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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1201
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another qualifier today

    Gwd 2.25 Arch Villain 40/1 - fourth in the Ebor first time up last season off 7lbs higher and might need a penalty to get in this time. Has taken time to hit form this season and will need to do so soon if connections have any York aspirations for him.
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  2. #1202
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Final longshot for the Stewards' Cup:

    It's been mentioned already on the thread by wilsonl - Solar Flair 20/1 - the main saver now that he’s hit form again. The handicapper appears to have split his AW and Turf ratings and he went up to 102 on the all-weather for winning at Newcastle the time before last. The handicapper has ignored it for Turf purposes. This time last season he was rated 104 on both. Cox has never ridden for the trainer before but he’s clearly rated by no less an outfit than Godolphin for whom he is 5/13 (38%) this season.

    (Fwiw, my main bet in the race is Growl at 14/1.)
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Colin Phillips (4th August 2018), Outsider (4th August 2018)

  4. #1203
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Be interesting to see how laying these NOV favs today..first one 1.61 just got stuffed..winner 27.4 with about 9 races for Nov/maidens to go...Biggest certainty is a few more long shots will be winning

    g/l all
    Formely Fist of Fury

  5. #1204
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another qualifier today

    Gwd 2.25 Arch Villain 40/1 - fourth in the Ebor first time up last season off 7lbs higher and might need a penalty to get in this time. Has taken time to hit form this season and will need to do so soon if connections have any York aspirations for him.
    Missed third place by a nose but fortunately I got it four places. The downside is that the 25p R4, which Chapman had plenty to say about, will kick in. My main bet in the race was Walton Street so I deserved this wee bit of luck. If Walton Street had run as well as I'd backed him to AV wouldn't have got fourth place
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th August 2018 at 2:43 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I like reading other views especially when its a horse i havent looked at.ive had a look at this solar flair aand although hes probably is better on the a/w i have to say it looks to have an excellent chancein fact ive just took 25/1.
    Of course im only expecting him to be 2nd as ive done GIFTED MASTER a/p at 33/1
    Good luck.
    Well done!

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    Well done Outsider. That horse Gifted Master has now amassed over 500k in earnings. Definately a case of 'good horses win good races'!
    Last edited by Marb; 4th August 2018 at 3:56 PM.

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  9. #1207
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I knew I'd seen it mentioned somewhere. Well done Outsider!

    Pleased to see Solar Flair nab fourth as it also got me the place double with Arch Villain.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I like reading other views especially when its a horse i havent looked at.ive had a look at this solar flair aand although hes probably is better on the a/w i have to say it looks to have an excellent chancein fact ive just took 25/1.
    Of course im only expecting him to be 2nd as ive done GIFTED MASTER a/p at 33/1
    Good luck.
    What a shout that was...
    Last edited by Marb; 4th August 2018 at 3:55 PM.

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    You reinvesting some on Vale Of Kent mate?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    You reinvesting some on Vale Of Kent mate?
    I have backed it,but i think Rum Runner could make them all go but has drifted to 33s but his run 2 races ago won by his stablemate who has been sold to run in china? Escobar 2nd (unlucky yesterday)via serendipity 3rd masham star 4th and he was clear 2nd a furlong out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I knew I'd seen it mentioned somewhere. Well done Outsider!

    Pleased to see Solar Flair nab fourth as it also got me the place double with Arch Villain.
    Nice double DO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I like reading other views especially when its a horse i havent looked at.ive had a look at this solar flair aand although hes probably is better on the a/w i have to say it looks to have an excellent chancein fact ive just took 25/1.
    Of course im only expecting him to be 2nd as ive done GIFTED MASTER a/p at 33/1
    Good luck.
    Well done with solar flair wilson, i wouldnt have looked at it if it hadnt been for your write up.
    Good race for me with 1st,3rd and 4th.

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    Well done today, lads.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Fantastic shout Outsider
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  22. #1215
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Unusually for me, an ordinary midweek pop:

    Windsor 6.30 Dougan 33/1 - This one wasn't far off my radar the day Spring Loaded beat Poyle Vinnie. I got a tracker alert for another in this race but don't fancy it. Instead this one caught my eye. He's two pounds lower here than at Ascot so has better prospects than the 33s available with the two firms currently offering the price. Unfortunately both are restricting me to coffee money but the horse should probably be shorter than 10/1 if it can show its best form.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 5th August 2018 at 7:51 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Unusually for me, an ordinary midweek pop:

    Windsor 6.30 Dougan 33/1 - This one wasn't far off my radar the day Spring Loaded beat Poyle Vinnie. I got a tracker alert for another in this race but don't fancy it. Instead this one caught my eye. He's two pounds lower here than at Ascot so has better prospects than the 33s available with the two firms currently offering the price. Unfortunately both are restricting me to coffee money but the horse should probably be shorter than 10/1 if it can show its best form.
    I hadnt looked at windsor and i cant believe THE DOUG(wolves would be better)for the headline makers.is 33/1.
    Time for a bet methinks.

  24. #1217
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I managed to get the balance of my bet on at 28/1. I suppose if it goes and wins I'll never get another penny on with either Betfair or PP. Probably no big deal really, though, since I don't bet much with either.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Haven't been about much but thought I'd check in good to see the standards aren't slipping some excellent tipping fellas. Keep saying I hope to get my nose back in the form books at some point but other things just keep cropping up and I haven't been getting the time

    Keep up the good work lads.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  27. #1219
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Unusually for me, an ordinary midweek pop:

    Windsor 6.30 Dougan 33/1 - This one wasn't far off my radar the day Spring Loaded beat Poyle Vinnie. I got a tracker alert for another in this race but don't fancy it. Instead this one caught my eye. He's two pounds lower here than at Ascot so has better prospects than the 33s available with the two firms currently offering the price. Unfortunately both are restricting me to coffee money but the horse should probably be shorter than 10/1 if it can show its best form.
    Good run for our money DO.draw beat him.

  28. #1220
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Didn't get to see the race. Beaten 1/2 length, dh, neck in fifth. Clearly never a 33/1 shot.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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