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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #621
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Six quid more-or-less. Please note that this is not based on any official exchange-rate.
    Cheers, nice returning that comes in!!
    Unlucky with yours Chef. Cruising for the first mile and half then found nothing.
    Keep up the good work though. More winners in this then the famous 'Will Win' thread.

  2. #622
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    For the uneducated. What's a handful of Kopeks? Best of luck with this. Just can't see past Mount Mews myself so not backed it. Best of luck though.
    Just saw that it got beat..thought it was 2.55. Idiot.

  3. #623
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Real haymaker this one.

    I've had a handful of kopeks on Native Gamut, in the 4-runner novice chase at Donny at 200/1 (888).

    Mount Mews is a worthy fave, but is upped significantly in trip to 3m for the first time, having never raced a yard beyond 2m3f beforehand. There are maybe some stamina doubts.

    Robbin'hannon is one of my tracker horses, but he's having his first chase run under Rules, and might not like the Soft ground.

    Wotzizname is probably the most solid option in the race, so I'm guessing I hope he runs-out, or the jockey falls off at some stage.

    The selection is a winning-pointer, whose best form is running North Hill Harvey to 15L in a 3m PTP, which gives me just a slither of hope, that he might not be completely and utterly useless.
    I put in a trade at 20.0 and it traded at 21.0
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  4. #624
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Should have put a trade in @ 22.0 - hth

    (in all seriousness - bloody typical!)
    Last edited by 2017diary; 26th January 2018 at 5:03 PM.

  6. #626
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    I've had a little interest in the Cleeve on the Irish raider Ex patriot 33/1 in the Cleeve. I'm not quite sure what to expect from it on its first try at the trip but the bet is more based on the opposition. Ex patriot at least seems at home under testing conditions and just the mere fact they've bothered to send it over says they must think something of it. Some of these won't be so at home in testing conditions and others like Wholestone and The Worlds end I've never been convinced that they see out the trip at this level. Agrapart was one I considered at first because I'd saw him coming late and fast against Wholestone over a shorter trip at Cheltenham last time. Though he has been soundly beaten at 3 mile trips on the 2 occasions at which he's tried it. Which made me think was he flattered by his late progress last time and was it just a case that Wholestone himself was stopping.

    I could here cases for Finians Oscar, Colins sister and Beer Goggles but at the prices they make little appeal and I'd rather take a chance on the could be anything type from Ireland although it will only be as they say for a couple of bhat.

    The other race I was looking at was the Cotswolds having already taken an interest earlier in the week on the Last Samuri e/w as I was expecting the field to cut up down to 2 places but still 8 runners atm. With a decent position held I was looking for a bit of a saver and come up a bit short. Completely unconvinced with Bristol de mai whether he's ulcerated at Christmas or whatever plain and simple until he produces something away from Haydock I can't really take him seriously at a short price. Tea for Two has the quality I think but has never really done much on the course and only a month on from running a big one in the KG will it fancy the slog ? I doubt it.Another one who hasn't run well on his visits here is Definitely red. I'm not quite sure what to make of him he was awful in the Charlie Hall where the trainer blamed the soft ground (and why not it doesn't talk back) before hacking up at Aintree on utterly abysmal ground so make of that what you will. I think that win ode more to the fact that Cloudy dream didn't get home one bit after travelling like a monster all the way around. The other 2 behind have achieved the square route of zilch this season. SFP is lowly rated I still think he's got some in hand over this CD although I don't think he'll be suited by really testing conditions. I'm hoping he doesn't screw up his handicap mark as I'm on Ante-post for the Ultima so maybe I'm biased. American still has a lot of questions to answer and this race is practically first time out after pulling up in the Hennessey not exactly ideal for this slog you'd want to be race fit.

    Which leaves me 2 horses 33/1 (possibly bigger in the morning ) In the shape of Theatre guide and Perfect Candidate. At this point I call to the Mrs ask her to gaze into my ear to see If I've lost my mind. In Theatre guides last 2 runs he's come 3rd in the Whitbread and 3rd in the Badger Ales from top weight in those competitive handicaps and has since had a wind op. He has some sort of form around Chetenham when he and Perfect Candidate locked horns finishing 1st and 2nd with a nose separating them. Perfect Candidate just held off the late charge of Vicente here earlier in the season over 3m3f so he's a pretty resolute stayer. He dissapointed at Sandown next time but is tried here in first time blinkers.

    They are both now a bigger price than SFP both are superior on OR's and both seemingly more able to adapt to testing conditions and both resolute stayers. There are worse claims at lesser prices. you could back both e/w and still make a profit if just one snares a place. Personally though I may just play the combis with the Samuri.
    Last edited by Danny; 26th January 2018 at 10:57 PM.
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  8. #627
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    Just thought I will have another small interest in Ultra Gold in the 2m4f Handicap he's a 20/1 poke now so he qualifies but I'm holding off backing him because he will need the ground to be very soft so hoping they have a bit more rain in the morning. I also feel he'll probably drift a bit in the morning. He put up a cracking effort behind Gas line Boy last time at Aintree and got raised 1lb he's not getting any younger but if the ground is very testing then he'd be right at home.

