Balklion looked a non stayer in the National last year, very similar to Big Fella Thanks.
Balklion looked a non stayer in the National last year, very similar to Big Fella Thanks.
Danny (17th January 2018)
His run last year appears to have split opinion.
I'm in your camp tiggers but the brother puts him in the same camp as Hedgehunter's first attempt in so far as he thought he ran with the choke out most of the way and didn't get home for that reason. More amenable to restraint the following year HH hacked up and the brother cleaned up (for him!).
NTD appears to be of the opinion that he went for home too soon last year and, if held on to for longer, can get home better. That's probably true but I can't see him being handicapped to have any serious chance.
If people can check last year's race, look how effortlessly OFA got into the race from off the pace, quite a rare feat in a modern National, and looks at how a closely grouped field turning for home were strung out at the line. I would have put OFA in the Gold Cup with a chance after that performance.
There's some slight chance, I suppose, that there might be another OFA lurking, waiting to put up a Warwick Classic type of performance ahead of getting in off a favourable weight/rating.
Right now, though, Blaklion just wouldn't be on my radar for the race.
But I reserve the right to change my mind
Illegitimi non carborundum
She gets in off the bottom weight on a mark of 80. The ground should be heavy enough, but that's the same for all of them. I feel the distance of 2m4f, on a galloping, testing track will be more to her liking. The jumping-left issue could have been down to not having done much racing the past 12 months or so. This may not be as big an impediment as first seemed the case.
Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2018 at 4:28 PM.
Don't read too much into the marks difference between the UK and Ireland. The Irish are on average about 6lbs lower than in the UK (up to something like 130) so maybe 2lbs at best better, probably accounted for by being dropped for that last run. In other words she might still only be 6lbs lower, ie the norm.
Good luck. Not my kind of race so I'll check the result later and hope to see you've won.
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Marb (16th January 2018)
I've added to my Cheltenham a/p portfolio this morning.
I've taken 33/1 Debuchet (NRNB/BOG, so no harm done) for the Supreme.
I think the Bumper form looks good. Debuchet was backed on the day and it's four times the price of the Henderson horse (Claimetc) which he beat.
But I haven't gone into any form in detail yet.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Cheers, Maurice. I know you dont get involved often in these races. I won't be betting too much, but I will definitely stick her in tomorrows each Trixie! She's a decent each way chance.
Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2018 at 4:29 PM.
Yep......... A short priced jolly in the line-up, so looks as if everything-else is playing for places, including De Danu's Bach, but I don't mind taking 12.5 / 1, that she runs a place.
Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2018 at 9:04 PM.
If you're ruling out the chance that she isn't going to win you're only getting 6.25/1 that she places.
Might be an idea to check for place-only odds. You might get 10/1 or better that way.
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Whilst I'd never take a view that something is rock solid and that everything else is playing for places just because its a short price as short priced horses get turned over every day. Occasionally you do end up with a situation where you fancy one strong e/w but think the favourite will win. As Des suggests a place bet only is the better option but I'd also suggest that in that situation its always a worth playing the forecast or the exacta which ever you prefer.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Copied from the Champion Hurdle thread in the light of the entries being published:
The one that caught my eye in that list is Cliffs Of Dover for Nicholls.
Considering he trains the likes of Old Guard, a horse not far off 160, and didn't even enter him for the race, as well as so many other decent hurdlers in the stable, it's eyecatching - to me at any rate! - that he's entered the 145-rated Cliffs Of Dover who has been off for a full year.
Nicholls presumably rates him a 160+ hurdler so I've taken him ante-post for the Betfair Hurdle at prices in the 30s. He might not get there but if he turns up on the day it's unlikely he'll be that kind of price.
