Page 43 of 117 FirstFirst ... 3338394041424344454647485393 ... LastLast
Results 841 to 860 of 2332

Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #841
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Posts
    258
    Thanks
    28
    Thanked 71 Times in 67 Posts
    I've done two today at crazy odds. 1.40 caius college girl 66-1 and in the 3.25 sans souci bay also at 66-1. Both trainers partial to the odd silly price winner. Here's hoping I land the 4,489-1 double.

  2. #842
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Just the one for me today but I should emphasise I'm only experimenting with AW racing. Normally I bodyswerve it.

    Kem 5.00 Port Douglas 22/1 - an ex-Coolmore horse who went up to 111 for running up to US Army Ranger in the Chester Vase and was only 16/1 in the Derby (but beaten a long way). He wasn’t beaten far in the Irish Derby before moving to Singapore where he disappointed. He’s been with Paul Cole since January and had a run out last month so this is an interesting entry for him off just 95 and I like the booking of Probert.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th April 2018 at 10:23 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Danny (7th April 2018)

  4. #843
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    I mentioned earlier in the week on another thread about really liking the look of Ghaiyyath last year and having looked at the betting for the Classics this year I'm thinking its likely he is going to swerve the Guineas and go the Dante-Derby route. He's 25/1 for the Derby and although I have to admit I was hugely impressed with Saxon Warrior at the back end of last season at the prices I don't mind taking him on. Not being the best judge of such things I don't really want to be laying out a huge chunk of my own dough on the opinion, so I've decided to try a couple more of those crazy e/w doubles that I love so much to see if I can buy some cheap money to run on to this whimsical fancy.

    I have to admit to having various wagers already down on the Grand National but over the last week having been watching some replays of key races I have 2 fancies that I think hold fairly solid claims of placing and perhaps slightly more than a punchers chance of winning. The first I'd already mentioned somewhere was Saint Are 66/1 fairly straight forward really stayed on well for third last year and arrives back off the same mark incredibly well weighted with the 4th Blaklion who not only returns higher in the handicap but basically in preparation seemed to have run himself to a complete standstill at Haydock and he's about 1/5th off the price of the Saint.

    The one I'm probably more keen on and I'm really warming too having not been keen initially is Regal Encore 33/1. I wrote a piece on him earlier in the week,

    From the Hennessy I've looked at Regal Encore and Total Recall. Regal Encore is certainly weighted to reverse from that being 10lb better off for 9 lengths and certainly at this trip I always use 0.5lb to a length as a rough guide unless its Heavy Ground then I'd double it. Regal Encore generally 33/1 and can be considered value but I don't think he'll be too far removed from that on the day so I wouldn't be pulling the trigger just yet. He finished 8th in last years Nash which at first glance may put you off however in context of what that means he was less than 2 lengths away from 6th which most firms will pay 6 places on the day. Its also notable and you could consider that he was "held up and staying on" which is a little different from the others OFA And CoC (1st and 2nd) don't run. Saint Are 3rd was staying on however I think its safe to say that the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th, placed finishers all held their respective chances turning in and appeared to not get home ( I could make excuses for some if pushed on it) . In other words he hasn't been beaten because he failed to stay.If anything he was probably held up too far back he was still in the back line of horses roughly 30-40L off the leaders he made up a lot of ground just before they turned for home and then looked held for a while but if you take a look at his position after the last fence he still looks about 15L down on the likes of Pleasant Company and Vieux lion rouge but by the line he's right up their backsides. As a first attempt at the National I'm thinking they've held him up trying to make sure he see's out the trip (always a bad/false strategy in my view) I'm wondering if now he's proven to have seen it out whether they may make a bit more use of him this year or even if the ground is a bit more testing whether that would help. Last year he took in a run at Cheltenham before hand when Pulling up in the plate this year looks a lot more like he's more been completely laid out for the Nash and certainly looks a bit better than last years efforts where he'd pulled up 3 times. He comes in this year off the back of a win in a Handicap just after the weights were set. Whilst that win was comparable, beating Minella Daddy, around Ascot (mirror result of some 14 month earlier) may suggest he's not progressed I have his 3rd in the Hennessey by far the best run he's ever produced figures wise. The more I type the more I talk myself into this one tbh and I'll definitely have some involvement by the day and he'll be one for the combi's I'm sure.

