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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1021
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    Tomorrow at york 255 i like LUCKY BEGGAR 33/1.
    He is out of the hcap so he looks up against it,but has won off higher last july and ran well last time.has won on g/f and is well drawn in stall 2.

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  3. #1022
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    LB was one I expected to put up myself when I first saw the race but after going through all the form I've all but dismissed it as regressive. It's also hard to predict the draw at York. Hope it runs well for you though.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    LB was one I expected to put up myself when I first saw the race but after going through all the form I've all but dismissed it as regressive. It's also hard to predict the draw at York. Hope it runs well for you though.
    Being out of the hcap is the worry,only the trainer knows if hes really got a chance as he is going to ruin a good hcap mark but it is for 18 grand.. i thougt he ran well last time. Im only interested because of the price.

  5. #1024
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    5.55 Bath - Vals Magic Touch 50/1 Bet365 1/4odds 1,2
    33s generally.

    I think this one is a bit overpriced based on its last run. Blinkers go on first time, Franny Norton booked off what should be a workable mark of 50.

    A bit gutted there's only 7 going to post especially for a sprint handicap at Bath. It is a class 5 as well with some animals rated in the low 70s so the hope is very much that this filly by Captain Gerrard is well in and improving with racing.

    Another selection coming up shortly and update to the P/L

  6. #1025
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    5.35 York- Rake's Progress 25s Bet365, PP and Will Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4

    This looks a minefield but it could be the source of a big priced runner/winner.

    I'm taking a chance on Heather Main's gelding. I'm of the view that 79 will be a fair mark now back up to his ideal trip after a fair comeback last month. Gerald Mosse takes the ride and hopefully it can be a successful one.

    No point really going into too much detail. 8 or 9 could win this. I hope mine can too and we keep the place terms.

    Good luck.
    Last edited by DanB88; 16th May 2018 at 6:48 AM.

  7. #1026
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    2.55 York - Tomily ew 28/1 - this is my main saver in the race but I have to be concerned that it is weak (so far I've only backed it win-only at betfair to small money). He has disappointed the last twice but on a going day is handicapped to win a race of this nature. This time last season his turf and AW marks were the same but he improved over the winter on the AW to a mark of 104. Last month’s disappointing return to turf has seen his handicap mark drop 5lbs. He carries the saver as he might be ridden to pick up the pieces off a strong pace. If they go too fast and if he is at the top of his game he could win but I reckon the favourite will be extremely hard to beat if he's on the job.
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  8. #1027
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Yarmouth 3.55 Ripper Street 40/1 has relatively good c/d & going form in the context of this race - may surprise? 10/1 0n the machine 4 places 100/1 to win worth chancing minimum e/way bet
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  9. #1028
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    2.55 York ... I reckon the favourite will be extremely hard to beat if he's on the job.
    Just weighing them up again for some reason.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #1029
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    Running total

    W -9, P -1.25, Total -10.25

    6.10 Thirsk - Etiene Gerard - 66/1 1/4 4places generally

    Typical Thirsk sprint here and I just think Nigel Tinkler's filly has to be chanced at this price. I would hope she's straighter for last week's comeback which was probably needed.

    You could draw a direct comparison with her run 3 back over course and distance last August where she wasn't beaten far off 10lbs higher. She gets the assistance of Rachel Richardson tonight who is well worth her 3lbs claim and I'm hoping for an improved showing.

    The bear case so to speak is that the filly has never won at the track and has run more poor races there than good ones. It may well be that she'll come to hand for a summer sequence but I'll take a chance later this afternoon.

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    A second selection for this evening:

    Doncaster 8.20 - Scenery - 22/1 B365, 20/1 others 1/4 3 places

    Eve Johnson-Houghton's charge steps up to 7f tonight for this class 4 handicap on Town Moor.

    This filly ran a fair race over a furlong shorter on her comeback at Kempton where she was beaten 6 1/4 lengths. I thought thst was a fair showing and hope this daughter of Elnadim can show a bit more in this bigger field back on the turf under Ed Greatrex.

    There's reason to think she could be well in tonight off the bottom weight of 8.9 OR71. Lady Dancealot who was one place ahead of her at Ascot in September in receipt of 5lbs won a novice at Goodwood recently and is due to contest her next race off 78.

    The yard has been in fair form particularly with the handicappers with Ice Age winning yesterday. This one would certainly be interesting if a few quid came for her later on.

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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Huntington 7.40 Black Banjo 22/1 - race delayed as 7.10 hasn't gone off yet - This horse was not disgraced last time out, behind much superior opposition than he faces today and run in a fast time. I'm hopeful of a good run.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I don't think Encore D'Or should be 66/1 in the Temple.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #1033
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    Explain 5:25 York....after Marble said he fancied this the layers took him on in great numbers, hence by racetime this should be a qualifier at 20/1!
    Last edited by Marb; 26th May 2018 at 4:54 PM.

  15. #1034
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Alpha Centauri -4.10 Curragh. Stable had very high opinion of her last year and she was only just beaten in the Albany. Her poor runs have occurred when racing on ground that had heavy in the description. Today she runs on ground that will suit and on which she has a proven record. At around 20’s (and even 4 places with Sky) I am taking all I can get- not a lot- backing e.w. but geared so that place returns cover outlay.
    No info but very hopeful. Also think JH might have a good day today.
    Last edited by Tout Seul; 27th May 2018 at 7:36 AM.

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    Uttoxeter 3.40
    Surprised to see Roman Flight as big as 33/1 for this. Has won off 2lb higher and offered some encouragement last time out. Closely matched with Cut the Corner on that running and worth backing at nearly 3 times the price imo. Skybet paying 5 places but only 28/1


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  18. #1036
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Uttoxeter 3.40
    Surprised to see Roman Flight as big as 33/1 for this. Has won off 2lb higher and offered some encouragement last time out. Closely matched with Cut the Corner on that running and worth backing at nearly 3 times the price imo. Skybet paying 5 places but only 28/1


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    Trust me to turn down the 5 places ffs


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  20. #1037
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tout Seul View Post
    Alpha Centauri -4.10 Curragh. Stable had very high opinion of her last year and she was only just beaten in the Albany. Her poor runs have occurred when racing on ground that had heavy in the description. Today she runs on ground that will suit and on which she has a proven record. At around 20’s (and even 4 places with Sky) I am taking all I can get- not a lot- backing e.w. but geared so that place returns cover outlay.
    No info but very hopeful. Also think JH might have a good day today.
    Very well done mate.very nice winner

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    Last edited by Outsider; 27th May 2018 at 4:18 PM.

  21. #1038
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    Great call; thanks.

  22. #1039
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Brilliant call, TS. And I let it go cos it was 16/1 best by the time I saw the post...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. #1040
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