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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1441
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've also got a small ew saver on John Constable 33/1 in the Haydock 1.50. Call it sickness insurance as the horse owes me serious money but there can be no denying he is very well handicapped on his best form. I just worry that he simply will not be asked a serious question, as is so often the case.
    Travelled fairly well at the back till the one in front clattered one bringing him down.

  2. #1442
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yes, I came on to suggest him myself (but not my main bet in the race). B365 have now matched the others' 22/1.
    Fuckin hell. So typical of my luck.
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  4. #1443
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Travelled fairly well at the back till the one in front clattered one bringing him down.
    I'd long given up on him before that. Looked out for another run around.
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  5. #1444
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    Quote Originally Posted by frontrunner View Post
    Shades Of Midnight @ 20/1 1/4 odds first 3 (Bet365) is a decent bet in a 8 runner race running off a winning mark. Downside is a NR
    Unlucky mate.he deserved better.

  6. #1445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Fuckin hell. So typical of my luck.
    I feel for you.

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    Desert Orchid (24th November 2018)

  8. #1446
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Copied and pasted from the Ladbrokes Trophy thread:

    I've taken another nibble at my top-rated Flying Angel at 33/1.

    I think that race at Ascot last week was hotter than I'd anticipated and the handicapper appears to agree, hiking the winner 9lbs and Flying Angel 4lbs so he'll be that much well in on Saturday, getting to race off 142, compared with the 157 he went up to for beating Cloudy Dream (then 153, subsequently 159) and Top Notch (158, 164) in the big Aintree novices chase in 2017.

    Flying Angel had a dismal time of it last season but last week was a big step forward from his seasonal debut behind Frodon. With Go Conquer very weak in the market it looks like he'll be the stable's main hope.

    Assuming he runs, of course...
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th November 2018 at 1:21 PM.
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  10. #1447
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Jeez... a year already...

    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Newbury 3.00 Beer Goggles 50/1

    Thistlecrack is a very short-priced favourite for this with the weights so much in his favour but I just wonder if a lack of fitness combined with the return to hurdles as well as the fact he’s been injured might leave him vulnerable. I can’t imagine this is that serious a target for him so will risk opposing him. Unowhatimeanharry is the obvious one given he has already made a successful return to action but I’m going to take a wild punt on Beer Goggles. If my figure is right for him there is absolutely no way he should be as long as 66/1 (last night) even though they’re only paying two places. Betfair last night had an option of three places at reduced odds of 22/1 so I’ve taken that too.
    I'd forgotten about it until I noticed it in the list of past winners!
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  11. #1448
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    Will you be putting up Flying Angel here?

  12. #1449
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    See #1446 above
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  14. #1450
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    Excuse as I'm pushed for time and I haven't checked the latest prices but I thought Allyson Monterg was the best of the outsiders in the Ladbroke think about 25/1, Also a Newbury Voodoo doll, Baby King, Le musse all around the same price are worth a second look.

    Big chief Benny is a massive price at 40/1 to overcome a long layoff if your into that sort of thing he's pretty decent if he's anywhere near ready.

    Nowt Major on any of them myself but worth the once over.

    Apolgies le musse has seen plenty of money and is no longer a qualifier for the thread.
    Last edited by Danny; 1st December 2018 at 10:29 AM.
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  15. #1451
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Unusually for me, I don't have any more longshots today.

    I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing
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    Fairyhouse 3:10 - Ivanovich Gorbatov each way. It does feel like a long time since Ivanovich Gorbatov won the Triumph Hurdle. It's been over two years since he won it at Cheltenham, on good ground. He gets the same ground today. Rightly or wrongly, he's rank outsider of the McManus horses, but he is young enough to return to form, still only a 6yo, if good enough. I fancy he will return to form this season, on approximately a stone lower mark, than he was after he won The Triumph. It is a long shot, but 40/1 on his favoured good ground, is worth trying in the each way market. A bit of market support wouldn't do his chance any harm.
    Last edited by Marb; 2nd December 2018 at 10:27 AM.

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    Bapaume for me today in the Hattons Grace.

  19. #1454
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Fairyhouse 1.35 Cubomania 66/1 - on overall form should probably be in the first six or seven in the market, at which point the general price is less than 10/1, so even in the 12/1-16/1 range he could be a bit of value. I've also taken 14/1 place-only. Coffee money, mind...

    (Note, though, that in the market he's weaker than a used teabag.)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd December 2018 at 12:01 PM.
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  20. #1455
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Fairyhouse 2.10 Kilkishen 33/1 - would probably be less than half this price if he hadn't run last time when his jumping let him down. Hopefully a couple of months off will see him over that lapse. Another bad round though and 66/1 wouldn't be value.
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  21. #1456
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Fairyhouse 2.40 Wicklow Brave 50/1 - on his best form he's as good as anything else in the field. Whether he'll be arsed to show it is another matter but he runs to form more often than once in 51 runs...
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  22. #1457
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Fairyhouse 3:10 - Ivanovich Gorbatov each way. It does feel like a long time since Ivanovich Gorbatov won the Triumph Hurdle. It's been over two years since he won it at Cheltenham, on good ground. He gets the same ground today. Rightly or wrongly, he's rank outsider of the McManus horses, but he is young enough to return to form, still only a 6yo, if good enough. I fancy he will return to form this season, on approximately a stone lower mark, than he was after he won The Triumph. It is a long shot, but 40/1 on his favoured good ground, is worth trying in the each way market. A bit of market support wouldn't do his chance any harm.
    Certainly well handicapped. I'm going to be contrary and go with stablemate Plinth at 28/1 ew to 6 places (Sky).
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  24. #1458
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    Throwing another JP runner into the mix here with Blazer at 20/1 (6 places)


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  26. #1459
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    This is a huge stab in the dark but Clutching at Straws caught my eye (at a very low level) last time out and having sickness insurance on him today in the first at Fairyhouse. 66/1 with bookies. EW or place only.
    Last edited by HawkWing; 2nd December 2018 at 1:16 PM.

  27. #1460
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    Fairyhouse 3.10 Cut The Mustard 40/1 - I've always felt this horse is a decent mare in her own right. Sacrificed at the festival to make the running for the same owners Laurina. Was travelling well at the Fairyhouse festival when she fell although for some strange reason Sporting life has her pulling up. She looked over the top at the Punchestown festival.I have a gut feeling she is better than her current mark in a handicap for the first time, although the owners do have another horse in the race ridden by Ruby so I will have a cover bet on that one.
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