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Looks a tough day to find a long shot for tomorrow I've been through the Haydock and Ascot cards for tomorrow and came up with zilch. However thought I'd give this a mention as Ch'tibello lines up for the Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock tomorrow should the meeting go ahead. Since posting CT has gone 40/1 in places NRNB and I've included him in a few more smaller e/w doubles and multi's. Whilst I expect him to win tomorrow I doubt the race will have little bearing on how he performs in the big one which will be a totally different test. If he wins well as I'd expect he will do then he might shorten up a bit but not dramatically. I've actually had a decent bet on him for tomorrow at 3's under ante-post rules as I expected Call me Lord wouldn't show. Its a rare event that I back one at short odds and rarer than hens teeth that I win when I do. So perhaps I've put the mockers on it but he'll cover about half of my ante-post layout for the festival so far if he does oblige, fingers crossed. I think he'd be my first winner at a price under 5/1 since James Bowen was just a thought in his old mans ball bag so it my go a way to curing my aversion to backing short priced beasts which is a problem I have to get over at some point.
Be interested to see if what anyone else can find at these meets as I'm clueless to find a 20/1 + !
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
I do have a 20/1 shot for tomorrow but I'll post it once the money's on.
I also took Ch'tibello for the Champion Hurdle. From my preview of tomorrow's racing:
There has to be a good chance Haydock won't beat the weather, though.I don’t want to risk backing Ch’tibello in this with the conditions as they are so I’m leaving the race alone. It may be that Clyne goes best but I’d be disappointed if he proved good enough to win a Champion Hurdle trial. I’ve backed Ch’tibello, though, for the Champion Hurdle itself at 70 on the exchange and ew at 33/1 (NRNB & BOG) as I don’t believe he was off an inch last time yet arguably put up a career best. I suspect he’s a 165+ horse waiting to happen and that would have been good enough for second in last season’s race.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 19th January 2018 at 7:29 PM.
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I've got one for today.
Dragon Tattoo - 8.45 Chelmsford - 25/1.
Don't get me wrong this filly looks moderate based on her handicap runs to date but I like her chance today. Down to a mark of 50 with the excellent Nicola Currie taking 5 more off.
That said she horse must up her game. I'm interested in the form of the run behind Augenblick at Newcastle back in November. Beaten 5l or so with the winner now rated 80. The Tutty's horse that finished 2l ahead now rated 68 and the Easterby horse just behind ran fairly at York and has a mark of 65.
Obviously a fair bit of guesswork with the marks of these inexperienced horses but if the handicapper has them in the right ball park then Dragon Tattoo sure ran to something resembling 65 that day. Another run to that sort of level gives her a great chance here.
Bit encouraged that Hugo Palmer is continuing with her for one of his early supporting owners. I just think 25s a fair stab and if we see a drift then one to take a chance on.
Desert Orchid (20th January 2018)
I haven't checked the prices since about 10am so I hope these are still available:
Asc 2.25 - Caid Du Lin 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but worth a saver. I don’t know much about the jockey but from 28 rides for Newland he’s won 6, been second 6 times, third 3 times and fourth twice. That sounds okay to me and if he’s worth half his claim he can make the horse competitive.
Hay 3.15 - Fine Rightly 25/1 - It's a bit risky but it is my main bet in the race. He stays, acts well in the ground and now seems very well handicapped on his best form. As recently as November he was beaten only 2½ lengths behind the 152-rated Clarcam in the Fortria in receipt of 3lbs over just two miles and he won a Grade 3 at Cork in bottomless ground the season before. His peak OR has been 152 so he’s been given a chance here.
Hay 3.15 - Ptit Zig 40/1 - Not my main bet in the race but Silsol ran well for the yard off a hurdling campaign in the Welsh National so Ptit Zig might be well handicapped over fences based on his hurdling ability.
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simmo (20th January 2018)
Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
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CDL pulled too hard for too long.
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Fine Rightly has winning form in soft at 3m+ so I really expected him to stay on there. Bar one mistake eight out he jumped beautifully but it did look for all the world that he was going to win easily. I'm very disappointed but I was never really happy that he was ridden from so far back in that ground. I thought for most of the last mile he might win despite that.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th January 2018 at 4:28 PM.
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