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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Master Carpenter qualifies for the thread today. Good thing.

    Others of interest on a tough day by sheer dint of numbers:

    Asc 12.45 Poyle Vinnie 25/1

    Nwm 1.40 Shady McCoy 25/1 & Tupi 25/1

    Nwm 3.20 Petrus 25/1

    I'm really tight for time and can't explain but trust me they shouldn't be those prices. I'm not saying they will win, obviously. Even if they should be just 10/1 chance it's 1/10 they won't win. But they might give us a wee shudder along the way...
    PETRUS for us again.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just one today for me:

    Asc 4.45 Blue De Vega 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but Blue De Vega was the big fancy of the ITV mob for the Wokingham following his eyecatching run in the Dash, presumably backed up by stable information, and is 3lbs lower today than at Epsom. He is, very surprisingly, the outsider of this field and worth a stab even though he’s never actually won at shorter than seven furlongs. It may be they’re accepting he won’t make the cut now for next week even with a penalty and are merely prepping for the consolation race but I’ve found to my cost that sometimes you can overthink these things.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 27th July 2018 at 8:56 AM.
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  5. #1163
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    Nice one, DO.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Thanks DO!

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    Nice one DO.well done

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thanks, guys.

    Genuine mixed feelings about the day. The main bet in that race was Golden Steps which, like the winner, I opted for win only (16/1) but I also had both in trebles with Speedo Boy (6/1, w3/1) and Austrian School (2/1, L 6/4f)). The Johnston horse has beat me for a 440/1 treble which would have paid for the [second-hand] Jag I've got my eye on!
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    Missed this !! Argh !!

    Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

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    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    You seem to be lucky rather frequently. DO!

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Not anywhere near as lucky as I feel my work deserves, TS!!
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    East street revue skybet dash 25/1
    Via serendipity gigaset 20/1

    Good luck lads.

  14. #1171
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    So far just one for today:

    Asc 3.00 Brian The Snail 40/1 6pl - Again not my main bet in the race. He’s clearly impressing at home (while disappointing on the track) for Buick to be engaged in both the Wokingham and this so has to carry some sickness insurance. Godolphin, I imagine, would have had no shortage of prospects for this race so they must think he's an awful lot better than the formbook says.
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  15. #1172
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    By the way, Marble, I think you're mad not to be taking some form of sickness insurance about Mukalal at 33/1 today. If I thought my reasons for backing him last time were sound they should be just as sound for this race. I wouldn't let one bad run put me off, especially since he was backed almost into favouritism then.

    I won't be backing him myself as I didn't fancy him last time either but one bad run doesn't make him a bad horse.
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  16. #1173
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    East street revue skybet dash 25/1
    Via serendipity gigaset 20/1

    Good luck lads.
    Small profit on those two, Outsider. Not to be sniffed at.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Small profit on those two, Outsider. Not to be sniffed at.
    Cheers DO,profitabe day but i dont think east street revue was ever trying.3 months of sun and then the going changes.
    Fentiman and Kingscoat on muscika stopped riding inside the last furlong.all i needed was a 6th place.
    Has for the discussion on flaming spear,he caught my eye in mid race and had every chance,the stewards cup might be a good move.

  19. #1175
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Three for today so far:

    Gwd 1.50 Not So Sleepy 22/1 - Adam Kirby has actually won this the last three seasons and we know Hughie Morrison doesn’t send them to festival meetings unless he likes their chances so Not So Sleepy might well outrun his longish odds. He's among my top ratings for the race.

    Gwd 1.50 Thomas Cranmer 22/1 - Another who might be under the radar is Thomas Cranmer. Rated 93 this time last year when trained by Mark Johnston, connections got rid of him at the start of this season but Tina Jackson appears to be coaxing him back to form and has him improving several pounds from race to race lately. This might be as good as he is, ie she might just have got him back to his old level, but if he can improve another 7lbs, who knows what he might do here.

    Gwd 3.00 Karar 20/1 - It's a bit tenuous whether this qualifies as he's only 20s with one outfit (Marathon) and 25 on the exchange but he might drift again. This race is more like a glorified handicap with only 6lbs between them all on current ORs and 8lbs on RPRs. My gut says to leave the race alone but the two who might just be over-priced are Suedois (13/2) and Karar. The latter was supplemented for the race by the sponsors so I presume they didn’t pay all that money just to see their colours on show.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 31st July 2018 at 9:59 AM.
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  21. #1176
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Gwd 1.50 Not So Sleepy 22/1 - Adam Kirby has actually won this the last three seasons and we know Hughie Morrison doesn’t send them to festival meetings unless he likes their chances so Not So Sleepy might well outrun his longish odds. He's among my top ratings for the race.
    Desperately unlucky not to have been placed at least/worst. Never got daylight from over three out.
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  22. #1177
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    This race is more like a glorified handicap with only 6lbs between them all on current ORs and 8lbs on RPRs. My gut says to leave the race alone but the two who might just be over-priced are Suedois (13/2) and Karar.
    Glorified handicap indeed. I wonder if Tudhope felt he only had to catch Breton Rock and wasn't aware of the winner's late charge. Only a ba'hair in it at the line
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  23. #1178
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    I know this is aftertiming but I'm looking after a friends whippet that [like most whippets] tends to sneak into the bedroom and disappear under the duvet, so I had to have a last minute bet on Under the Covers at 25/1 [it's price then shot in] as I'd've kicked myself if it won!

  24. #1179
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    Nice one. You deserve it. You've put with more shite from me throughout the years than what a whippet does before a dog race .
    Last edited by Marb; 31st July 2018 at 7:27 PM.

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  26. #1180
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    Well tomorrow I will find out if my little anti post on Vale Of Kent for The golden Mile on Friday is doomed. At least we will see how good he is in the last race tomorrow.

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