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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #561
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    Unlucky with Fine Rightly. Looked all over the winner at the back of 2 out.

  2. #562
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
    BBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM!! Easiest winner of the day - Get in!
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
    I absolutely bow to that shizzle ! Turned my day around mate cheers !
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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  5. #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
    Nice!

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  7. #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
    Played Chef.

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  9. #566
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Fvckin' missed it!! How on earth did I do that?

    Brilliant, Chef. Many congratulations and another belter for the thread.

    Just checked. I was out shovelling snow for a while earlier. That fvckin' snow has cost me plenty!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th January 2018 at 5:32 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  11. #567
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    It was that far back to the rest I had a bit of a wait to see if I'd had it right off unfortunately not but has still put me up on a day when I was down.

    Apollo Creed (8)
    Bruichladdich (7)
    Donna's Diamond (4)
    Southfield Royale (3)
    Tote Trifecta, 24 bets * £0.50

    Damn you Shelford, you boat !
    Last edited by Danny; 20th January 2018 at 6:22 PM.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  12. #568
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
    Splendid stuff chef - that explains the healthy state of my betfair balance!!

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  14. #569
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    I've got one for today.

    Dragon Tattoo - 8.45 Chelmsford - 25/1.

    Don't get me wrong this filly looks moderate based on her handicap runs to date but I like her chance today. Down to a mark of 50 with the excellent Nicola Currie taking 5 more off.

    That said she horse must up her game. I'm interested in the form of the run behind Augenblick at Newcastle back in November. Beaten 5l or so with the winner now rated 80. The Tutty's horse that finished 2l ahead now rated 68 and the Easterby horse just behind ran fairly at York and has a mark of 65.

    Obviously a fair bit of guesswork with the marks of these inexperienced horses but if the handicapper has them in the right ball park then Dragon Tattoo sure ran to something resembling 65 that day. Another run to that sort of level gives her a great chance here.

    Bit encouraged that Hugo Palmer is continuing with her for one of his early supporting owners. I just think 25s a fair stab and if we see a drift then one to take a chance on.
    4th, beaten 1.5l after being nicely enough backed.

    Close but no cigar.

  15. #570
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    Decent effort Dan. Fine line sometimes between being a genius and walking away with empty pockets. The most testing game in the world imo which is why I love it and bloody hate it at the same time. Its enough to send you puddled some days.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  16. #571
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    Well done, Chef.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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  18. #572
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    That's a fantastic shout Chef. Particularly after the long layoff.

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  20. #573
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    Thurles 2.20 Jazz Ranger 33/1 general - was running a cracker over course and going but 1/2 a mile further in a big field handicap in what looked a good time - but took a heavy fall 2 out when challenging, and was banged into by another horse when he got up. I hoping poor display l/t/o was because he was sent out to race again only 2 weeks later. Having had 6 1/2 weeks rest since and the booking of Rachel Blackmore, I'm hopeful he'll be thereabouts.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  22. #574
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Thurles 2.20 Jazz Ranger 33/1 general - was running a cracker over course and going but 1/2 a mile further in a big field handicap in what looked a good time - but took a heavy fall 2 out when challenging, and was banged into by another horse when he got up. I hoping poor display l/t/o was because he was sent out to race again only 2 weeks later. Having had 6 1/2 weeks rest since and the booking of Rachel Blackmore, I'm hopeful he'll be thereabouts.
    Just missed out on a place but I covered my stake with 4 places for a free bet.
    4 to be placed
    Matched betsOrder by matched date
    Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
    Jazz Ranger6 £2.00 £10.00
    Ref: 114235634797Matched: 14:08 21-Jan-18
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  24. #575
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    Better than losing, Chef! You're on a bit of a roll these days. Keep it going. Keep 'em coming!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  26. #576
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Another ante-post toe in the water for the Betfair Hurdle:

    Gwafa 80+ at Betfair

    As with Cliffs Of Dover earlier in the week, the hope is that he stays in the race as long as possible, gradually shortening as the race approaches and giving me the chance to lay off at shorter and have bets to no down side.

    Gwafa has ‘only’ been off since early last season but was rated 149 when last seen over hurdles (Oct 2016) when he was 2/1f to give the then 155-rated winner Hargam 4lbs yet he gets in here off just 140. He made a promising comeback on the AW recently and is generally 50/1 with the other bookmakers. On my figures his best form is as good as anything else at the top of the betting.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Was away from home with a rubbish ipad that made it difficult to study yesterdays racing, so put ew's on all the horses on this thread yesterday. After the disappointment of Sheena Wests horse coming down at the last [I did back that at 50/1 as she'd mentioned it on her facebook page the day before, and I tend to back her horses blind; ditto Pam Slys']] I was well chuffed to look at the results later that day to see Donnas Diamond had won. Many thanks for that. I do like to back horses that have been off the track for a while and hate it when I miss one.

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  30. #578
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    Going to try 2 tomorrow at Wolves. Each way singles and double.

    5.50 - Argent Knight 20/1 (365 & Ladbrokes)

    Have to go back in his form, think he's had some time off injured more recently. Basically the argument is that this is 3rd run back from the layoff. Class 5 should be well within his compass. Trip could be slightly sharp and so I'd hope to see him plugging on at the death. The mark is very fair.

    6.50 Gealach Ghorm 20/1 generally

    Looked a non-stayer last time out and the drop back to the 9.5f will hopefully suit. Handicap mark should be workable and hopefully from what is a decent draw I'm hoping we can get a decent early position and go from there.

    The worry is that we get 2 pulled out and end up at EW 1-2.

    Good luck all.

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  32. #579
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Monday
    Fakenham 1.55 Pri Massini 28/1 general - Won a PTP just over two years ago over distance and going, but hasn't been seen since - The 2nd that day Woods Well achieved a rating of 134 on his first season under rules and the 3rd Hurricane Dylan had one run in a NHF race btn 6L by Geordie Des Champs rated o/r 140 now. Shame there are only 6 runners but if the horse is over his problems he may have the ability to give his stablemate the fav a race, especially with the 7lb claimer on board, Fergus Gregory (2 wins from last 3 runs for trainer). He's getting nearly a stone off his stablemate and his price tempts me to have a go.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  34. #580
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Monday
    Fakenham 1.55 Pri Massini 28/1 general - Won a PTP just over two years ago over distance and going, but hasn't been seen since - The 2nd that day Woods Well achieved a rating of 134 on his first season under rules and the 3rd Hurricane Dylan had one run in a NHF race btn 6L by Geordie Des Champs rated o/r 140 now. Shame there are only 6 runners but if the horse is over his problems he may have the ability to give his stablemate the fav a race, especially with the 7lb claimer on board, Fergus Gregory (2 wins from last 3 runs for trainer). He's getting nearly a stone off his stablemate and his price tempts me to have a go.
    Good luck. Looks overpriced given the first season form of his trainer and the horse's early achievement.

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