    He and the others I've put up are very small interests so I wouldn't put too much faith in them.
    Last edited by Danny; 26th January 2018 at 11:06 PM.
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    Ex-Patriot also of interest to me, upped in trip.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  10. #629
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    Oi Oi ! Two complete fruitcakes !
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    Ex Patriot is trained relatively close to me -the trainers partner is the brains behind the operation and in my opinion they are one of the better small yards in Ireland.It won at Limerick over Christmas and for a fact wasn't fancied when it ran at Punchestown on New Years Eve.There is no big plot here but the horse could run well-especially if Rachel Blackmore gives it a sympathetic ride.

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  13. #631
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    Not that I want to worry you two boys, but I also think Ex Patriot is a stonking ew bet today.

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    Three qualifiers today. I thought it might be one more but it has shortened up a little this morning.

    Chel 1.15 - Solstice Star 22/1 - He appears to be coming along gently over fences and was an excellent second in the Imperial Cup of 2016 off 134. He followed it up with an improved run off 140 against Mister Miyagi here at the April meeting of that season. He could be lobbed in if he can translate that ability to fences before taking into account any normal improvement. He’s a nice enough price to justify the risk but isn't the main bet in the race.

    Chel 1.50 - Casse Tete 33/1 - Casse Tete is much more speculative than my other bets in the race at longer odds. He only came over from France this time last year and after three moderate runs ran away with the Burnt Oak & Special Cargo at Sandown by no fewer than 27 lengths. He jumped consistently left at Ascot first time up this season so this track might suit him a bit better.

    Chel 4.10 - Eddiemaurice 25/1 - again not the main bet but not without a chance. Eddiemaurice had a go at chasing this season but reverted to hurdles the last twice, being beaten not far by two Henderson handicappers both of which have sound claims for the Betfair Hurdle. He got right back to his best last time so has to have a chance here.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Just thought I will have another small interest in Ultra Gold in the 2m4f Handicap he's a 20/1 poke now so he qualifies but I'm holding off backing him because he will need the ground to be very soft so hoping they have a bit more rain in the morning. I also feel he'll probably drift a bit in the morning. He put up a cracking effort behind Gas line Boy last time at Aintree and got raised 1lb he's not getting any younger but if the ground is very testing then he'd be right at home.

    He and the others I've put up are very small interests so I wouldn't put too much faith in them.
    Drifted as expected to 33/1 so worth a small rattle now.

    Must Meet a lady 22/1 put up 6lb for winning over CD last time out but there was certainly room for improvement. Jumping mistakes and slightly hampered when winning. An unreliable sort but at the price another for a minimum sort of bet.
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    Fairyhouse 2.45 Alletrix 40/1 - probably wants further but is joint third top rated on RPR's - On her last start she was coming to challenge when fell two out over course in a race won by a horse she beat a distance 3 races ago. She looks to be improving and looks over priced so worth a speculative small e/way.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  20. #635
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    Well todays effort was a gigantic pile of crap ! That is all.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Fairyhouse 2.45 Alletrix 40/1 - probably wants further but is joint third top rated on RPR's - On her last start she was coming to challenge when fell two out over course in a race won by a horse she beat a distance 3 races ago. She looks to be improving and looks over priced so worth a speculative small e/way.
    Incredible again Chef.

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  23. #637
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    Ditto mate I haven't backed it again and took no notice of things in Ireland today but another cracking shout !
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Cheers, Chef. Stuck some coffee money on ew at 40s and the place return is my only return on on a heavy betting day in which nothing went right for me.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Sunday - Sedgefield 3.40 Christmas Twenty 25/1 general - small e/way advised - Just over 2 years ago he split Charbel and Mr Mix off levels in a novice hurdle. Has run well over distance and going in a slightly better race off 13lbs higher. Changed trainer and since then has gone chasing 8 times earning remarks such as, jumped slowly, not fluent, mistake, blundered, PU, UR and fell. He now returns to hurdles off a mark 17lb lower than his last run over these obstacles. 'IF' he hasn't fallen out of love with the game he could be well h'capped?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  29. #640
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    Sunday - Naas 1.50 Tandem 33/1 - another small speculative e/way as not sure if he will handle the ground. Rated 104 on the flat. Hasn't run over hurdles for 2 1/2 years but has had 6 races over hurdles never out of the first 5 including 1 win - 2 x 3rd's - 2 x 4ths and a 5th in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. Two of the top 4 in the betting may have had knocks to their form today with the run Ex Patriot? The selection is also entered in the big Coral Hurdle handicap at Leopardstown next weekend and probably needs a penalty to get in. However, I'm unsure if he would get a penalty for winning this race. I know in some cases you can get a 7lb penalty for winning a grade 3 but unsure if this is the case.
    Shrewd trainer who has 3 wins and 3 places from 13 jump runs this season.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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