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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1541
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    I've had to stick with Daklondike over at Haydock. Loved seeing his victory last time, and I can't abandon him just yet.
    Long shot???????
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    Kelpies Myth ran well for a long way but didn't stay. Danny was right about his jumping.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 19th January 2019 at 3:37 PM.
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    Yeah a disappointing day, id agree KM just didn't get the trip. I was really dissapointed with Red infantry i dont think the visor is agreeing with him a return to pieces for him Is needed I think. As for San Benedeto god knows what went wrong with that project really poor run but I don't really buy the non trier being saved for Cheltenham stuff.
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    Never put in the race yesterday Danny and may get another 2 or 3lbs respite from the handicapper now. Look at how he’s been ridden when he’s won or run well.

    Cyrname was definitely a job for Nicholls yesterday, so why run San Benedeto as well if Cyrname was a good thing?

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm wondering what it is about Ascot that it regularly throws up impressive-looking wide-margin handicap winners?

    We had Cyrname yesterday and a couple of years back Tenor Nivernais destroyed a high class field seemingly without coming off the bit plus a few others whose names escape me for now.

    I know it happens on other tracks (there was one at Newbury last season or the end of the previous season) but it seems to happen more often at Ascot. You never seem to see it at Sandown, for example.
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    In the Thyestes this afternoon I've taken 33/1 Valseur Lido. He's probably in terminal decline but he's a G1 winner who was raised to 169 for that win (probably over-rated him in the first place) but now races off 146. Off 158 in the National four runs ago, he was still well there and going well turning for home only to run out of gas. He's maybe being trained for another go at Aintree but if they accept he didn't stay this looks a viable alternative.

    The usual wealth warnings apply.
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    I really want to put Don Poli in here, but I have absolutely no viable argument he'll run well.

    Hoping they send him the nash route. The run out he had in the Bechers is as bad as one would think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In the Thyestes this afternoon I've taken 33/1 Valseur Lido. He's probably in terminal decline but he's a G1 winner who was raised to 169 for that win (probably over-rated him in the first place) but now races off 146. Off 158 in the National four runs ago, he was still well there and going well turning for home only to run out of gas. He's maybe being trained for another go at Aintree but if they accept he didn't stay this looks a viable alternative.

    The usual wealth warnings apply.
    Just prepping for something after all. Bowled along nicely up top and not asked a question in the final third. Probably won't do his National mark any harm, assuming that's still on the cards for him. Mall Dini another who looked to have something else down the pipeline in mind.
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    First up for tomorrow.

    Chl 12.40 - Pagero ew 33/1 - This is a bit left-field, even for me . JP has two in the race with Geraghty on Fine Brunello who could be competitive if he's improved from his first run since joining Joseph O'Brien just before Christmas. JP's other runner is Pagero who ended up in Listed company on the Flat in France and was only bought by JP last week and sent to Jonjo and makes his hurdling debut here. The sire is Nathaniel so I imagine a strongly-run race might suit him well and I just wonder if Geraghty on the other is a decoy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

    I think the Caspian race was a bit special so I've gone very high with it. If I'm right - and maybe it's a big if - I think he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he does stay. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.
    I've had to back up this bet with an each-way on Terrefort (50/1 NRNB) in the race. I think they really fancied this one for the Hennessy off 158 so they must rate it at least 170 which, to me, puts him in the same ball-park as Native River. If he goes and beats Frodon in this trial on Saturday he'll shorten up a good bit and if he ends up not running I'll get my money back. I'm happy to play.
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    Next up for tomorrow:

    Don 3.15 - Monbeg River ew 25/1 - The price suggests his chance isn't obvious but he's up near the top of my ratings with a few at single-figure prices. He could be still improving, is a good jumper and his record appears to suggest he goes well fresh.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 26th January 2019 at 9:23 AM. Reason: Talking shite in the original post.
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    Apologies I haven't got time to do much of a write up but in the Cleeve hurdle tomorrow I've taken a pop at the forecast or rather the reverse forecast with Bet365 on Wholestone and Black Op it pays 40ish one way and 45's the other atm so I make that a 20/1 ish return on your dough hence a qualifier for the thread.

    Black Op certainly went ok in the Ballymore last year looked last time out over fences as if he'll relish both the step up to 3 mile's and the return to smaller obstacles and you'd think he's got to go close here and he's my idea of the winner.

