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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1241
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Last but not least, in the Ebor:

    Montaly 25/1
    Time To Study 33/1


    Montaly is my main bet in the race (with Teodoro the main saver at 14/1).

    From my preview:

    Confidence in these York handicaps is severely dented this week with the ratings not really working out. I find it strange that they should have done so well at Ascot and Goodwood yet so badly at this meeting. It’s making me wonder if I really should bother. Teodoro deserves to be favourite but he dropped back in trip last time to 10f to break the track record at Haydock so stepping back up another half-mile might bring its own problems. I was originally very sceptical about the value of that Haydock race but I’ve double-checked some of the other form lines and, while it’s still possible that it was a dodgy result, the time and those other form lines suggest it’s more likely that the form is unusually good. If my reading of the form is correct, only the trip can beat Teodoro. I’ve backed Montaly a couple of times this season and not been impressed with how it has run but when it turns up here you have to wonder if this is a season-long plan. Similar remarks could apply to Time To Study and Fun Mac while Nakeeta has a fair enough chance of repeating last year’s win for similar reasons. I got a tracker alert for Blakeney Point because I’ve suspected he hasn’t been asked serious questions so far this season. Stratum impressed last time having needed to win to make the cut for this but his resultant rise will also compromise his chance; nevertheless he deserves to be close to favouritism and a win would be no surprise but he’s unlikely to be gifted the easy lead he got last time. I said some time back that Godolphin had a handful of qualifiers for the race so I’m intrigued that none takes up the engagement in such a valuable race while Buick ends up on a Mullins horse. Further intrigue is provided by Berry’s presence on Saunter. He rode my selection Great Hall in Saunter’s race last week and had the beating of him on form but Great Hall ended up tailed off with Berry reporting that the horse was never travelling. I suspect Saunter was gifted that race to ensure his qualification for this.

    As usual, it’s a hugely competitive race and I could back half of them and not be confident of winning. However, I’m going to allow the figures to dictate the bets and will nominate Montaly as the main bet with savers on Teodoro, Time To Study, Nakeeta and Blakeney Point.
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  3. #1242
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    First up today:

    York 1.50 Morando 22/1 - I have him joint-second top on my ratings and he's only 1lb behnd RPRs' second-top so should he really be such a big price? He's lightly raced so might be fresher than some of these, the stable is in blinding form and the worthy favourite Lord Glitters might just not fancy fast ground too much.
    Non-runner. One stake saved...
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  4. #1243
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Last but not least, in the Ebor:

    Montaly 25/1
    Time To Study 33/1


    Montaly is my main bet in the race (with Teodoro the main saver at 14/1).

    From my preview:

    Confidence in these York handicaps is severely dented this week with the ratings not really working out. I find it strange that they should have done so well at Ascot and Goodwood yet so badly at this meeting. It’s making me wonder if I really should bother. Teodoro deserves to be favourite but he dropped back in trip last time to 10f to break the track record at Haydock so stepping back up another half-mile might bring its own problems. I was originally very sceptical about the value of that Haydock race but I’ve double-checked some of the other form lines and, while it’s still possible that it was a dodgy result, the time and those other form lines suggest it’s more likely that the form is unusually good. If my reading of the form is correct, only the trip can beat Teodoro. I’ve backed Montaly a couple of times this season and not been impressed with how it has run but when it turns up here you have to wonder if this is a season-long plan. Similar remarks could apply to Time To Study and Fun Mac while Nakeeta has a fair enough chance of repeating last year’s win for similar reasons. I got a tracker alert for Blakeney Point because I’ve suspected he hasn’t been asked serious questions so far this season. Stratum impressed last time having needed to win to make the cut for this but his resultant rise will also compromise his chance; nevertheless he deserves to be close to favouritism and a win would be no surprise but he’s unlikely to be gifted the easy lead he got last time. I said some time back that Godolphin had a handful of qualifiers for the race so I’m intrigued that none takes up the engagement in such a valuable race while Buick ends up on a Mullins horse. Further intrigue is provided by Berry’s presence on Saunter. He rode my selection Great Hall in Saunter’s race last week and had the beating of him on form but Great Hall ended up tailed off with Berry reporting that the horse was never travelling. I suspect Saunter was gifted that race to ensure his qualification for this.

    As usual, it’s a hugely competitive race and I could back half of them and not be confident of winning. However, I’m going to allow the figures to dictate the bets and will nominate Montaly as the main bet with savers on Teodoro, Time To Study, Nakeeta and Blakeney Point.
    Enjoyed the read. "Only the trip can beat Teodoro". Agreed!

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  6. #1244
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    I've found a qualifier at Chelmsford tomorrow. Samphire Coast, (2:30), has shown excellent form at this track, with three wins from last five starts here. So I rate him as good each way value at 25/1. The favourite may be hard to beat, but my fancy looks overpriced.
    Last edited by Marb; 29th August 2018 at 8:22 PM.

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  8. #1245
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    N/R

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    16.00 going to go for the complete outsider here with kodiac express. Kodiac never runs a bad race even if she is a long way behind the godolphin horse on ratings. 25/1 or better

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    I’ll throw up Shamonix in the last at 33/1 as well. On the pick of her form, she has a good shout.

