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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #761
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    I agree Des just being a lot better off in the weights with CML points to him being value. I couldn't back him e/w as I just can't see him winning but have included him in some combi's with ones I fancy more.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  3. #762
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    Mr Antolini looks to have improved bundles since joining NTD and may have more to come. May be good value for the Imperial Cup at 22/1


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  4. #763
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I had backed Melrose Boy in the 1.50 Sandown (10/1 before it came in to 7s and less) but I see it's a non-runner. I've had a quick dekko through my ratings and gone instead each-way with Notre Ami at 50/1.

    It's not a question of fancying it that much. It's more a case of on all the figures that it shouldn't be that price. It's chances are probably no worse than most of those in the 12/1 - 16/1 bracket.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. #764
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Hereford 1.40 G.I.Jayne 50/1 showed first sign of form for a while in a better race l/t/o, a race I am following runners from as I think it will spout a few winners. Hopefully selection is a mare coming into form.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  7. #765
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Mr Antolini looks to have improved bundles since joining NTD and may have more to come. May be good value for the Imperial Cup at 22/1
    Great shout, viking! VWD!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #766
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    Ditto.

    Great shout V.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  9. #767
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Mr Antolini looks to have improved bundles since joining NTD and may have more to come. May be good value for the Imperial Cup at 22/1
    Nice one, viking.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  10. #768
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    Cheers fellas. Some funds for the week ahead


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  11. #769
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    Well done, Viking. Be good to hear your festival handicap fancies in the near future.
    Last edited by Marb; 10th March 2018 at 6:59 PM.

  12. #770
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    Well found, Viking.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  13. #771
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Mr Antolini looks to have improved bundles since joining NTD and may have more to come. May be good value for the Imperial Cup at 22/1


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    Great pick viking - well done!
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  14. #772
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    Can't believe I missed this one [usually check this thread all the time]; well done!

  15. #773
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'll probably have quite a few of these this week. I always do at the festival meetings because the markets make them possible.

    1.30 Sharjah 20/1 and Debuchet 33/1

    I took Sharjah at 7/1 before his last run but I got the NRNB and BOG so I don't mind that he's now 20/1. On good ground I'd fancy him to run away with the race. Softer ground is the issue but he has won in it. Wherever Claimanatakinforgan is in the betting Debuchet should be ahead of him. He was 50/1, possible more, the other day but now that the market for this has settled 33/1 (which I took about the same time as Sharjah) is still there. Take Fayonagh out of the bumper and he'd have been a taking winner. Again, the ground is a concern but he's no mug and was weighing up the field last time.

    2.50 Sizing Codelco 40/1 and Vicente 20/1

    Sizing Codelco is my main bet in the race. He is nicely under the radar. Three disappointing runs in the autumn have seen to that but he has the rare distinction of being a British-trained winner of a big Irish handicap, taking the Pat Taaffe at Punchestown in April. Given the disadvantageous handicapping terms our raiders face when attempting to take on the Irish on their own territory, it was an excellent performance and he’s only 4lbs higher here. SFP is clear top on my figures but only merits a saver due to his price and patchy record this season. Wakanda must go well too, I imagine. I thought that tight finish at Doncaster was one fought out by a group of well-handicapped horses and his 3lbs rise is very lenient. He has come in from 40/1 to 16s in recent days so someone else has clearly latched on to him. I presume he is high up Timeform’s figures. However, Danny Cook has opted for stablemate Vintage Clouds whose chance doesn’t seem obvious. He in turn carries the owner’s second colours, the first being worn by Sam T-D on Vicente. Nicholls has always said this horse needs good ground, hence his excellent record in the Scottish National but he put up a career peak first time up this season here when failing by a neck to peg back Perfect Candidate in very soft. That suggested to me he might just be a much better animal this season. He unseated in the Welsh National and runs here off the same mark, up just a pound from before.

    3.30 John Constable 100/1 and Ch'tibello 50/1

    Again, I'm on both ages ago with the guarantees so I'm comfortable even if their chances are maybe compromised by the ground. They're not as far behind the main contenders as the prices suggest.

    5.30 Ibis Du Rheu 25/1

    One of my savers in the race, looks a season-long plot among race full of them.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #774
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Of yesterday's hopefuls only Ibis gave me a run for my money although Sizing Codelco ran great for a circuit before jumping errors cost him dear.

    Onwards and upwards...

    2.50 Stowaway Magic 33/1, Abbyssial 33/1, Jeannot De Nonant 50/1, Mischievous Max 25/1

    I make no apologies for taking four here. My main bet is Max Dynamite but these strike me as much too long for their form. With six places on offer I can't let them go unbacked.

    3.30 Ar Mad 33/1 and God's Own 33/1, both w/o Altior.

    Both may be in decline - today we find out for sure - but on their best form they have better chances [on my figures] than Special Tiara, Politologue, Charbel and Ordinary World. If one of Douvan or Min blows out...

    5.30 Rev f/c Rhinestone and Blackbow

    Not sure if combined it will pay more than 20/1 but the straight forecast almost certainly will.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #775
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Tom George's comments make it sound like God's Own is only there for the run. Ah well...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #776
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Well, I got a right run for my money from Stowaway Magic there. No complaints, even if he maybe did do a fraction too much through the race. Fine margins when the ones that raced not far behind you finish just in front of you.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #777
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    Pertemps 2:10 Thursday - Taj Badalandabad -Inconsistent type, but talented on his day. He's at the bottom of the handicap. He should never be 40/1. I'm keeping a market check on him to see if he is supported in the betting. I think he could run into a place here, so if anyone's interested get the best each way terms for yourselves. Definately watch the betting too.
    Last edited by Marb; 14th March 2018 at 4:29 PM.

  20. #778
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Well, I got a right run for my money from Stowaway Magic there. No complaints, even if he maybe did do a fraction too much through the race. Fine margins when the ones that raced not far behind you finish just in front of you.
    Better than the one I got! Well done. River Frost dissapointed, but swiftly moving on...

  21. #779
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    3.30 Ar Mad 33/1 and God's Own 33/1, both w/o Altior.

    Both may be in decline - today we find out for sure - but on their best form they have better chances [on my figures] than Special Tiara, Politologue, Charbel and Ordinary World. If one of Douvan or Min blows out...
    Oh Min, why couldn't you just have pulled a sickie
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  23. #780
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    One horse who could run a big race at a price in the JLT is Snow Falcon.

    He was travelling really well along with Monalee in the same race as Invitation Only but trying to keep tabs on Monalee is a tough ask.

    It took it's toll late on but not until the very last fence.

    I can see him running a similar race today and more than a few of these have their quirks.

    A good solid EW chance at 20 on the machine and would suggest a small wager at 7.8 to be in the first 2
    Formely Fist of Fury

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