    Although he won't be too popular with our illustrious long shot leader D.O, Wholestone rarely runs a bad race around here he just got out manned in this last year by Agrapart in really heavy ground was a lot better than his effort looked in the World Hurdle in March he could probably do with the light rain forecast being a little less on the light side but hopefully it'll be just soft enough without being as extreme as it was last year. I'm a big fan of Midnight shadow but he was very keen last time and I didn't think he was going to see out the 2 and a half the way he was travelling but he did looks a real decent type but if he doesn't settle better here though I don't think he''l see out the 3 mile. I'm unconvinced about Paisley Park as of yet and think this is another step up and he's plenty short enough all things considered. Aux Pitts soins won well last time but it was only a handicap off 141 talented on his day I suppose but another stepping up against better horses he's plenty short enough for a horse who's had his problems and has struggled to put two performances together back to back. Skelton will have done wonders if he can get him to win this. Sam Spinner looked gone last time. The danger to spoiling the day is probably the old boy UKWIMH buts lets just hope he's a gallant 3rd eh ?

    Good luck lads.
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  17. #1553
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    First up for tomorrow.

    Chl 12.40 - Pagero ew 33/1 - This is a bit left-field, even for me . JP has two in the race with Geraghty on Fine Brunello who could be competitive if he's improved from his first run since joining Joseph O'Brien just before Christmas. JP's other runner is Pagero who ended up in Listed company on the Flat in France and was only bought by JP last week and sent to Jonjo and makes his hurdling debut here. The sire is Nathaniel so I imagine a strongly-run race might suit him well and I just wonder if Geraghty on the other is a decoy.
    Pagero is very weak this morning so maybe they're just giving him a jog round at the back. I've written the bet off.

    Watch for his name appearing in the Non-Triers' thread
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 26th January 2019 at 9:40 AM.
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    4.10 Cheltenham - Demopolis 20/1 - This was actually to be my main bet in the race last night but he became very weak in the betting and I decided to leave it until this morning. I've relegated him to small saver status but I think I mentioned him on the non-triers' thread after his last run so this is as much about sickness insurance as anything else. He was dropped 6lbs for that race so will need to start going back up to have any chance of getting into any of the festival handicaps (he isn't in the Betfair).
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  20. #1555
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    Pagero is now out to 80/1. Don't know whether it's a or a but it has shortened a little on the exchange to 90-odd. Hope springs and all that.

    (Hope Springs - now there's a name for a fictional wummin detective.)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    4.10 Cheltenham - Demopolis 20/1 - This was actually to be my main bet in the race last night but he became very weak in the betting and I decided to leave it until this morning. I've relegated him to small saver status but I think I mentioned him on the non-triers' thread after his last run so this is as much about sickness insurance as anything else. He was dropped 6lbs for that race so will need to start going back up to have any chance of getting into any of the festival handicaps (he isn't in the Betfair).
    I've just remembered John Constable is in this race. He's at the stage where he makes the word 'canine' complimentary but I've taken some sickness insurance at 50/1. Win only as he'll either win in a canter or blow out completely.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've just remembered John Constable is in this race. He's at the stage where he makes the word 'canine' complimentary but I've taken some sickness insurance at 50/1. Win only as he'll either win in a canter or blow out completely.
    Long time lurker but first time poster here. Hello all

    John Constable is one I’m following as I can’t simply have it that it’s as poor as it’s recent running implies. I hope it doesn’t win today but surely must win some race at Chepstow or Ffos Las when backed to do so. This horse was fancied to win the Cesarewitch a few years ago!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Pagero is now out to 80/1. Don't know whether it's a or a but it has shortened a little on the exchange to 90-odd.
    I took another nibble at 80/1 just in case and it halved from 66s to 33s in the run-up to the off.

    The RTV people were quite complimentary about the promise it showed and I'd agree with that. It was really just a training gallop for it but despite stookieing nearly every hurdle it moved up threateningly at one point in the back straight before the jockey remembered his instructions.
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    That Cleeve was the first proper stayers hurdle race I've seen for a while proper race, proper test and although I wasn't convinced by Paisley park beforehand I am now. Cracking performance and I'm sure that's a star of the future. Wow !

    Bet down but no complaints.
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    I was all over Midnight Shadow. Paisley Park is a proper horse though. Still doesn't beat Supasundae or Penhill for me though.

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