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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #821
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Chepstow 4.00 Firebird Flyer - managed to get 21/1 on the machine - On lowest mark for over 5 years and I'm given it one last chance - reportedly working well at home.
    Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
    Firebird Flyer22 £5.00 £105.00

    Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
    Firebird Flyer5.6 £4.00 £18.40
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    Cork 3.40 Robin On The Hill 40/1 & Taras Smile 80/1 - Don't expect either to win unless there is mayhem for the two favs but will play them to 3 & 4 places - staked to make a profit should one finish 3rd or 4th if odds allow?
    Last edited by swedish chef; 22nd March 2018 at 1:55 PM.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  2. #822
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Three in the Lincoln strike me as longer than they should be but, of course, if they're not ready 100/1 wouldn't be value.

    Kings Gift 50/1 - I backed this when it was 33/1 on Thursday so I'm disappointed that I don't have the price guarantee. The drift also has me concerned that it isn't even trying. It's under the same ownership as Lord Glitters and carries the second colours but I can't imagine Mulrennan taking up a booking for a non-trier in a race like this when he could have been in demand for others.

    Dolphin Vista 25/1 - I missed out on the 33/1 yesterday evening waiting for it to be more generally available this morning. Tidy winner of the Cambridgeshire and his 7lbs claimer has a very good strike rate for a group of trainers and it may be that Meade is latching on to him. He offsets the rise he got for winning at Newmarket.

    Gabrial 28/1 - previous winner and handicapped to go close again. Should probably be no more than 12/1.
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  4. #823
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    Well done Chef. Cooking up a treat with those big priced places.

    I'm going to start measuring my contributions using a 1pt EW level staking plan. Just to see how I get on throughout the flat season and rest of the year in general. I'll take the place terms offered by a bookmaker who is offering the 20s+.

    One for tonight:

    8.45 Wolves - Tisa River - 66/1 General 1/5 odds 1/2/3

    This is a moderate horse but with Point North out of the contest I'm convinced it's not the strongest race for the grade. I've noticed Milton has gone for a 5lb claimer off a mark of 46 and the horse is drawn on the inside.

    This is the sort of horse I can see falling in somewhere. It may be that they're waiting for the turf to kick off properly and he's just ticking over on the all weather but I'll give it a shot at the price available. I think 28s or 33s would have been fair and anything bigger than 50s is big.

    Good luck.

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    Ive done two in the irish lincoln tomorrow which coral have at backable prices

    Canary row 25/1 is only 12s with bet 365 and he loves heavy going.the only negative is he might be better over 7f but has won over 1m.

    The other really is a longshot
    Coherent 66/1 25s bet365.been running over the sticks and must have caught my eye as hes in my alerts.
    Hasnt won on the flat but was 2nd over 10f on soft at beverley.

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    I've done ontheiflist 33-1

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    Not one to be going mad on but Khelman 40/1 in the first at Doncaster usually runs alright first time up his mark has dropped a bit and has a 5lb claimer on top. Worth a look anyway imo.

    In the same race Fingals Cave 25/1 is probably also worth a second look. Has some decent bits and pieces over 7f on soft ground and has run with some credit after his breaks without setting the world alight. Less sure about this one but worth a look anyway.
    Last edited by Danny; 25th March 2018 at 8:51 AM.
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  10. #827
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Downpatrick - 2.10 Fiveaftermidnight 40/1 in places - wasn't disgraced btn 32L in a grade 2 bumper l/t/o considering the winner and third were all out and went on to finish 1st & 7th in the champion bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. Selection has finished a close 2nd in a PTP so hurdles shouldn't be a problem and extra distance should be in her favour. With mares allowance and 7lb claimer she is getting a stone in weight off the fav. It wouldn't come as a surprise if she outran her odds in an easier race.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  12. #828
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Downpatrick - 2.10 Fiveaftermidnight 40/1 in places - wasn't disgraced btn 32L in a grade 2 bumper l/t/o considering the winner and third were all out and went on to finish 1st & 7th in the champion bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. Selection has finished a close 2nd in a PTP so hurdles shouldn't be a problem and extra distance should be in her favour. With mares allowance and 7lb claimer she is getting a stone in weight off the fav. It wouldn't come as a surprise if she outran her odds in an easier race.
    Unlucky there Chef. Travelled nicely and just nabbed the Gigi horse up the run in.

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  14. #829
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    Running total.

    Win - 0/1 = -1pt
    Place - 0/1 = -1pt

    Bit of a speculative one for tomorrow.

    5.45 Wolves - He's Our Star - 20/1 Paddy Power and William Hill. Both 1/4 odds 1/2/3.

    Right, so we have He's Our Star reappearing off a break tomorrow. He ticks a few of my boxes but he also has a couple of question marks.

    I'm encouraged by the jockey booking. Rossa Ryan showed last back-end particularly that he was good value for the 5 and I don't expect that to last too long once he gets up and running. I think a mark of 65 is fair based on the below.

    This horse ran a very good race to finish 3rd behind Gameplayer Emperor in what was admittedly a run of the mill 2yo auction maiden by Newbury's standards. The winner went on to win his next two starts before being sold to continue his career in Hong Kong. He left the UK with a rating of 85 and has run with credit in two starts at Happy Valley.

    He's Our Star made his 2nd start in an early Bath maiden over 5f, won by the useful Helvetian from the Channon yard who kept his form well for the rest of the season. The 2nd that day, a filly from the Clive Cox yard (Swing Out Sister) went on to win a Sandown novice and finished the season rated 74. It was clear that the drop to 5f wasn't to the selection's liking but he was by no means disgraced.

