill 20/1 - I do think Vinndication will win but I'm not the type to get involved with 6/4 shots. I couldn't back Lostintranslation or Defi Du Seuil to beat the favourite either. But Mulcahys Hill at the price strikes me as potentially over-priced. I'm working on my long-held notion that hurdlers tend to improve 10lbs when going over fences - in time - and with two runs under his belt this may the time for that improvement to kick in. MH went up to 147 for being touched off by a 147-rated Poetic Rhythm in the Challow last season with Kilbricken Storm (147) over 20 lengths back in third. The winner has done nothing since and neither has MH to be honest but KS is now rated 152 over fences. Like I say, left-field and all that but it's my idea of a bet for the sake of an interest in an otherwise uninspiring event.

[Marb]

I know some of you guys were following Ivanovich Gorbatov last term thinking he was being laid out for the festival, he probably was and the ground went against him I'd have thought. He put in a couple of decent efforts in the summer which suggests he still retains some ability. They've messed about with the tack the last couple of times he's run leaving off the tt last time and the blinkers before that. Both back on today and that was the combination he wore for his better efforts in the summer. I don't really feel like he's being laid out for anything including this today, more it feels like desperate efforts on their parts to revitalise him a bit. If he were to drop much lower than his current 134 he wouldn't be getting in at the Festival ...possibly might sneak in at the bottom of the boys race ? I can't quite recall off the top of my head what sort of mark gets you in each year but even that would be tight I'd have thought. 50/1 today available to 6 places with Paddy Power. Any thoughts fellas as to whether there is still anything in the tank or is the horse is just plainly finished ?

Also thought the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown looks a really hot affair today and plenty of horses i like in there but way too competitive to be getting involved with. Could be a race to follow the form out of as it looks like it could be a really strong race with plenty of good future chasers and a couple of Coral Cup candidates. Plenty in with solid chances and plenty far less risky than Full Glass but I do wonder if now those pesky British fences are out of the way whether he might be a bit of value at around 25/1 generally.

I put Ivanovich Gorbatov up earlier in the season but he disappointed.
I should stick him in a separate each way lucky 15 to the one with Mitchouka in, so that I'll have two running for me in the race.

[chrome]

Don't wanna sound glass half empty but FULL GLASS o
Is N/R

[Desert Orchid]

Followed you in Ivan G, Danny, ew at 40/1. Might need to start going back up the ratings for the County although he'll probably be 6lbs higher here than his Irish mark.

[Outsider]

I'm in the ivanovich gorbatov camp as well.if not today then the county.
13lb lower today thanlast years race.

Jezski 40/1 is tempting.beaten 10L by wonder leish and is 21lb better off today with 7lb claimer.

[Desert Orchid]

Great run for a 40/1 shot and at one point I thought he was going to pull it off. Hopefully he's on the way back. Jezki ran a blinder too.

[Danny]

Jesus wept Outsider hows your luck ? 2 40/1's 2nd and 3rd both nailed in the dying strides unlucky mate.

[Outsider]

2nd and 3rd returned at 16s.thats a joke.

[Desert Orchid]

Betfair Hdle Sat - West To The Bridge 50/1 - see the race thread.

[Marb]

Punchestown 4:20 Dinnie's Vinnie (Each Way)

I know the favourite Fitzhenry has a big pull at the weights with him, but Dinnie's Vinnie beat him nine lengths so surely shouldn't be 33/1.
With a win strike rate of around 30 percent (7/25), even at 11 years of age, I still reckon he can out-run his odds.

I'd be over the moon if he placed at that price.