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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #541
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Balklion looked a non stayer in the National last year, very similar to Big Fella Thanks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Hi Danny,i went into a w.hills shop to get some of that 40/1 but they had changed it that morning to 33s nrnb.

    Surely Blacklion will be topweight in the national what with the 9lb rise plus phil smiths aintree factor added in.
    It was in the racing post cheltenham news site where it said blacklion was having a prep race in the gold cup.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Balklion looked a non stayer in the National last year, very similar to Big Fella Thanks.
    His run last year appears to have split opinion.

    I'm in your camp tiggers but the brother puts him in the same camp as Hedgehunter's first attempt in so far as he thought he ran with the choke out most of the way and didn't get home for that reason. More amenable to restraint the following year HH hacked up and the brother cleaned up (for him!).

    NTD appears to be of the opinion that he went for home too soon last year and, if held on to for longer, can get home better. That's probably true but I can't see him being handicapped to have any serious chance.

    If people can check last year's race, look how effortlessly OFA got into the race from off the pace, quite a rare feat in a modern National, and looks at how a closely grouped field turning for home were strung out at the line. I would have put OFA in the Gold Cup with a chance after that performance.

    There's some slight chance, I suppose, that there might be another OFA lurking, waiting to put up a Warwick Classic type of performance ahead of getting in off a favourable weight/rating.

    Right now, though, Blaklion just wouldn't be on my radar for the race.

    But I reserve the right to change my mind
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  5. #544
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    His run last year appears to have split opinion.

    I'm in your camp tiggers but the brother puts him in the same camp as Hedgehunter's first attempt in so far as he thought he ran with the choke out most of the way and didn't get home for that reason. More amenable to restraint the following year HH hacked up and the brother cleaned up (for him!).

    NTD appears to be of the opinion that he went for home too soon last year and, if held on to for longer, can get home better. That's probably true but I can't see him being handicapped to have any serious chance.

    If people can check last year's race, look how effortlessly OFA got into the race from off the pace, quite a rare feat in a modern National, and looks at how a closely grouped field turning for home were strung out at the line. I would have put OFA in the Gold Cup with a chance after that performance.

    There's some slight chance, I suppose, that there might be another OFA lurking, waiting to put up a Warwick Classic type of performance ahead of getting in off a favourable weight/rating.

    Right now, though, Blaklion just wouldn't be on my radar for the race.

    But I reserve the right to change my mind
    Totally agree. Thats why ive done him in the gold cup,..get in .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    We'll see tomorrow if De Dani's Bach is declared on Wednesday at Fairyhouse at 2M4F in the 1:25. The drop in distance may make sense judging by her last run, but a right handed track again? However, Fairyhouse is much more galloping & testing place so might suit her more than 3 miles at Musselburgh. She will run off a mark of 80 (8 pound lower than her U.K mark) which is excellent. She'd be worth an each way as she showed some ability the last day.
    She gets in off the bottom weight on a mark of 80. The ground should be heavy enough, but that's the same for all of them. I feel the distance of 2m4f, on a galloping, testing track will be more to her liking. The jumping-left issue could have been down to not having done much racing the past 12 months or so. This may not be as big an impediment as first seemed the case.
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2018 at 4:28 PM.

  7. #546
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Don't read too much into the marks difference between the UK and Ireland. The Irish are on average about 6lbs lower than in the UK (up to something like 130) so maybe 2lbs at best better, probably accounted for by being dropped for that last run. In other words she might still only be 6lbs lower, ie the norm.

    Good luck. Not my kind of race so I'll check the result later and hope to see you've won.
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  9. #547
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    I've added to my Cheltenham a/p portfolio this morning.

    I've taken 33/1 Debuchet (NRNB/BOG, so no harm done) for the Supreme.

    I think the Bumper form looks good. Debuchet was backed on the day and it's four times the price of the Henderson horse (Claimetc) which he beat.

    But I haven't gone into any form in detail yet.
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    Cheers, Maurice. I know you dont get involved often in these races. I won't be betting too much, but I will definitely stick her in tomorrows each Trixie! She's a decent each way chance.
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2018 at 4:29 PM.

  11. #549
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    She gets in off the bottom weight on a mark of 80. The ground should be heavy enough, but that's the same for all of them. I feel the distance of 2m4f, on a galloping, testing track will be more to her liking. The jumping-left issue could have been down to not having done much racing the past 12 months or so. This may not be as big an impediment as first seemed the case.
    De Danu's Bach 50/1 for that race tomorrow 1/4 the odds 4 places.

    Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk

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    Yep......... A short priced jolly in the line-up, so looks as if everything-else is playing for places, including De Danu's Bach, but I don't mind taking 12.5 / 1, that she runs a place.
    Last edited by Marb; 16th January 2018 at 9:04 PM.

  13. #551
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    If you're ruling out the chance that she isn't going to win you're only getting 6.25/1 that she places.

    Might be an idea to check for place-only odds. You might get 10/1 or better that way.
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  14. #552
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    Whilst I'd never take a view that something is rock solid and that everything else is playing for places just because its a short price as short priced horses get turned over every day. Occasionally you do end up with a situation where you fancy one strong e/w but think the favourite will win. As Des suggests a place bet only is the better option but I'd also suggest that in that situation its always a worth playing the forecast or the exacta which ever you prefer.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Copied from the Champion Hurdle thread in the light of the entries being published:

    The one that caught my eye in that list is Cliffs Of Dover for Nicholls.

    Considering he trains the likes of Old Guard, a horse not far off 160, and didn't even enter him for the race, as well as so many other decent hurdlers in the stable, it's eyecatching - to me at any rate! - that he's entered the 145-rated Cliffs Of Dover who has been off for a full year.

    Nicholls presumably rates him a 160+ hurdler so I've taken him ante-post for the Betfair Hurdle at prices in the 30s. He might not get there but if he turns up on the day it's unlikely he'll be that kind of price.
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  16. #554
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I've tried another one of these cheeky e/w doubles but this time with the protection of NRNB.

    Again it takes a bit of a leap of faith and neither selection would be top of my list as likely winners of their respective races but in terms of Value and trying to sneak the place money they might stand a chance.

    Gold Cup Coneygree 40/1 NRNB

    Well he looks pretty much finished in truth after pulling up on his last 2 starts. If you believe the Bradstocks whether its breathing ops,back problems or overreaches they believe they have genuine excuses for the horse. I'm not sure how much I believe but he obviously has problems. What happens between now and then ? Well perhaps he'll takes in the Denman Chase at Newbury Or Maybe the Cotswolds. He'd either run well and it would be considered a step in the right direction towards the Gold Cup or he runs awfully gets pulled up and more than likely retired in which case we get refunded. The other option maybe that he goes straight there and you pays your money you take your chance. It was only last Spring that he'd run Djackadam and Gold cup winner Sizing John very close at Punchestown after being Awol for most of the season and it could be said if he hadn't messed up the second last he'd have probably gone closer or maybe even beat them so its not like he can't go fairly well fresh. Yes his last 2 runs looked like it was game over but tht said is it any worse than the last runs of Sizing John, Our Duke , Whisper or Yorkhill ? Should it for some reason take more forgiving ?

    I personally take the view that he is probably going to struggle to make a come back but if he shows that in a prep then as said its a refund if he runs o.k or shows any signs of the green shoots of recovery then he certainly won't be a 40/1 shot against a whole host of horses with questions still to answer.

    Champion Hurdle Ch'Tibello 33/1 NRNB

    I have to admit that I did try to get this bet at 22's in the without BD market but they wouldn't accept a double I have allowed myself a single at that that price (which still counts as a selection for the long shot thread).

    Outside of BD who looks fairly solid to my mind we have a similar situation to the KG.

    Faugheen some doubts about turning up
    Melon probably in
    Yorkhill entered for everything barring Miss World
    MTOY yup
    Defi yup
    Min probably not
    Apples jade probably not
    Wicklow Brave and Mick jazz maybe but not exactly **** your pants scary
    The new one- stayers?


    Ch'tebello is next up. Without going too much into it two of the main rivals there (Melon and My tent) he met at Cheltenham fto this season he actually had travelled into the race as well as anything was actually taking quite a pull most the way around. As they turned for home he looked to be in with a winning chance travelling as well as anything, half way up the straight he got hampered and I think this cost him valuable lengths and momentum. Although the others pulled away over the last hurdle he did start to fight back right at the finish. Considering also that he'd been missing since February all things considered I think he's a fair price to reverse with the front few especially if getting a stronger pace to go at. There might be other dangers to emerge through the Handicap route or something else that pops up to ruin the party but against the current likely contenders I think he has more than a punchers chance of framing. Just a shame really that I couldn't play the double without BD as he does look fairly solid as odds on pokes go.


    £10e/w double the standard stake for these.

