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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #961
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    San 1.50 Grapevine 20/1 - This one has now drifted out to qualify but that in itself is a worry as it is also considerably longer at betfair. He was a 90 horse on the Flat so should really be a 132 hurdler but gets in here off 118. The notion that he could be a 130+ hurdler is backed up by his most recent run in which he was backed into 7/4f to beat a 129-rated opponent. That was his third run over hurdles, qualifying him for a handicap mark, but those three runs turned out to be quiet ones, telling us little about his ability. He also took in a jumpers’ bumper in which he hacked up but that race wouldn’t count for a handicap assessment so in some respects Hendo has let us see that the horse can run.
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    Well done Danny,good run and nice place.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Profits from the thread however may be about to take a small dip as I take another ante-post stab and by my reckoning Rebecca Curtis has a chance of landing back to back feature races after Joe Farrell winning the Scottish Nash comes Relentless Dreamer 40/1 for the Bet365 Gold Cup or as I know it the Whitbread. I

    I also have been a follower of Caroles Destrier who might bounce back coming back to Sandown off a lowly mark but the current 20's about him doing so is a bit stingy given current form so I'll wait until closer the day to have a bit of back up on that one.
    Two good picks, Danny. Well done!
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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Well done again Danny

    Sandown 5.15 Ordo Ab Chao 25/1 - If he has come on for his run and doesn't bounce he looks on a nice mark to outrun his odds.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, I thought about that one, Chef, but couldn't bring myself to get involved with that one as well!!
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    Cheers lads would have hoped for a more positive ride on Relentless Dreamer but can't really grumble too much.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm putting this up on the ante-post thread too as a qualifier there.

    2000 Guineas - U S Navy Flag 20/1 (ew) - I've been crunching some numbers this morning and keep coming back to this one. I'm not convinced the other Coolmores are ahead of him in the domestic pecking order. Some of his 2yo form is outstanding and I'm more than happy to ignore his reappearance run the other week behind the favourite on ground he'd have hated. Gustav Klimt's new OR of 112 would be nowhere near good enough to win the Guineas and is 10lbs below U S Navy Flag's rating going into that race. I'm happy to believe that race was more about getting the latter ready for this weekend. Assuming he gets there fit and well, 20/1 about a horse with his credentials is absolutely knockout value.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another for both this thread and the ante-post one:

    2000 Guineas - Raid 50/1 (ew) - I'm surprised this one is as far below the radar as it is. It was clearly ridden not to win the Greenham, in my opinion, and will almost certainly improve a lot for the outing and then a bit more for the step up in trip. I half-expect Roaring Lion to chicken out of a rematch with Masar leaving Raid as the owners' runner. If they think he has a better chance than Roaring Lion then should he be 50/1? I definitely expect him to beat James Garfield (25/1) and maybe even Expert Eye (12/1). I honestly can't see him actually winning but I can't see him being 50/1 on the day either so the place portion now might be more than double the place-only price on the day.
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  10. #969
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm putting this up on the ante-post thread too as a qualifier there.

    2000 Guineas - U S Navy Flag 20/1 (ew) - I've been crunching some numbers this morning and keep coming back to this one. I'm not convinced the other Coolmores are ahead of him in the domestic pecking order. Some of his 2yo form is outstanding and I'm more than happy to ignore his reappearance run the other week behind the favourite on ground he'd have hated. Gustav Klimt's new OR of 112 would be nowhere near good enough to win the Guineas and is 10lbs below U S Navy Flag's rating going into that race. I'm happy to believe that race was more about getting the latter ready for this weekend. Assuming he gets there fit and well, 20/1 about a horse with his credentials is absolutely knockout value.
    I sort of felt the same way about this one but haven't backed the opinion. I will seriously kick myself in the nuts ( if that's possible) should he win on Saturday. Its probably past experiences with backing these sort of types down the years that has put me off where the form says yes but the market and to some extent the O'Brien camp say no. Just on that last run where Ryan has chosen GK over Us Navy flag which looked a strange choice but then was certainly justified tells me they know that's the one. That's not to say that O Brien doesn't win with 2nd 3rd and 4th strings on a regular basis of course but it was just enough to put me off.

    I wasn't going to bother mentioning this one for today for a whole host of reasons but seen as I'm already scribbling might as well add it on. Professor 28/1 in the lucky last at Ascot today might be of some interest but I'd suggest only a small interest. Apprentice race for a start and a horse who'd been woefully out of form for a long time but maybe in his next couple of outings he may be able to pick up a prize now coming back to turf. He's been switched to William Knights yard and had 2 runs on the All weather which haven't shown much, he'd also been on the All weather on his last few runs for Micheal Attwater. As such, although officially a few pounds out of the handicap today he's still 10lb lower than his last turf attempts. Last season he'd returned from a season off and his first couple of runs didn't show much but his runs in late May early June certainly produced figures that would see him winning off this sort of mark which is a stone lower than a good second at Goodwood.

