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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #901
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    Well done Des cracking effort.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've also taken mixed ew doubles, only because two bookies are going 5 places in both races:

    Isomer and Secret Art x Medieval and Donncha

    Lowest win double pays about 179/1; highest pays 441/1

    All just for coffee money, though.
    Isomer & Donncha paid just over 24/1 for the place double so overall a reasonable profit on the day.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm getting this in now for tomorrow as I'm half-expecting the bookie (Bet 365) to 'correct' the price by morning.

    CHL 2.40 - Quite By Chance (ew) 33/1 - he's been disappointing in his last three runs but they have coincided with the awful midwinter ground we've had. Go back to the late autumn and the better ground and he ran really well against handicap good things Exitas and Sir Valentino, the latter in a hundred-grander, off higher marks. The step back up in trip, the lower mark and the better ground will, I hope, bring about a much improved run and the stable was in brilliant form at Aintree last week. I reckon he really should be no longer in the betting than Frodon or Go Conquer.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th April 2018 at 9:17 PM.
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    Cheers DO. I had him down as reasonably priced at 20/1 with Skybet but more than happy to take the 33/1 with Bet365


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Cheers DO. I had him down as reasonably priced at 20/1 with Skybet but more than happy to take the 33/1 with Bet365
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    Good stuff DO.

    Cheltenham 4.25 Premier Bond 25/1 5 places.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm getting this in now for tomorrow as I'm half-expecting the bookie (Bet 365) to 'correct' the price by morning.

    CHL 2.40 - Quite By Chance (ew) 33/1 - he's been disappointing in his last three runs but they have coincided with the awful midwinter ground we've had. Go back to the late autumn and the better ground and he ran really well against handicap good things Exitas and Sir Valentino, the latter in a hundred-grander, off higher marks. The step back up in trip, the lower mark and the better ground will, I hope, bring about a much improved run and the stable was in brilliant form at Aintree last week. I reckon he really should be no longer in the betting than Frodon or Go Conquer.
    Mo I quite fancy outsiders pick Traffic Fluide in this 365 also a standout price at 14's. That doesn't qualify for the thread of course but the forecast pays over 400/1 either way around.

    I've gone for the big kahuna !
    Last edited by Danny; 17th April 2018 at 11:47 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Mo I quite fancy outsiders pick Traffic Fluide in this 365 also a standout price at 14's. That doesn't qualify for the thread of course but the forecast pays over 400/1 either way around.

    I've gone for the big kahuna !
    No discipline

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    Haha caught me

    Seriously though if you expect both to halve in price and I think both of you have made solid cases for both then it has to be worth a go. If they go off at 8's and 16's the forecast would pay 130 and 160 ish not 400 and 430ish. You know you're on board outsider
    Last edited by Danny; 18th April 2018 at 1:05 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Mo I quite fancy outsiders pick Traffic Fluide in this 365 also a standout price at 14's. That doesn't qualify for the thread of course but the forecast pays over 400/1 either way around.

    I've gone for the big kahuna !
    If TF were guaranteed to run his race it would be a stone cold racing certainty. It would also be priced accordingly


    You're getting 14/1 that it can be buggered. I'm not sure I'd take that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    One today.

    Nwm 4.10 Isomer 25/1 (ew, 5 pl with 2 books) - The owner's apparent second-string, Isomer, comes here on the back of a disappointing all-weather run in a very humble race which he couldn’t win at odds-on. That’s probably forgivable on the back of a six-month break and Murphy has a good strike rate for Balding. Isomer is lightly raced so may have had issues and was gelded after his final run last year. He had run well on a G3 at Salisbury on his second appearance last season and starts this turf season 9lbs lower than then.

    I've also taken mixed ew doubles, only because two bookies are going 5 places in both races:

    Isomer and Secret Art x Medieval and Donncha

    Lowest win double pays about 179/1; highest pays 441/1

    All just for coffee money, though.
    Well done with Isomer DO and the place double with Donncha.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another couple for today:

    Chl 4.25 - Bryden Boy ew 66/1 (5pl) - Not my main bet in the race but far too long at the price. Should be around the same price as Whataknight. Bryden Boy beat Whataknight last season getting 13lbs less the latter’s rider’s 5lbs claim and gets 9lbs here. The stable’s runners are doing really well at the moment with seven of their last nine no worse than third in their respective races.

    Chl 5.00 - Delusionofgrandeur 25/1 (5pl) - Again, not my main bet but I had a small bet on this lad in the National as I have him well handicapped on his Rowland Meyrick form. The worry with him is a very negative report (Ken Pitterson) on his condition ahead of the National in today’s edition of the Weekender.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th April 2018 at 11:29 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    If TF were guaranteed to run his race it would be a stone cold racing certainty. It would also be priced accordingly


    You're getting 14/1 that it can be buggered. I'm not sure I'd take that.
    Didn't qualify for the thread but well done Danny and Outsider. Backed as though just about guaranteed to run its race. Weird, weird race though.
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    The Long Shot Thread

    Well done Danny and Outsider

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    Last edited by viking; 18th April 2018 at 2:55 PM.

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    I can't take the credit for that one lads he'd made the case for it months ago. He certainly wasn't on my radar for anything until Outsider flagged him up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post

    Chl 4.25 - Bryden Boy ew 66/1 (5pl) - Not my main bet in the race but far too long at the price. Should be around the same price as Whataknight. Bryden Boy beat Whataknight last season getting 13lbs less the latter’s rider’s 5lbs claim and gets 9lbs here. The stable’s runners are doing really well at the moment with seven of their last nine no worse than third in their respective races.
    Strange ride for both. Whataknight was my main bet in the race (12/1 ew) and I genuinely felt wherever he finished Bryden Boy wouldn't be far away. I don't know if BB was squeezed out turning at the top of the hill but he lost a lot of ground very suddenly. Whataknight, as at the festival, got a tactically inept ride. Fehily has got it wrong a number of times this season but maybe the horse needs to travel wide but I thought he was maybe just over-confident and the winner caught him cold.
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    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Well done again chaps.

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    3.15 Cheltenham
    Indian Stream looks overpriced at 20/1 with Bet365. Her 4th at the Festival and previous good run here attempting to give 10lb to Midnight Tour who’s now rated 151 looks decent form


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    Indian Stream is 5 places with Skybet too also 20/1

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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Indian Stream is 5 places with Skybet too also 20/1
    Its drifted then,i took 11/1 last night.

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