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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #641
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    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    Ex Patriot is trained relatively close to me -the trainers partner is the brains behind the operation and in my opinion they are one of the better small yards in Ireland.It won at Limerick over Christmas and for a fact wasn't fancied when it ran at Punchestown on New Years Eve.There is no big plot here but the horse could run well-especially if Rachel Blackmore gives it a sympathetic ride.
    After watching the race today,ive just done EX PATRIOT ew for the coral cup. 33/1 NRNB

  2. #642
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Total Stake: £15.00 Pot. Win: £449,028.45

    My Bets
    MultiplesStake per Bet
    13:50 Naas 28th Jan
    Tandem Win 33/1
    15:40 Sedge 28th Jan
    Christmas Twenty Win 25/1
    15:50 Naas 28th Jan
    Asitsohappens Win 25/1
    16:20 Naas 28th Jan
    Smoking Gun Win 33/1

    0.5
    £449,028.45
    Lucky 15 (£0.50 x 15) EW
    Bet Ref: O/6561***/*******

    Here's a life changing bet - I can make a case for all of them having a chance but will probably be lucky to get one placed Going out today so won't know the results until tonight.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  4. #643
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    Good luck, Chef.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    PRICEWISE2008 (28th January 2018)

  6. #644
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Tandem NR but all the best with those, Chef.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. #645
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    By the way, anybody know if Betfred's Lucky 15 bonuses apply to online bets?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Some time since I did a L15 with Betfred but I’m sure some kind of bonus was paid. The bet would have been placed on mobile


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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    By the way, anybody know if Betfred's Lucky 15 bonuses apply to online bets?
    Des you should get the treble the odds 1 winner I think but I'm fairly sure they are no longer best odds guaranteed and they always seem to be a fair way shorter on prices of outsiders. They may still do Best Odds on some specified races I don't know I stopped dealing with them shortly after they stopped B.O.G as standard.
    Last edited by Danny; 28th January 2018 at 12:12 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  10. #648
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just to compound the idea of the longshot...

    I've just taken an each-way double (NRNB/BOG) on Cliffs Of Dover (Champion Hurdle) and Saphir Du Rheu (Gold Cup), both at 66/1.

    The more mathematically astute will not need a calculator to work out that it would pay 4488/1 so no real prospect of it succeeding. The place portion pays 305/1 which appeals as value.

    Not a life-changing outcome if successful but I was just wondering 'why not?'.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Just to compound the idea of the longshot...

    I've just taken an each-way double (NRNB/BOG) on Cliffs Of Dover (Champion Hurdle) and Saphir Du Rheu (Gold Cup), both at 66/1.

    The more mathematically astute will not need a calculator to work out that it would pay 4488/1 so no real prospect of it succeeding. The place portion pays 305/1 which appeals as value.

    Not a life-changing outcome if successful but I was just wondering 'why not?'.
    That's the spirit Des ! Love it, and well worth a crack !
    Last edited by Danny; 28th January 2018 at 1:09 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  13. #650
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    That's the spirit Des !
    I think I've been over-imbibing in the spirit, Danny...

    I've just added Debuchet (Supreme) at 33/1 to those two. £7 ew treble takes out a million for the win portion (just short of £20k for the places).

    If Saphir Du Rheu completes the treble I don't expect anyone will hear from me again.

    Not even Mrs O
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    Haha I'm in a similar situation myself Des. I get a bit carried away with these things. I promise myself every year that I won't do too much ante-post and every year I seem to get more and more involved haha sucker for punishment
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  15. #652
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Total Stake: £15.00 Pot. Win: £449,028.45

    My Bets
    MultiplesStake per Bet
    13:50 Naas 28th Jan
    Tandem Win 33/1
    15:40 Sedge 28th Jan
    Christmas Twenty Win 25/1
    15:50 Naas 28th Jan
    Asitsohappens Win 25/1
    16:20 Naas 28th Jan
    Smoking Gun Win 33/1

    0.5
    £449,028.45
    Lucky 15 (£0.50 x 15) EW
    Bet Ref: O/6561***/*******

    Here's a life changing bet - I can make a case for all of them having a chance but will probably be lucky to get one placed Going out today so won't know the results until tonight.
    I think it's fair to say the ones that did run outran their long odds, which is the purpose of the thread after all.

    A nice place at a good price (should cover outlay for the day) and two other good performances.

    Nice work, Chef.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #653
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I think it's fair to say the ones that did run outran their long odds, which is the purpose of the thread after all.