    Looks a tough day to find a long shot for tomorrow I've been through the Haydock and Ascot cards for tomorrow and came up with zilch. However thought I'd give this a mention as Ch'tibello lines up for the Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock tomorrow should the meeting go ahead. Since posting CT has gone 40/1 in places NRNB and I've included him in a few more smaller e/w doubles and multi's. Whilst I expect him to win tomorrow I doubt the race will have little bearing on how he performs in the big one which will be a totally different test. If he wins well as I'd expect he will do then he might shorten up a bit but not dramatically. I've actually had a decent bet on him for tomorrow at 3's under ante-post rules as I expected Call me Lord wouldn't show. Its a rare event that I back one at short odds and rarer than hens teeth that I win when I do. So perhaps I've put the mockers on it but he'll cover about half of my ante-post layout for the festival so far if he does oblige, fingers crossed. I think he'd be my first winner at a price under 5/1 since James Bowen was just a thought in his old mans ball bag so it my go a way to curing my aversion to backing short priced beasts which is a problem I have to get over at some point.

    Be interested to see if what anyone else can find at these meets as I'm clueless to find a 20/1 + !
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  17. #555
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I do have a 20/1 shot for tomorrow but I'll post it once the money's on.

    I also took Ch'tibello for the Champion Hurdle. From my preview of tomorrow's racing:

    I don’t want to risk backing Ch’tibello in this with the conditions as they are so I’m leaving the race alone. It may be that Clyne goes best but I’d be disappointed if he proved good enough to win a Champion Hurdle trial. I’ve backed Ch’tibello, though, for the Champion Hurdle itself at 70 on the exchange and ew at 33/1 (NRNB & BOG) as I don’t believe he was off an inch last time yet arguably put up a career best. I suspect he’s a 165+ horse waiting to happen and that would have been good enough for second in last season’s race.
    There has to be a good chance Haydock won't beat the weather, though.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 19th January 2018 at 7:29 PM.
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    I've got one for today.

    Dragon Tattoo - 8.45 Chelmsford - 25/1.

    Don't get me wrong this filly looks moderate based on her handicap runs to date but I like her chance today. Down to a mark of 50 with the excellent Nicola Currie taking 5 more off.

    That said she horse must up her game. I'm interested in the form of the run behind Augenblick at Newcastle back in November. Beaten 5l or so with the winner now rated 80. The Tutty's horse that finished 2l ahead now rated 68 and the Easterby horse just behind ran fairly at York and has a mark of 65.

    Obviously a fair bit of guesswork with the marks of these inexperienced horses but if the handicapper has them in the right ball park then Dragon Tattoo sure ran to something resembling 65 that day. Another run to that sort of level gives her a great chance here.

    Bit encouraged that Hugo Palmer is continuing with her for one of his early supporting owners. I just think 25s a fair stab and if we see a drift then one to take a chance on.

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  20. #557
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I haven't checked the prices since about 10am so I hope these are still available:

    Asc 2.25 - Caid Du Lin 20/1 - Not my main bet in the race but worth a saver. I don’t know much about the jockey but from 28 rides for Newland he’s won 6, been second 6 times, third 3 times and fourth twice. That sounds okay to me and if he’s worth half his claim he can make the horse competitive.

    Hay 3.15 - Fine Rightly 25/1 - It's a bit risky but it is my main bet in the race. He stays, acts well in the ground and now seems very well handicapped on his best form. As recently as November he was beaten only 2½ lengths behind the 152-rated Clarcam in the Fortria in receipt of 3lbs over just two miles and he won a Grade 3 at Cork in bottomless ground the season before. His peak OR has been 152 so he’s been given a chance here.

    Hay 3.15 - Ptit Zig 40/1 - Not my main bet in the race but Silsol ran well for the yard off a hurdling campaign in the Welsh National so Ptit Zig might be well handicapped over fences based on his hurdling ability.
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  22. #558
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Haydock 4.15 Donnas Diamond 20/1 StanJames - a good 4th over c/d/& going l/t/o in a better race - now 4lb lower. However hasn't raced for over a year.
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  24. #559
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    CDL pulled too hard for too long.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Fine Rightly has winning form in soft at 3m+ so I really expected him to stay on there. Bar one mistake eight out he jumped beautifully but it did look for all the world that he was going to win easily. I'm very disappointed but I was never really happy that he was ridden from so far back in that ground. I thought for most of the last mile he might win despite that.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th January 2018 at 4:28 PM.
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