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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1061
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    I've done pettochside and Verne castle in the dash. Both around 40s

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  3. #1062
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    Good calls, just a touch unlucky in the respect that the winner had such a trouble-free run.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  4. #1063
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nonannyimfine View Post
    I've done pettochside and Verne castle in the dash. Both around 40s
    Great runs from both, NNIF. Hope you took the extra places.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  5. #1064
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Kilbeggan 7.25 In Our Blood 40/1
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  6. #1065
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    The Long Shot Thread

    7.50 Stratford
    Strumble Head now 33/1 with Bet365 but no bigger than 16/1 elsewhere. Was tempted to have a dabble at 16s but 33s will do nicely

    Edit. Clearly a rick by Bet365 who now go 22s

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Last edited by viking; 8th June 2018 at 3:50 PM.

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    Goodwood 8.50 Berkshire Blue 25/1
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  9. #1067
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    I have a few today:

    Nwm 2.35 - Solar Flair ew 20/1 - I have him top-rated and he's jt-top on RPRs. Looks over-priced at 20/1 as I don't think the favourite Eastern Impact's chance is significantly, if at all, better.

    Nwm 3.40 - Soldier In Action ew 20/1 - needs to carry some sickness insurance now. He WILL win a race at some point; it’s just a matter of being on him when he does, and I’m sure the higher the value of the race the more likely it is that he’ll be trying. Mitchell is the only jockey with a 100% record for Johnston this season but he’s only had the one ride.

    Nwm 5.25 - Majeed ew 33/1 - (I dived in early at 22/1 ) Majeed was arguably unlucky not to win last year’s Wolferton off 100 but that may have bottomed him for the season, maybe for good. He was joint bottom weight that day so will need to go up the ratings to make the cut pretty much for any handicap this year. Jockey bookings suggest stablemate Nonios is preferred, though.

    Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  11. #1068
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I have a few today:

    Nwm 2.35 - Solar Flair ew 20/1 - I have him top-rated and he's jt-top on RPRs. Looks over-priced at 20/1 as I don't think the favourite Eastern Impact's chance is significantly, if at all, better.

    Nwm 3.40 - Soldier In Action ew 20/1 - needs to carry some sickness insurance now. He WILL win a race at some point; it’s just a matter of being on him when he does, and I’m sure the higher the value of the race the more likely it is that he’ll be trying. Mitchell is the only jockey with a 100% record for Johnston this season but he’s only had the one ride.

    Nwm 5.25 - Majeed ew 33/1 - (I dived in early at 22/1 ) Majeed was arguably unlucky not to win last year’s Wolferton off 100 but that may have bottomed him for the season, maybe for good. He was joint bottom weight that day so will need to go up the ratings to make the cut pretty much for any handicap this year. Jockey bookings suggest stablemate Nonios is preferred, though.

    Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
    Good luck. I will go for Soldiers Minute each way in the 3:05
    Last edited by Marble; 9th June 2018 at 2:47 PM.

  12. #1069
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwm 5.25 - Majeed ew 33/1 - (I dived in early at 22/1 ) Majeed was arguably unlucky not to win last year’s Wolferton off 100 but that may have bottomed him for the season, maybe for good. He was joint bottom weight that day so will need to go up the ratings to make the cut pretty much for any handicap this year. Jockey bookings suggest stablemate Nonios is preferred, though.

    Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
    FFS, second and third!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf_IH3rj0hY

    Looks like the non-runner has cost me a place with the 66/1 shot.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  14. #1070
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    Really annoying that....

  15. #1071
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    Copied, pasted and edited from the RA thread:

    40/1 Accidental Agent EW NRNB for the Queen Anne.

    Following Paul Kealy in, to be honest, but we think along similar lines for big races and by the time I'd ended up studying the race I'd probably end up on the same one but missing out on the price.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  16. #1072
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    York 3.35 Savalas ew 20/1 - I may be taking a bit of a liberty with my rating for Savalas but its the kind of interpretation which has given me an edge in some races in the past. I took 14/1 on Thursday in anticipation of a contraction but it was available at 16/1 last night and 25/1 in a place this morning and longer on the exchange so the market weakness is a concern. The big figure derives from its race last time out in a non-handicap over five at Hamilton in which he short-headed Lake Volta, who put up a superb time two runs later in a Listed race in which he hammered rivals rated 8lbs and 10lbs higher, possibly having bounced in between, with Bengali Boys in third and summer daylight back to the fourth. Hes 6lbs better off with Bengali Boys here. I suspect hes been kept off the track for the last six weeks to preserve his mark. Of course, it may simply be that the Hamilton race was the only true one on a card of slow times but I'm prepared to pay to find out.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th June 2018 at 9:14 AM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  17. #1073
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwm 5.25 - Proposed ew 66/1 - improved in the Middle-East after leaving Richard Hannon but it’s hard to enthuse about his chances here based on his form this season. However, he’s come down 11lbs and at 66/1 if all eight run he’s probably seriously over-priced.
    Hit the bar with this one last week - third on the day but the non-runner took the field down to seven so I missed out on the return. Hoping for better luck today with this one:

    York 2.25 - Misty Birnam ew 66/1 4 pl with some bookies. Misty Birnam has been dropped 7lbs for one run this season and 19lbs in total since he came up from South Africa where he was placed in Group races as a juvenile. I don’t find it difficult to forgive good two-year-olds a poor second season, plus this fellow was seriously disadvantaged trying to race here as a three-year-old having been born in September in the southern hemisphere. If he responds as kindly to Josie Gordon’s handling as so many do, he could be a ridiculous price as the rank outsider.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  18. #1074
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    By the way, I meant to ask last week if the morning show's "Shark's Shout" (Jason Weaver's longshot) was inspired by this thread?
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  19. #1075
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    York 3.35 Savalas ew 20/1 -
    ...

    I took 14/1 on Thursday in anticipation of a contraction but it was available at 16/1 last night and 25/1 in a place this morning and longer on the exchange so the market weakness is a concern.
    Now generally 25/1 and over 50 at Betfair. Looks like it's just there to make up the numbers. I wouldn't put it past the trainer to be keeping it for the Ayr Gold Cup.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  20. #1076
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    York 3.35 Savalas ew 20/1
    Aaforfuxake!! Second again!!!!!!

    I'm hitting more bars than George Best.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  21. #1077
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Savalas was still an excellent call even though beaten, DO. Well done! If you keep hitting the bar just lower your sights a little.

    Thanks to you I grabbed some ew averaging 38 and laid off in running - somewhat prematurely, got a nice dose of adrenalin etc. and a reasonable pick up on a day when my support seemed to act as a 10lb penalty on the horses I backed.
    "Do not think the moment was imagined, do not think of strategies like this." Leonard Cohen

  22. #1078
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    Thanks, TS.

    Hoping to hit the net at the big meeting this week.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  23. #1079
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    Good luck, DO, better a second at those odds than many a winner. They’ll come.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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  25. #1080
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    Coventry Stakes - Barbill ew 66/1 - I thought about holding off on this one until Tuesday as there might be better concessions on the day but whether he'll be the same price I have no idea. He only has a couple of lengths to make up on The Irish Rover (12/1 for this) from their Newbury meeting and tried to come from further back. Should probably be about 20/1 max and Channon is no mug at bringing them to the big meetings.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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