    The next two runs, one at Lingfield and the other at Leicester were both fair without obvious promise. However I believe the Lingfield race was probably the best 2yo maiden at the track last season and the Leicester race was a backend handicap which I'm willing to forgive.

    He's Our Star returns as a 3yo, gelded and up in trip to the unique 9.5f around Dunstall Park. Fairly drawn with a promising apprentice booked first time points to a place prospect at the very least for me.

    The main reservation is that this looks like a typical 3yo handicap at this time a year. There's a couple in hear with 3 inauspicious runs and a handicap mark and it wouldn't surprise me to see either Short Head, Braemar or Appenzeller come to the fore.

    My preference though is for He's Our Star, both for tomorrow but also for the next few runs where hopefully he can do better than a mark of 65.

    Good luck.
    Last edited by DanB88; 28th March 2018 at 8:52 PM.

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  16. #830
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Two for today:

    Mus 1.50 Exchecquer 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but before his AW/turf ratings split he was about the same level on turf but his AW rating has gone up. He was blocked twice when not beaten far by Twin Appeal at Wolves in December and is 4lbs lower here. It’s a while since he ran on turf and if he appreciates the return to it for his new trainer he could be well handicapped.

    Mus 3.35 Mount Tahan 25/1 - Again, not my main bet in the race but he looks on a serious curve on the AW since upped in trip yet appears ignored in the market here. Maybe I'm just missing something obvious but for me he should be a single-figure price.
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  17. #831
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Two for today:

    Mus 1.50 Exchecquer 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but before his AW/turf ratings split he was about the same level on turf but his AW rating has gone up. He was blocked twice when not beaten far by Twin Appeal at Wolves in December and is 4lbs lower here. It’s a while since he ran on turf and if he appreciates the return to it for his new trainer he could be well handicapped.

    Mus 3.35 Mount Tahan 25/1 - Again, not my main bet in the race but he looks on a serious curve on the AW since upped in trip yet appears ignored in the market here. Maybe I'm just missing something obvious but for me he should be a single-figure price.
    Good luck DO. Was looking at both races for a long shot but resisted in the end.

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  19. #832
    Senior Member Anadin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Fairyhouse 1.45 Design Matters 33/1 - This came to my attention as he is the most expensive purchase in the field at 45,000 euros and I would of had a minimum e/way just for that reason. I did some research and came across this article http://www.itm.ie/en/Media_Centre/Ne...NT_BROWN_FARM/
    Pay particular attention on what he has to say about Lot 76 as that is the selection.
    This horse is up again today in the 1400 Cork - currently 66-1 (doubtful the most expensive horse in the field this time, but I like to follow a Chef special & maybe e/w up to 5 ?)

  20. #833
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anadin View Post
    This horse is up again today in the 1400 Cork - currently 66-1 (doubtful the most expensive horse in the field this time, but I like to follow a Chef special & maybe e/w up to 5 ?)
    Interesting reading this as he went into my alerts today for when he goes handicapping.

  21. #834
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    He's Our Star ran well enough the other day but was tapped for a bit of toe in the middle part of the race and ran on well to just miss the frame. Usually the way with these longshots but I expect it will be winning this season.

    Running total

    Win 0/2 -2pts
    Place 0/2 -2pts
    Total -4pts

    Onto tomorrow.

    Wolverhampton 4.20 Vincenzo Coccotti 20/1 general 1/4 1/2/3

    I think this is horse has a fair chance tomorrow at 20s. Drawn down the inside and effective over both 6 and 7, the selection can run well under Hector Crouch. Feasibly handicapped off 62. Had 3 runs in a month to get handicapped and a break to be freshened up for the big run tomorrow... heard stranger things at sea.

    I've had a look at the field for tomorrow's race and I don't think it's that competitive, despite a few having won recently. Critical Thinking doesn't look well in and Acadean Angel doesn't look capable of winning off 66. Herm may be close to his ceiling for the time being after two recent wins and Air of York hasn't really been threatening at Wolves having had enough chances in this grade.

    I'm happy to chance Vincenzo Coccotti. The stable hasn't sent out a stack of runners, just 4 in the last 2 weeks but there was a winner amongst them and I'd be disappointed if this one didn't make the frame tomorrow.
    Last edited by DanB88; 1st April 2018 at 8:40 PM.

  22. #835
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    Good reasoning Dan best of luck fella.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  23. #836
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    Cheers Danny. Been hard going on the longshots but I think it's very much a case of carrying on and I'll start on a run of better results.

  24. #837
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The very nature of the beast is that it won't win. Finding the one(s) that buck(s) the odds is the fun.
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  25. #838
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Westerner Point in the Irish National 6 places, 40 /1 was 50 earlier.

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    2.30 Chepstow Youngoconnor. 50/1. Much better than seem so far. Brought down last time but really could go well.

  27. #840
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    More value longshots in the Irish Nash than you can shake a stick at.

    The nature of the race and the market means a lot of them are much longer than they really should be. I know this thread is for 20/1+ suggestions but there are far too many of them.

    I'm going to limit myself to those at 50/1 and longer for this race on this thread. In order of preference:

    The Paparrazi Kid 66/1
    Kilcarry Bridge 80/1
    Champagne Harmony 125/1
    Lord Scoundrel 50/1
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