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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1521
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    Always appreciate a long shot from the Chef....will have a sporting bet on.

  2. #1522
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good luck Chef. The jockey puts me off to be honest.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  3. #1523
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Blue across the board and 16s tops now.

    Looks promising.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #1524
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just one again for me today.

    Warwick 3.35 - Ritual Of Senses 40/1 generally - This one jumped out at me last night and I've no idea why. I checked through the form and can't find any reason why it would hit me like that. Maybe the name cropped up when I was checking out something else but somewhere along the line this has been on my mind. Perhaps it was entered in recent weeks and didn't run. Anyroads...

    I have reasons for opposing most of this field I can’t bring myself to fancy anything else so a small interest on Ritual Of Senses as the rank outsider appeals. With his highly-rated claimer taking the ride on his first run for over two years he might need to get up the weights to qualify for the final and who knows how many of the others are actually interested in winning. Maybe not the soundest of reasons, I admit.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  6. #1525
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    Gracious George 340L class 6
    A poor race and a poor horse who is 9 yrs of age and probably regressing.
    Are you still reading.
    A "friend" on another forum thought this was a non Trier a couple of runs ago and asked me to take a look.i thought it was just one paced.
    His best form is over a mile but I thought he now needs 10f which he gets today.
    He has now dropped to 45 but has to run off 46 today but has a capable 7lb claimer on.
    I thought 16/1 last night was a bit stingy but he has now drifted to 50/1.
    I've had a bit of that,80/1 bet 365 extra place 2 horse market and 20/1 in the 7 place market.
    I will probably look a fool again tonight,but I cant resist.
    The last time it ran at lingfield it finished 4th off 55.
    Last time at kempton it was 8th not beaten far and the 5th has won and finished 2nd off 59.
    7th that day (level weight) was woggle who ran well for 3rd last Saturday.off 50.
    So those are my reasons.
    Last edited by Outsider; 12th January 2019 at 1:25 PM.

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  8. #1526
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    How bad was that.i think it needs 3 mile.

  9. #1527
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Warwick 3.35 - Ritual Of Senses 40/1 generally -
    Travelled tremendously well for a long way. Maybe just needed it.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  11. #1528
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    Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

    I think the Caspian race was a bit special so I've gone very high with it. If I'm right - and maybe it's a big if - I think he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he does stay. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.
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  13. #1529
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    Ascot 3.00 San Benedeto 20/1 ew (Hills) - there's no way this should be 20/1. A wee bit like Frodon, he remains for some reason under the radar but on his day he is very smart. I actually rate him better than a handicapper. He isn't my main bet in the race but he is a ridiculous price if he's trying.
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  15. #1530
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    I'd just logged in to say I thought you could of given San Benedeto another try at this trip so glad to see I'm not the only one. Ran a very solid figure here from a 2lb higher mark,2 runs back, at 2 mile (Is that just too many twos) and before that a really solid effort behind Gods Own. First try at a longer trip in the Peterborough they removed the pieces presumably to help him settle but his jumping went to pieces and it was just a really poor effort. Pieces back on today and Lorcan Williams deployed so I think he's certainly worth a rattle D.O, good luck.

    Thought Kelpies Myth might outrun its price in the previous race and he's 20/1 currently and may go bigger so I suppose he's a qualifier I'd struggle to see him winning though as he usually fluffs a flight or two but worth a sheckel or two each way just in case. Personally I'd rather play him in combis with BallyMoy and Bettergetalong who I thought were the better of the market leaders. I'd certainly be happy to take on the favourite in the race as he's plenty short enough with enough questions over his form and suitability to conditions. I'd also had a good look at Seddon because he's unexposed and I actually like a couple of the ones who've beaten him lately but although completely unsure about where I'd have him atm ratings wise after watching his replays I'm going to err on the side of caution and say his current 137 is about right, I'm happy to take him on as well.


    I like the logic with the NRNB on Frodon but can't agree with the Caspian Caviar form but I suppose time will tell. Talking of these sort of bets Des I'd had as much as I could get on NRNB with Champ for the Champion Hurdle. They've refunded the bet already presumably because he wasn't entered at the latest stage ? The whole point was he was never entered at any stage even when they laid the bet. My thoughts were he might do something a bit special in between now and then and get supplemented. Not sure where I'd stand but if he did get supplemented at some stage, I can see me having a very interesting conversation with Bet365 or at least Mother will have to...thats actually quite a scenario trying to argue an ante-post bet ruling via Mom who is the only woman I know who gets herself in a flap cooking cheese on toast


    Best of luck lads just as a note of caution I've only had the briefest of glances as I woke up a bit early this morning. Thought Red Infantry should go close in the Peter Marsh at only 8's though not a qualifier for the thread obviously.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  17. #1531
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    I looked at Kelpies Danny but in the end I stuck with Man of Plenty 25/1 with Connor Brace claiming 7lb.

  18. #1532
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    I suspect Nicholls knows San Benedeto is on a winning mark. I also suspect that he might want to see if he can get another couple of pounds off before the Festival in March though. The question is if he does nothing today is whether he’s being aimed at the Plate or The Grand Annual.

  19. #1533
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Thought Kelpies Myth might outrun its price in the previous race and he's 20/1 currently and may go bigger so I suppose he's a qualifier I'd struggle to see him winning though as he usually fluffs a flight or two but worth a sheckel or two each way just in case.
    Yes, I have KM top rated overall and have a saver on him although I went with Hills' slightly shorter odds for 5-places.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #1534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I suspect Nicholls knows San Benedeto is on a winning mark. I also suspect that he might want to see if he can get another couple of pounds off before the Festival in March though. The question is if he does nothing today is whether he’s being aimed at the Plate or The Grand Annual.
    I'm not sure Cheltenham is his track otherwise why has he only run twice there (unseated mid-race once and well behind in the other).

    My gut says he's going for the big 2.5m race at Newbury in which Nicholls has such a good record, which is one of the reasons I only have a saver on him but 20/1 today is just too big.
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  21. #1535
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    I’m not sure about that Maurice. Both times he ran at Cheltenham his defeats were due to mistakes rather than the track. Also he seems to have performed well enough at stiff tracks elsewhere.

    You could well be right, but I’ve been watching Nicholls closely this season and I think he’s lining himself up for a proper assault on the Festival. San Benedeto is one of a number of horses I’ve been watching.

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  23. #1536
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    ... but I’ve been watching Nicholls closely this season and I think he’s lining himself up for a proper assault on the Festival. San Benedeto is one of a number of horses I’ve been watching.
    I probably haven't been watching quite as closely as you, Maruco, but I've had the same gut feeling too. Same with a few of Tizzard's.

    But clearly we are of the same opinion that SB has the winning of a race of this nature (or better).
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 19th January 2019 at 9:51 AM.
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  24. #1537
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    I suspect Nicholls knows San Benedeto is on a winning mark. I also suspect that he might want to see if he can get another couple of pounds off before the Festival in March though. The question is if he does nothing today is whether he’s being aimed at the Plate or The Grand Annual.
    I was also thinking grand annual.

  25. #1538
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    Yeah I wrote Kellie's Myth out for my each way Trixie last night. Delighted to see others fancy it each way too.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th January 2019 at 10:49 AM.

  26. #1539
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    I've had to stick with Daklondike over at Haydock. Loved seeing his victory last time, and I can't abandon him just yet.

  27. #1540
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    I always back Man of Plenty. One of my favourites these days.

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