    Today might not be the day, a mile is probably not ideal but he may still be worth a small investment and he's one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks as I'm sure he can pick up a race at some point and probably at a fair old price.
    Last edited by Danny; 2nd May 2018 at 1:12 PM.
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    Danny

    Ascot 16.55 Professor Professor isn’t showing me a great deal at the moment so is probably best watched. W.Knight

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    Cheers for that LM its no real bother for me as said I haven't had anything major on it he's one I'll back tentatively until he goes in or I finally decide he's that he's gone at the game.

    I gave up listening to Trainers, jockey's, stable lads thoughts a long time ago. Not completely as I sometimes try to read between the lines of what people are saying but tbh Trainers are wrong about their horses as often as good punters are. On this occasion though I'm not too far from convinced that he's right and the horse is probably best watched but at 28/1 I've taken a small pop.
    Last edited by Danny; 2nd May 2018 at 1:33 PM.
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    A bit frustrating that one as all the pace looked to be high but for some reason the majority shifted the other way Professor isolated tracking the slower group which he did best of but could only manage a frustrating 6th overall.

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    Senior Member Anadin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm putting this up on the ante-post thread too as a qualifier there.

    2000 Guineas - U S Navy Flag 20/1 (ew) - I've been crunching some numbers this morning and keep coming back to this one. I'm not convinced the other Coolmores are ahead of him in the domestic pecking order. Some of his 2yo form is outstanding and I'm more than happy to ignore his reappearance run the other week behind the favourite on ground he'd have hated. Gustav Klimt's new OR of 112 would be nowhere near good enough to win the Guineas and is 10lbs below U S Navy Flag's rating going into that race. I'm happy to believe that race was more about getting the latter ready for this weekend. Assuming he gets there fit and well, 20/1 about a horse with his credentials is absolutely knockout value.
    N/R off to the French version.

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    Clonmel 8.00 Lady Mona Lisa each way.

    This one has been running over jumps for a while now, and now she's back on the flat I reckon this kind of trip will be right up her street. A lowly mark of 44 plus a further 5lb's off from a good claimer (son of the trainer on board for the first time), plus the longer trip makes her massively overpriced despite having not shown a lot previously. It's a pretty poor race, and while I could make a better case for two or three others, there are sixteen runners and four places up for grabs. I'm certainly not making a case for her winning but I've backed her ew at split stakes with 365 50/1 four places and 25/1 8 places as a bit of extra cover.

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    Clonmel 7.30 The Graduate 25/1 - this is in my tracker as will win a h'cap. I suspect I put it there for a hurdles race. With the stable being a gambling stable I doubt very much today is the day but will have 1pt e/way just in case.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    I've done two long shots for the guineas. Cardsharp can be had 100-1 and Murillo at 50-1. We live in hope

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nonannyimfine View Post
    I've done two long shots for the guineas. Cardsharp can be had 100-1 and Murillo at 50-1. We live in hope
    I've been up since 3.30am (couldn't sleep) so spent some time checking some form.

    The Coventry was a fast race so Murillo and Rajasinghe could have better chances than their respective odds if their stamina holds out. A little bit of me wonders why Murillo is still in the race, considering the Ballydoyle legions.

    I don't know if I'll back either but they're on my radar.
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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Cork 5.55 Leap Dearg 25/1
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    I've taken 40/1 Headway in the 2,000. Pedigree suggests a mile will be close to his optimum, as did the visuals as a 2 year old and despite being a long way from what is required tomorrow, his first time out win at Lingfield this season was mightily impressive. Haggas has started the season in blinding form too.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  23. #980
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I've taken 40/1 Headway in the 2,000. Pedigree suggests a mile will be close to his optimum, as did the visuals as a 2 year old and despite being a long way from what is required tomorrow, his first time out win at Lingfield this season was mightily impressive. Haggas has started the season in blinding form too.
    Another from the Coventry, if I'm not mistaken.

    Lots of gushing about his AW win in the media at the time but the time doesn't amount to a great deal even with the 32lbs (or whatever it was) Timeform mark-up. I suspect it was a very weak race and that any of the big guns tomorrow could have done the same thing.

    However, the Coventry form strikes me as an awful lot better and it's on that form that he can't be discounted.
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