    A nice place at a good price (should cover outlay for the day) and two other good performances.

    Nice work, Chef.
    Yes back to work tomorrow but a profit made as I only backed the two I did in the write ups in e/way singles and an e/way double. The e/way lucky 15 was the dream life changing bet. Asitsohappens didn't even qualify for the thread at the time of posting(edit - it did qualify but was backed down to 14/1)

    Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way
    V
    13:50 LIMESTONE LAD GRADE 3 HURDLE 2m - Each Way
    Tandem
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
    P
    15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
    25/1
    Christmas Twenty
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    L
    15:50 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f - Each Way
    14/1
    Asitsohappens
    25/1
    E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
    L
    16:20 NH FLAT 2m 3f - Each Way
    33/1
    Smoking Gun
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
    Stake:
    £15.00
    Returns:
    £8.60
    Bet ID: O/6561083/******
    ----------------------------------------------------------

    Boom! You have won £38.00
    Doubles (x2) Each Way
    P
    15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
    25/1
    Christmas Twenty
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    V
    13:50 LIMESTONE LAD GRADE 3 HURDLE 2m - Each Way
    Tandem
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
    Stake:
    £10.00
    Returns:
    £38.00
    Bet ID: O/6561083/******

    Single Each Way
    V
    13:50 LIMESTONE LAD GRADE 3 HURDLE 2m - Each Way
    Tandem
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
    Stake:
    £10.00
    Returns:
    £10.00
    Bet ID: O/6561083/******

    Boom! You have won £19.00
    Single Each Way
    P
    15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
    25/1
    Christmas Twenty
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    Stake:
    £5.00
    Returns:
    £19.00
    Bet ID: O/6561083/******

    Boom! You have won £22.80
    Single Each Way
    P
    15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
    25/1
    Christmas Twenty
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    Stake:
    £6.00
    Returns:
    £22.80
    Bet ID: O/6561083/******
    Last edited by swedish chef; 28th January 2018 at 9:36 PM.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  17. #654
    Senior Member TheBear's Avatar
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    The Long Shot Thread

    My favourite thread at the minute. Awesome stuff chef. Quite extreme hold up tactics for Christmas Twenty. Could’ve been so much better if ridden with a bit more belief.


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    Last edited by TheBear; 28th January 2018 at 9:39 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBear View Post
    My favourite thread at the minute. Awesome stuff chef. Quite extreme hold up tactics for Christmas Twenty. Could’ve been so much better if ridden with a bit more belief.


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    He was a horse who had probably lost his confidence but the ability was there, at least in a race of that standard.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  19. #656
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Plumpton 4.25 Cassivellaunus backed at 100/1 although 80/1 best price now
    The time of his last race I think was very good for the going and already there are signs it was a good race and may pay to follow runners from it. My selection finished 9th btn 38L.
    Miss Tynte – who was held up in midfield but fell at the 5th finished 2nd on her next start
    Mr Magil who was tailed off last – led to 3 out on his next start before weakening over 3f further.
    Abbey Street – who was 10th btn 48L – finished 2nd on his next start in a slightly better h’cap than this.
    Age Of Wisdom – who finished 7th btn 33L – won over 2m on the all weather on his next start, although he was entitled to at 1/5.
    My one worry is the selection had a hard race but that is offset by the odds today. He may race prominently enough to get in a decent lay for a free bet?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  21. #657
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    Haven'nt seen the race, only listened to it, but Sixties Icon was a fast finishing third in that race. He's got to win a race at Plumpton one day.

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    I reckon Trans Wood can out run odds of 40/1 in the 2:55 at Punchestown tomorrow. She showed ability when second to Roja Dove on her first start in a handicap hurdle, and is quite better off at the weights, especially if you include the 7 pound claimer, which Roja Dove, (who is generally a 9/1 chance), doesn't have. So I'll give Trans Wood one more chance to show something like her best form. There's a hot favourite it has to be said, so possibly Trans Wood might be one to back to finish placed. I can't guarantee anything but I think she can run well if on a going day.
    Last edited by Marb; 29th January 2018 at 8:47 PM.

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  24. #659
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    I'll try that one, Marb. Down to £2 in my betting account now but did get the winner of the Hunter Chase [albeit using the pin sticking method!].

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    £1 each way at 40's then, Moe! She could be a 12/1 chance by the off, you never know!
    Last edited by Marb; 29th January 2018 at 9:35 PM.

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