    Total Recall on the other hand whilst I admit I've been impressed with what he's done so far ( I must have been to have a small involvement on him at some point) I'm drawing the Conclusion that he won't get the trip or if he does he's an unbelievable animal. I've noted from watching the replays that he's a very keen going sort. His spin over hurdles in Ireland he was entitled to be very keen as he was a class above his rivals and I wouldn't have though anything there could make him raise a gallop. However, both the Hennessey and The Gold cup were run at Grd1 pace and he was still fairly keen to my eye. We didn't get to see how he'd finish at Cheltenham and he did stay on strongly in the Hennessy but there is another mile here and he's not as well Handicapped as pointed out by my view of Regal Encore.

    So 5 places NRNB with 365 for the nash runners.

    Regal encore 33/1 £15 e/w double Ghaiyyath 25/1 (Derby) 3 places 5th
    Saint Are 66/1 £10 e/w double Ghaiyyath 25/1 (Derby) 3 places 5th.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to Danny For This Useful Post:

    Colin Phillips (8th April 2018)

  6. #844
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Wincanton 3:15 Agincourt Reef. 33/1 (Each Way)

    I have seen worse 33/1 chances! He needs forgiving the last two runs. I reckon he needed them. His handicap rating looks more than fair. The heavy ground is a question mark, but on the limited occasions he went on soft/heavy in 2016, he won and finished second a couple of times. He's never really encountered that ground since then, but I fancy he's one of those rare lower-grade types, that can act on this when he races on it. The claimer takes off seven pounds which is less weight on his back. All in all, I think 33/1 is a stonking price for each way purposes, with the 10 runners. Some market support would be good to see.
    Last edited by Marb; 8th April 2018 at 10:08 PM.

  7. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    Danny (9th April 2018)

  8. #845
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Ludlow 5.05 Crazy Jack 33/1 - 4th in this race last year btn 5 1/4L by todays opposing fav Full Throttle. Full Throttle probably could have won further that day but my selection is 13lb better off and has decent course form, that suggests he is overpriced and a drop to this trip will suit.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  9. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to swedish chef For This Useful Post:

    Danny (9th April 2018), Desert Orchid (9th April 2018), simmo (9th April 2018)

  10. #846
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Chef I've followed you in for a few quid as that's a fair case you make and I've also been able to boost laddies 33's to 40's so fingers crossed mate that you are serving up one of your specials (cheesy I know)
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  11. #847
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Cheers chef
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Danny For This Useful Post:

    swedish chef (9th April 2018)

  13. #848
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    3rd 25/1.

    Got 33s earlier so small profit secured. Cheers yet again, chef.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    swedish chef (9th April 2018)

  15. #849
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I have one big fancy (the market is saying otherwise, though) today.

    4.40 Robinshill 40/1 (I took 33s earlier) - I’m inclined to ignore the two Ps in his form as they were both over 2m5f and after a longish break. I’d also strip out his fifth last time as he was always going to be outclassed in the Arkle, also after a long break. That leaves the rest of his chase form this season reading U11 at 2m and he was 4 lengths clear when unseating at the last. He goes in the ground and is a lovely price.

    I also have some sickness insurance on Savello (66/1) in the same race as he's miles clear top on his old form and I'd kick myself if he went and won.

