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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #81
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thirsk 3.40

    Worlds His Oyster 20/1 - 25/1 in a place

    (Strikes me as better than he's been able to show the last twice and would otherwise be on a nice curve.)
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  2. #82
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Victoria Cup: Squats 20/1 and Heaven's Guest 25/1 (well they were when I backed them!) both strike me as overpriced.
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  3. #83
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    So Sensible 5.25 Curragh

  4. #84
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Good shout, Maxbet. Certainly outran its odds.
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  5. #85
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    York 2.20: Union Rose is the rank outsider (33/1 in a place) and might be ew value. Defeats in his last two runs aggregating over 70 lengths make for uncomfortable reading but he’s 4lbs lower than when beaten less than a length in a £100k Ascot handicap last summer when the ground might have been against him. The chances are something down the line is the aim rather than this race in which case he has no chance but at 33/1 I’m willing to venture a token stake to find out.

    Edit - best price now 25/1. Not down to me, I don't think...
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th May 2017 at 9:45 AM.
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  6. #86
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    York 2.20: Union Rose...
    The chances are something down the line is the aim rather than this race
    Yep, just prepping for the future but didn't run badly. He was 8lbs better off with the winner for beating him 4 lengths in that Ascot race.

    Didn't even get the place money...

    Mind you, the 33/1 fairly smashed the SP even allowing for the non-runners.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th May 2017 at 2:36 PM.
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  7. #87
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Yep, just prepping for the future but didn't run badly. He was 8lbs better off with the winner for beating him 4 lengths in that Ascot race.

    Didn't even get the place money...

    Mind you, the 33/1 fairly smashed the SP even allowing for the non-runners.
    I followed you in and he ran a decent enough race for my 2 quid e/w.

  8. #88
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Some of these longshots will do the business, simmo. I can almost guarantee it.
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  9. #89
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Some of these longshots will do the business, simmo. I can almost guarantee it.
    Absolutely, I've long been a fan of the longshot!

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    Desert Orchid (18th May 2017)

  11. #90
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    Desert Orchid you are a good judge keep them coming ty

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    Kocollada 6.55 Cork 33/1
    Last edited by Seano; 19th May 2017 at 6:35 PM.

  14. #92
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Full Glass: 22/1 with Labdrokes (Prix Ferdinand Dufaure - 16:35 Auteuil)

    The best young chaser in France is Edward d'Argent, but he misses-out - presumably through injury (though I haven't heard anything on that) - which renders this a wide-open and competitive event.

    There are a number of promising types here, but there's a bit too much guess-work involved, for me to have any really strong opinions. On that basis, I've focused on horses who have run well in defeat behind Edward d'Argent, which has left me with Dalko Moriviere and Full Glass on my short-list.

    Both have run solid-enough behind Edward d'Argent in previous outings; trailing him home at a respectable-enough distance, on more than one occasion. It's tight at the front-end of the market, where Dalko Moriviere is trading at around 5/1 co-3rd-Fave behind 7/2 chance Darling Des Bordes. Full Glass, however, is available at over 20/1, and I just don't get the price-discrepancy - especially since DM finished 8L behind FG in the Prix Fleuret, one of the recognised C&D trials for this race.

    It's possibly down to the fact that Full Glass has been beaten in five of his six chase starts......though that will have quite a bit to do with the fact that he has encountered Edward d'Argent in all of them (he won his other start), and besides, DM is 0/4 over fences himself.

    Possibly it's down to a perceived stable pecking-order, as Macaire's other two runners are the favourite and co-3rd-fave Burnt Out. Maybe it's exacerbated by Reveley passing him over for Burnt Out, whilst Lestrade himself has chosen Darling Des Bordes. At face value, that would appear to leave Kevin Nabet "picking-up the scraps".......however as he showed in yesterday's Questerabad, he is no back-marker at Macaire's yard, and even if Full Glass is considered a third-string, it's very-likely not by as far as Ladbrokes price implies.

    It's wide-open, and I'm expecting Full Glass to comfortably out-run his price.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 21st May 2017 at 2:06 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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  16. #93
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Nice find and well argued, GH.

  17. #94
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Fingers-crossed I'm not full of sh*it, TS. It didn't exactly go my way with Device yesterday!
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Limerick 2.35 Regal D'Argent 33/1 caught my eye l/to as a big improver and I hope will run a nice race today.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  19. #96
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Limerick 2.35 Regal D'Argent 33/1 caught my eye l/to as a big improver and I hope will run a nice race today.
    Fairly smashed the sp (14/1) though!
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  20. #97
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Full Glass: 22/1 with Labdrokes (Prix Ferdinand Dufaure - 16:35 Auteuil).
    Happy to follow you in, GH.
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  21. #98
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Mistake at the infield water did for us.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  22. #99
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Fairly smashed the sp (14/1) though!
    Knew my fate a long way out - I have to believe that wasn't her running and will keep an eye on her. Had no idea she went off that short.
    The horse made a very bad mistake at the 6th hurdle - took off early and landed straight on top of it - probably caused an overreach or something. I don't know how Rachel Blackmore stayed on - she is a very good jockey.
    Last edited by swedish chef; 21st May 2017 at 8:31 PM.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  23. #100
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Two 'qualifiers' today:

    Chester 3.05 Gabrial's Kaka 20/1
    York 3.50 Union Rose 33/1
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