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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1121
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    Northumberland Plate Cayirli 40/1 each way (see thread).

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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Cartmel 2.20 Trade Flow 80/1 may surprise if back to his French form after 3 years off.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Three for today:

    Nwc 1.30 Suegioo 20/1 - Officially best in here (up 5lbs in future) Suegioo remains lobbed in on his older form. He’s still 13lbs lower than at the start of last season and 18lbs lower than his career peak of the previous season. If he’s back in the mood again they might not see which way he goes. He has to be worth at least a saver.

    Nwc 2.05 Soldier In Action ew 6pl 40/1 - Without looking back through the thread I'm pretty sure I've put this one up already this season to no avail. He got a[nother] strange ride behind Amazing Red last time but has suggested more than once this season that the old ability is still there. He was off 110 in the Ebor last year and has won off 106, 5lbs higher than today.

    Nwc 2.05 Curbyourenthusiasm 28/1 - Curbyourenthusiasm has a similar profile to Soldier In Action and has been on the receiving end of some highly ineffective tactics but might have won the Queen’s Prize but for a typical show-off Spencer ride. He’s 9lbs lower than when only 8/1 for the 2016 Goodwood Cup (G1) and later gave Watersmeet 6lbs and a beating off 105. He’d have a serious chance on that form and has looked to have been campaigned with a specific target in mind. Whether it is this we shall see.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another I overlooked earlier:

    Nwc 1.30 Cosmelli ew 50/1 - Cosmelli ran well in the big race last season off 99 so this is a fair old drop in both grade and rating and he has to be a danger.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  7. #1125
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another I overlooked earlier:

    Nwc 1.30 Cosmelli ew 50/1 - Cosmelli ran well in the big race last season off 99 so this is a fair old drop in both grade and rating and he has to be a danger.
    Cracking shout.

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    Desert Orchid (30th June 2018)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another I overlooked earlier:

    Nwc 1.30 Cosmelli ew 50/1 - Cosmelli ran well in the big race last season off 99 so this is a fair old drop in both grade and rating and he has to be a danger.
    Boom baby.

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    Desert Orchid (30th June 2018)

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cheers, simmo. I was swearing at the end because my main bet was Euchen Glen and the jockey got it beat. Ridiculously over-confident. I have EG in multiples that I quite fancy. Compensation is ample though.
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    Nice one, DO.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Utt 4.20 Toviere 33/1 - I don't normally follow the jumps during the summer but this came via a tracker alert. When it won a novices' h'cap chase at Ascot in November I had a very fast time for it. The form hasn't been franked, though, so maybe it was just the least slow race on the day. It was then off for five months before running well off 8lbs higher before disappointing a couple of weeks later. Maybe it bounced. Anyway, it's come back down 4lbs and if my time rating for it was anywhere near accurate (maybe it wasn't) it shouldn't be a 33/1 shot. I'm happy to pay to find out.
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    2.40 Worcester
    Bassarabad just qualifies for this thread at 20/1 with Skybet paying 5 places. Gave himself too much to do last time when finishing 3rd beaten about 2 lengths having been 10 lengths adrift two out. The front two that day are now rated 121 and 123. This fella races off 117 today and has Dickie up who surely won’t allow him to race as lazily


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    That was a cracking shout at the weekend Des I'd had a long weekend away so missed most of the action. Feeling refreshed and ready to get my head back in the form books myself although I've strangely found myself getting sucked into the World cup this year having not watched a game of football since they sacked Mick Mcarthy from the Wolves.

    Hopefully be joining in again soon though.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Another I overlooked earlier:

    Nwc 1.30 Cosmelli ew 50/1 - Cosmelli ran well in the big race last season off 99 so this is a fair old drop in both grade and rating and he has to be a danger.
    Just seen this myself Great shout DO. I tend to switch off when the flat season starts. My bad.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  18. #1133
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Hat tip to outsider too, though, who mentioned it earlier than I did when it was 66/1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  20. #1134
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I was in a bit of a quandary about some of today's fare. I've shied away from putting a couple of qualifiers on here as, although I have backed them myself, they are among several I've backed in one race and I don't want to claim a possible big-price winner when they're only on the periphery of my financial commitment to the race.

    I came on earlier to put up Hawkbill when he was 20/1 but no sooner did I start the motions than it dipped under 20/1. I've also taken Cliffs Of Moher at 20/1 as he might just have been brought along with this race in mind. On his day he is as good as anything else in the field (as is Hawkbill).

    That looks like being all for today.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    As I'd sort of pointed too on the Eclipse thread Cliffs of Moher looked less than eager to get going again Des he looks a real candidate for blinkers or something to sharpen him up I can't understand for the life of me why they haven't tried them. The horse obviously has some ability and I get the feeling he's just not putting it all in. Any thoughts Mo ?
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  23. #1136
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    It's not the kind of thing I look for, Danny, to be honest. I'm happy to leave that to better readers of horses' demeanour. He might just be flattered by his previous best, not unlike my main bet yesterday Montaly in the stayers race. For all the world I couldn't see how Nearly Caught could beat him yet he hammered him. Maybe Montaly did too much chasing the pace. Maybe Cliffs Of Moher should have been a wee bit closer. Hopefully the sectionals will help.

    Yesterday was a bad day all round, between getting wiped out on the betting front, backing the wrong Johnston horses in the handicaps and the Turnips mashing the Swedes*.

    (*Steve M gets the credit for that one.)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th July 2018 at 8:20 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Got to do MASTER CARPENTER 25/1 corals 33s in the john smiths.
    Loves york and won this 3 yr ago and is down to a good mark.has been consistent all year.
    Would love some rain but has won on firmish.

  25. #1138
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I can't see him making the cut. I had a small bet on him on Saturday there as I felt he needed the win to pick up a penalty just to give him an outside chance of making the cut. He's absolutely lobbed in on his best form.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  26. #1139
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I can't see him making the cut. I had a small bet on him on Saturday there as I felt he needed the win to pick up a penalty just to give him an outside chance of making the cut. He's absolutely lobbed in on his best form.
    Money back if it dont get in.i think.i hope.

  27. #1140
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    True but they might take him out anyway. I thought about taking the risk but suspect he'll still be 25/1 if he makes it. I actually thought his run on Saturday was full of promise but the fact he was unplaced should help keep the price long.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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