    Also, at Chelteham I had a small ew double dabble on the two Sizings (Codelco and Platinum) as I had nice ratings for them. They don't look as attractive today in their given races but again if they were both placed and I wasn't on I'd be out on the streets looking for cats to kick.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    PRICEWISE2008 (12th April 2018)

  17. #850
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    I put up Diakali on the Aintree thread at 50/1, though he's generally 25/1 now (bits of 28/1). Still a fair each-way price in a moody race.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  18. The Following User Says Thank You to Grasshopper For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (12th April 2018)

  19. #851
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Also, at Chelteham I had a small ew double dabble on the two Sizings (Codelco and Platinum) as I had nice ratings for them. They don't look as attractive today in their given races but again if they were both placed and I wasn't on I'd be out on the streets looking for cats to kick.
    Fvcking fourth (I was on at 100/1 & 20/1). I was on Codelco at 50s in the Ultima. If he'd run there the way he ran here he'd have gone very close. Mind you, he also stookied every other fence at Cheltenham. If he could jump he'd be dangerous.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #852
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Cracking effort Des.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  21. The Following User Says Thank You to Danny For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (12th April 2018)

  22. #853
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I put up Diakali on the Aintree thread at 50/1, though he's generally 25/1 now (bits of 28/1). Still a fair each-way price in a moody race.
    I think you're entitled to be royally pissed off with that, GH.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. #854
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Des as I know you were slightly interested in Road to riches I had a small interest at 66/1 with Bet365 which I've cashed out for the same value. Ladbrokes are 80/1 but if you can get the price boosts they offer that goes to 100/1 so I've replaced my voucher with that.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  24. #855
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Cheers, Danny. Followed you in.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  25. #856
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    I'll add one or two more as I come across them but first up today is:

    1.45 Sumkindofking 20/1 - not my main bet in the race because of the trainer's form but I'd otherwise be all over this one like a rash. Tom George had four runners on Thursday. One was pulled up and the others were beaten 38L, 29L and 40L. Of his four other runners going back to 31 March, two pulled up and the others were beaten 74L and 32L. How on earth he got Summerville Boy to win the Supreme beggars belief. Sumkindofking can therefore only carry a saver. I presume he’s been trained for this all year. He was sent off 8/1 co-fav for this race last year off 4lbs higher but he might need better ground anyway.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  26. #857
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,018
    Thanks
    1,467
    Thanked 1,553 Times in 1,112 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I think you're entitled to be royally pissed off with that, GH.
    Hard to be impressed with the ride, certainly!
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  27. #858
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Next up...

    4.05 Art Mauresque 20/1 - this is one of my two main bets in the race (the other is Theatre Territory). I've always had good figures for this one but he's obviously had issues, being so lightly raced. His first run this season was in the good hundred-grander at Ascot won by Go conquer but he fell at the first and then was off for a while. His two runs since the turn of the year don't read at all badly now, beaten 8L by Waiting Patiently and then doing a bit much close to the pace in the Betdaq, also worth £100k. He also jumped left in those races and his early-career peaks were at left-handed tracks. If he can improve for going left-handed again he could easily win. Of course, he'll have to jump but that's the game, innit?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  28. #859
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Next...

    5.15 Al Dancer 40/1 - NTD tends to send his better horses to this race so with the first-time hood he's a lovely each-way price.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  29. #860
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Next up...

    4.05 Art Mauresque 20/1 - this is one of my two main bets in the race (the other is Theatre Territory). I've always had good figures for this one but he's obviously had issues, being so lightly raced. His first run this season was in the good hundred-grander at Ascot won by Go conquer but he fell at the first and then was off for a while. His two runs since the turn of the year don't read at all badly now, beaten 8L by Waiting Patiently and then doing a bit much close to the pace in the Betdaq, also worth £100k. He also jumped left in those races and his early-career peaks were at left-handed tracks. If he can improve for going left-handed again he could easily win. Of course, he'll have to jump but that's the game, innit?
    I've taken small bets at nice prices to back up the main two:

    Eastlake 28/1
    Rogue Angel 33/1
    Shanahan's Turn 20/1

    For the most part they're sickness insurance as they owe me but I've been backing them because they are very well handicapped on their best old form. Shanahan's Turn is maybe the least fanciable of the three, certainly at the prices as I was hoping for 40/1, but I backed him at the festival at 66/1 for the Brown Advisory when he travelled very sweetly for a long way. I'd be pig-sick if he won and I wasn't on.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  30. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    simmo (13th April 2018)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •