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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1041
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tout Seul View Post
    Alpha Centauri -4.10 Curragh. Stable had very high opinion of her last year and she was only just beaten in the Albany. Her poor runs have occurred when racing on ground that had heavy in the description. Today she runs on ground that will suit and on which she has a proven record. At around 20’s (and even 4 places with Sky) I am taking all I can get- not a lot- backing e.w. but geared so that place returns cover outlay.
    No info but very hopeful. Also think JH might have a good day today.
    Very nice selection, well done.

  2. #1042
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Uttoxeter 3.40
    Surprised to see Roman Flight as big as 33/1 for this. Has won off 2lb higher and offered some encouragement last time out. Closely matched with Cut the Corner on that running and worth backing at nearly 3 times the price imo. Skybet paying 5 places but only 28/1


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    Great pointer. I played the 365 extra places on this, thank you!

  3. #1043
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    Quote Originally Posted by notnowcato View Post
    Very nice selection, well done.
    In a race like that as well! Well done, Tout. More please!
    Last edited by Marb; 27th May 2018 at 7:27 PM.

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    My record on here isnt good.tomorrow 220Leicester im interested in JAVELIN.25/1 4places.

    When this run last time over 7f at this course a guy put this up on another forum aafter reading what w.muir had said about it.
    He said nicole currie said it might be better over a mile,or something like that,so i watched it run and it got shuffled back and stayed on and after the line she had a job to pull it up.steps up to a mile tomorrow but n.currie isnt ridind so basically he is her 5lb claim h8gher.
    Holly doyle rides.this is only his 2nd hcap and runs off 61.
    I think,if they are trying,then it looks a value bet.

  5. #1045
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Two in 5.50 at Epsom today:

    Swift Approval ew 20/1 (4 pl, Sky)
    Albishr ew 50/1 (4 pl, Sky)

    This is possibly a very weak race for really decent money. Most of these would be expected to struggle to make any sort of impact on a normal Class 2 £50k handicap and my gut says to leave well alone. Swift Approval is probably on the downgrade but closer inspection suggests his turf form is on a par with his all-weather and he’s on a winning mark, having popped up on the all-weather earlier this year off 91 (88 today) and under Murphy.

    Albishr went up to 102 last season for running Mildenberger to a nose in a Listed race and started this season off 96 so his plummeting rating (84 today) could make him a blot if he were to make some kind of revival in the first-time cheekpieces for his local trainer.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  7. #1046
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've decided to take a small punt on Flattering in the Oaks at 25/1 (ew, obviously).

    She was 6/4 fav to beat Perfect Clarity (only 7/1 here) in the Lingfield Trial but I reckon she almost certainly bounced that day, only ten days after a wide-margin win in very soft ground. The slight worry is that the bounce effect usually takes about 42 days to subside so this is maybe still a bit soon but at least the ground should help her cause.
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  8. #1047
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The price collapsed just after I posted that - no connection, I imagine - but the current 12/1 is much closer, probably, to her true odds.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  9. #1048
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    She was 6/4 fav to beat Perfect Clarity (only 7/1 here) in the Lingfield Trial
    Beat her today okay.
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  10. #1049
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Two in 5.50 at Epsom today:

    Swift Approval ew 20/1 (4 pl, Sky)
    Albishr ew 50/1 (4 pl, Sky)

    This is possibly a very weak race for really decent money. Most of these would be expected to struggle to make any sort of impact on a normal Class 2 £50k handicap and my gut says to leave well alone. Swift Approval is probably on the downgrade but closer inspection suggests his turf form is on a par with his all-weather and he’s on a winning mark, having popped up on the all-weather earlier this year off 91 (88 today) and under Murphy.

    Albishr went up to 102 last season for running Mildenberger to a nose in a Listed race and started this season off 96 so his plummeting rating (84 today) could make him a blot if he were to make some kind of revival in the first-time cheekpieces for his local trainer.
    Not much wrong with Swift Approval's effort and Albishr was still vying for fourth till late in the race.
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  11. #1050
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    Well played Desert

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  13. #1051
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I got an email this morning suggesting Swift Approval may have been a wee bit unlucky. I've seen the race twice and don't think any interference was enough to change the result. Anyone got any opinions?

    Anyway, I hope to have one or two longshots today which I'll post later.
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  14. #1052
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I got an email this morning suggesting Swift Approval may have been a wee bit unlucky. I've seen the race twice and don't think any interference was enough to change the result. Anyone got any opinions?

    Anyway, I hope to have one or two longshots today which I'll post later.
    i think if he’d have got the rail before the winner when there was a gap he’d have won, Murphy let winner over, maybe didn’t want to be in front too soon.
    Last edited by Steve T; 2nd June 2018 at 7:56 AM.

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  16. #1053
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    Grand effort Des.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I have two for the 5.15 at Epsom, one of my favourite early-season handicaps.

    Twin Star ew 20/1 (5 pl Sky) - this is my main fancy in the race. He looks to have been brought along steadily this season, presumably with something big in mind given that he seemed on a nice curve last year. He’ll almost certainly need to go up at least 2lbs to make the cut in any of the big Ascot handicaps so making sure with a win here would also bring a lovely prize in case his new mark costs him the win at Ascot.

    I'm waiting for my request to be matched for the other one but it will be more than 20/1.

    Edit - it's now been matched...

    Barwick ew 50/1 (5 pl with PP) - Soldier In Action won it last year off 99 but was much better again later in the season, taking his mark up to 110, so he could still be prominent following his drop in the ratings. Eddystone Rock was second off 97 and also later improved at York to win off the same mark. Barwick was just over four lengths behind the winner in seventh off 89 so he is handicapped to win off 4lbs lower. He's been off on jollies abroad for a year but I just suspect this has been a long-term aim. Obviously he may just be a social runner but at the prices I'm happy to pay to find out. I took much longer at Betfair and place-only with one of the bookies.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd June 2018 at 10:04 AM.
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  19. #1055
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm going to add The Pentagon 50/1 (ew) to the thread. If I was prepared to back him at 14/1 (and he was as low as 7s at one stage) then I have to back him at the current odds.
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  20. #1056
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Twin Star ew 20/1 (5 pl Sky) - this is my main fancy in the race.
    Twin Star doesn't run. I presume I've dodged a bullet there
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  21. #1057
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Twin Star doesn't run. I presume I've dodged a bullet there
    Bit like when you back one win instead of EW & spend the race thinking which one's going to do me on the line

  22. #1058
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm going to add The Pentagon 50/1 (ew) to the thread. If I was prepared to back him at 14/1 (and he was as low as 7s at one stage) then I have to back him at the current odds.
    I fear he'll be sent off like Bye Bye Baby was yesterday. Which would harm his chances, but would mean he trades much shorter IR.

  23. #1059
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    Running total

    W -11
    P -3.25
    Total -14.25

    Up against it after a few duff picks so held back a few days. Like the look of today so will re-enter the fray.

    Lingfield 5.40 - Muthraab Aldaar 25/1 Sportingbet (who uses them). 22/1 365 and 20s generally. 1/5 1-3

    I'm going to chance Jim Boyle's inmate in this low grade handicap for amateur riders. I'm working on the basis that Attain is on a mark close to his ceiling, albeit with the help of the top amateur.

    This one was running well until his run at Yarmouth last time. I'm putting a line through that and think that 59 is workable should he run up to it.

    Fully aware I'm taking a risk now with the dead 8 and this will lose some of its appeal with another defector but I'll give it a go.


    4.00 Musselburgh- Crazy Tornado -25/1 general 1/4 3 places

    I think the market has dismissed this one to an extent. Drawn wide but that won't be an issue for this hold up performer, who tends to run some decent races at the track.

    I'm going to assume that Hamilton didn't really play into his strengths last time. He had run twice before at that track and wasn't really troubling the judge on either occasion.

    He ran well on his seasonal comeback off 68 only beaten 4L. He has form over this 9f trip, one such line being a close 2nd to the re-opposing Zeshov. Crazy Tornado received 11lbs that day and gets 12 today taking into account Rowan Scott's claim. I think these two could well be in the mix-up and think the Dalgleish's charge rates the value.

    Dessie - good luck with yours. Had a look at that race and did like Twin Star.

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  25. #1060
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    I dont know if the going has something to do with it but Holiday magic has drifted out to 40/1 in the 550E.
    I was happy with 16s now i dont know what to think.
    Mick easterby/hayley turner.finished 6th last yeat under an uninspiring ride ,slow away and is 9lb lower this year.

    Ive done him in the extra place market at 16s 7 places to cover my bets.
    Could be a costly day.

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