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    Try again today. I’m gonna go with spirit of may in the first at sandown 25-1. Also Les Gar Gan at wolves later 28-1

  12. #1249
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I had a pop at the big race at Hamilton this evening hoping to come up with something in the 5/1 - 10/1 bracket (which is what I'm usually looking for) but ended up digging up another longshot.

    Ham 6.55 Framley Garth 25/1


    From my preview:

    I decided to take a look at this race because it’s fairly valuable for horses on this kind of mark. Most of these wouldn’t get a sniff at a decent Saturday pot. Caveats abound, not least that this is Hamilton and there’s every chance the race will have been decided in The Bay Horse last night. I hope the prize money on offer means otherwise. Eye Of The Storm has the most back class but jockey bookings put me off. Those most likely to prove better than the norm are Framley Garth, Sepal, Mukhayyam, Zabeel Star and Theglasgowwarrior. Joe Fanning takes over from the usual young girl on Framley Garth and I’m hoping he can bully some improvement out of the horse. Sepal’s reappearance will have teed her up nicely for this but I don’t imagine Gormley will have been the trainer’s first choice of jockey; that would have been his go-to-guy Joe Fanning (38%). Maybe I’m reading too much into that, though. For the saver, I like Theglasgowwarrior. I was prepared to back it in a much better race at York last week but he got a very negative ride, reminding me of Willie Carson who, on being questioned by the Hamilton stewards about a particularly unimpressive ride told them his instructions were to hold the horse up. When asked how long for, he replied, “Till Ayr next week!”
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    Sandown :2:25 Paul Cole's Rotherwick is of interest, having improved since being gelded, after disappointing seasons in 2015 & 2016. He pops up every now and then, so tomorrow could be one of his good days. I've definately seen worse 20/1 rank outsiders.
    Last edited by Marb; 31st August 2018 at 8:35 PM.

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  16. #1251
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    Theglasgowwarrior went well, DO.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Colin Phillips View Post
    Theglasgowwarrior went well, DO.
    Poor tactical ride all the same, Colin. I suspect it was a minor job that didn't come off. Framley Garth wasn't there to win as it turned out. Maybe it struggled with the track but it didn't look good to me. It was a bit further back than I like to see through the race and I thought the jockey passed up two or three clear opportunities to switch into a challenging position in the straight but he didn't make a serious move until the cause was lost.

    It was a great race for the spectators, though!
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    It's a pretty quiet betting day and I won't get to see much of it anyway. I haven't identified any longshots I can fancy on their own so I'm suggesting an each-way treble on:

    Arcanada (Chs 2.05, 14/1)
    Master Carpenter (San 2.25, 11/1) and
    Aquarium (Bev 3.55, 12/1)

    I've backed all three in singles and an ew treble. The place portion of the treble will pay better than 60/1 should things go my way.

    Just a bit of fun, though.
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  20. #1254
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    Not a good day so far.

    At least Aquarium has halved in price.

    I've also stuck a small ew on Zorion in the Irish Cambs. On jockey bookings it looks like Godolphin's first string, in which case 33/1 is far too big.
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  21. #1255
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    Fvck.

    Right now I'm really feeling like giving up for good. Three non-triers.

    No market confidence in Master Carpenter at all, gave up very easily after going well turning for home. Early market support for Arcanada was more promising but he ran exactly the same way, going well until giving up turning for home. Aquarium missed the break but the jockey complicated matters by keeping it on the rail when it was clear the one beside it was constantly bullying it. Then he went for a run through the field and failed several times before switching to make a token late effort.

    I don't mind losing. I mind not getting a run for my money.

    No doubt I'll change my mind but right now I don't want to see another race until the Hennessy.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 1st September 2018 at 4:14 PM.
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    I feel the same. Onwards and upwards.

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    18.15 brogans bay 66-1 4 places

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    Gone for Englishman in the 16.55 at 66-1 with saver on moon song.

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    Okay gone for 18.05 lambs lane 33/1 and 18.45 moon king 40/1. If I don’t get a place I promise i will never defile this thread again

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    Only two today, both in the same race.

    Asc 2.45 Belle Meade 33/1 & Tupi 40/1

    Belle Meade is one for which my figures are at odds with the likes of RPRs. However, she was rated 92 last year before her form tapered off. Last time out she made a sudden return to form off just 81 and she’s been put up 8lbs for it but she won by a very easy looking seven lengths. I wonder if the handicapper was tempted to go higher. Lines through the beaten horses suggest she’s worth more than the 8lbs rise. I’m not sure if her then rider Jason Watson could claim his full allowance here so that might explain why Nicky Mackay gets the ride. At a nice price, I’m happy to take a chance.

    Tupi is as much about sickness insurance as anything else since I've put him up more than once this season. He has disappointed time and again but was dropped to claiming company last time and did a bit better. He was claimed out of that race and I’m interested that Hughie Morrison opts for a race of this value for his debut for him. Tupi, remember, was rated 109 this time last season and was running very well off 106 in Meydan earlier this year. He could be thrown in off 93 if the change of environment rekindles his enthusiasm.
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