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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1281
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    Yep the Ayr GC he's a few declared, Major Jumbo, who I thought would have run today fits nicely as a tough battler barging through type. Prob go for a Goldie runner tho - quiet in between then popping up nicely in big handicaps

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  2. #1282
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tiny Clanger View Post
    ... quiet in between then popping up nicely in big handicaps
    Nicely euphemised
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  3. #1283
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    DUKE OF FIRENZE 150D 33/1 ran a good race in the dash at epsom and is now 13lb lower? If it shows its old sparkle it must have a chance.i remember putting him up for a big race once and it drifted out to 66/1 and ran a cracker for 5th.

    16/1 9 places today for insurance.fingers crossed.

  4. #1284
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'll be disappointed if I don't get my head in front with these longshots today.
    Looks like I'm heading for a disappointing day...

    Lancelot Du Lac was clearly on the wrong side and Winston gave up at halfway. If he turns up at Ayr I'll probably get suck(er)ed in again.

    Abel Handy may be on the way back but still has a way to go.

    Nelson ran better than a 100/1 shot, not too far off the frame.

    Medalla De Oro probably did too much out in front and might be of interest next time in a lesser race.

    I won't see the remaining races so I'll need to check the various replay websites later tonight or tomorrow.
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  5. #1285
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    5.15 Ffos Las

    The Bear Can Fly 40s (Sportsbook and PP), 33s general

    Down to 10 runners but still a nice each way angle here. Ground coming right at Ffos Las and should hopefully be soft by race time. PLY taking 7 off can only help.

  6. #1286
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    5.15 Ffos Las

    The Bear Can Fly 40s (Sportsbook and PP), 33s general

    Down to 10 runners but still a nice each way angle here. Ground coming right at Ffos Las and should hopefully be soft by race time. PLY taking 7 off can only help.
    Well the weather gods did their thing but someone forgot to tell the horse.

    Well backed into an SP of 9/1 but didn't get home. If that ground is what the filly needs then 1m looks a better option (being by Pastoral Pursuits).

  7. #1287
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    3.10 Brighton - Towelrads Boy - 25s general

    I don't think this is without a chance today. Was held up at Kempton last time and presumably didn't stay the trip but ran at Leicester in June over 6 like he needed further.

    I'm hoping over this 7f they can go a bit quick up front and this one can pick up the pieces as the come back up the stiff finish.

  8. #1288
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    GL Dan.

    Brighton 4.10 King Crimson 33/1 - probably three times his true odds because he's run badly here the last couple of times he's visited but he does have winning form on the track.
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  9. #1289
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    3.10 Brighton - Towelrads Boy - 25s general

    I don't think this is without a chance today. Was held up at Kempton last time and presumably didn't stay the trip but ran at Leicester in June over 6 like he needed further.

    I'm hoping over this 7f they can go a bit quick up front and this one can pick up the pieces as the come back up the stiff finish.
    Held up. Keen. Headway 2 out. Stayed on well final furlong without reaching leaders.

    Marvellous.

  10. #1290
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    5.00 Hexham - Sendiym - 50/1 - PP and Sportsbook. 33s and 28s elsewhere

    I'll chance this old boy 3rd run back off a break. Done his winning over slightly shorter but 50s feels like value in this field. 3rd run back from a break so hopefully no fitness worries.

  11. #1291
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    5.10 Redcar - Siyahamba - 20s

    This tends to get behind early but if he can finish like he did at Beverley on his penultimate run he looks a good candidate for the frame at least.

  12. #1292
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    Struggling to pick my nose here with these longshots at the moment.

    I'll try one more today.

    8:30 Kempton- Hereyouare- 20/1 BetVictor

    This son of Thewayyouare has each way chances in this field as far as I'm concerned. Ran ok last time at Chepstow but likely to be better suited to the polytrack.

    With only 5 career starts and now down to a rating of 56 I assume there's a reason Morris is hanging back for the last, when he could have taken a dart and got on the road home.

    You look around the field, Duration looks the obvious one with the form just being franked by Dubai Frame. The rest however seem a much of a muchness.

  13. #1293
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Today's longshots are all in the Ayr Gold Cup.

    Tommy Taylor 20/1 - this is my main bet in the race. He's been on my radar for it since midsummer, possibly the spring, and he's 10lbs lower than then. Connections won it with Brando when went on to be competitive at G1 level. He might be the next one.

    Naadirr 40/1 - runs for the same trainer and is harder to figure. Handicapped to just about win on old form and might not just be a social runner for enthusiastic connections.

    Brian The Snail 40/1 - carries sickness insurance to go with the wealth-health warning as I've been backing him. Seriously disappointing again this season but he still turns up in all the big ones for Godolphin. Could he be a year-long plot?

    Kimberella 33/1 - lobbed in on his very best form but probably badly drawn.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 22nd September 2018 at 10:48 AM.
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  15. #1294
    Senior Member fonz's Avatar
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    SALT WHISTLE BAY- AYR 2.00
    Been in the tracker since swatting aside Rip Orff off level weights with ease in early May on soft ground, subsequent runs on quick ground predictably not as good but the striking nature of that win in May really stood out so the 20/1 with B365 is worth a go.

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  17. #1295
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    From my preview of the Silver Cambs:

    Three-year-olds have a good record in this race, probably due to being steep curve horses, and two recent such winners have gone on to much better things. Addeybb is touching G1 class and GM Hopkins has been a regular under big weights in the big handicaps in the last couple of seasons. For that reason as well as because I have him as a +p horse, Jazeel is on the short-list.

    Four year-olds have a poor record with only four managing a place in the last ten seasons. I’m not a believer in stats and no doubt a 4yo will win this one day if not this year but it does make you wonder. 5yos fare a little better with two winners but from many more runners. The other two winners in the last ten years have been older than five, probably down to being sleepers dropping back down the weights, with the other two age groups caught somewhere in the handicapper’s grip. However, there are two four-year-olds who might not be. Keyser Soze threatened to land a big prize earlier this season and has been given a quiet time of it lately while bottom-weight Little Jo is definitely on a curve that might be quite steep. He’s officially 6lbs well in so it’s no surprise to see him at the head of the betting. Both have to be on the short-list too.

    The others for consideration are the two sleepers at the top of the figures on their old form, My Target and Swift Emperor, and Nicholas T. My Target has come down no fewer than 24lbs in the last 18 months and has only run twice on turf in that time, being tailed off (100/1) in last year’s Hunt Cup and a decent runner-up last time. He’s actually been dropped a pound for finishing second that day so the handicapper clearly doesn’t rate the race. I think he’s worth fun money at decent odds.

    The handicapper hasn’t yet split Swift Emperor’s ratings between turf and all-weather despite the horse looking better on synthetics, certainly this season, but his ratings have been picking up lately on turf and it may be that he is just starting to come into form this autumn. His overall profile suggests he’s maybe a spring & autumn type. Again, I won’t miss a little fun money at long odds.

    Jim Goldie brought Karaka Jack down from up here in the central belt to win this race in 2015 and he is more than capable of pulling off a job. At the longest odds of the lot and a +p type Nicholas T gets the vote as the main bet, each-way of course.

    I’m happy to let Little Jo win unbacked, likewise Jazeel and Keyser Soze.

    Bets

    5.15 ½ pt ew Nicholas T 33/1; ¼ pt win My Target 25/1; ¼ pt win Swift Emperor 25/1
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th September 2018 at 8:39 AM.
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  19. #1296
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Now you know why I tend to back several in these big races. Jazeel started off last night as my main bet in the race. By midnight I had changed my mind more often than a wean at the pik'n'mix. I hope to fvck somebody backed it.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th September 2018 at 5:30 PM.
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  20. #1297
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    I backed it on the basis of your write up. ��

  21. #1298
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Chuffed for you, simmo! I can honestly take some solace from that.

    Hope you weren't alone.

    The money isn't that important to me. I get more of a kick out of being on the right track.

    Unless, of course, I get a right return!!
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  22. #1299
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Market Rasen 2.50 Waltz Darling 33/1 could be very well handicapped if anything left in the tank? Seemed to love the course and going last year
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  24. #1300
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Market Rasen 2.50 Waltz Darling 33/1 could be very well handicapped if anything left in the tank? Seemed to love the course and going last year
    Good to have you back posting on the thread, Chef!
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