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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #521
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Taking a chance today with Fairyhouse 1.00 Thisonesformary 80/1 generally - for rookie trainer Padraig Roche who has taken over from his father Christy. His first runner yesterday ran well to finish 5th at 100/1 and showed lots of improvement from his first run. Hopefully the trainer is keen on making a quick impression.
    Only saw this with a minute to spare but it's 237 at Betfair so surely today can't be the day?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #522
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Was really hoping one of you guys would catch the 3rd and 4th in the Fighting Fifth....beaten a long way that day but today finished 1st and 2nd at Kelso going off at huge odds they were the outsiders of the field.

    To top it off the winner reversed places with the newcastle 2nd to the tune of 17 lengths...ye canae beat that
    Formely Fist of Fury

  3. #523
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Was really hoping one of you guys would catch the 3rd and 4th in the Fighting Fifth....beaten a long way that day but today finished 1st and 2nd at Kelso going off at huge odds they were the outsiders of the field.

    To top it off the winner reversed places with the newcastle 2nd to the tune of 17 lengths...ye canae beat that
    I spotted it Tanlic but took early odds just in case and they drifted - I could of won so much more if I had been patient. Took 28.0 the winner on the machine and 120.0 the f/c either way.

    14-Jan-18
    13:48:14 13:40 Kelso
    2 - 3 / 3 - 2 - Reverse FC
    Betfair Bet ID 1:113642463969 | Placed: 14-Jan-18 12:23:23 Back 120.00 2.52 --
    299.88
    Won
    14-Jan-18
    13:46:44 13:40 Kelso
    Katgary - Win
    Betfair Bet ID 1:113642648899 | Placed: 14-Jan-18 12:24:34 Back 24.00 2.00 --
    -2.00
    Lost
    14-Jan-18
    13:46:44 13:40 Kelso
    Mirsaale - Win
    Betfair Bet ID 1:113642648900 | Placed: 14-Jan-18 12:24:34 Back 28.00 2.00 --
    54.00
    Won
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  4. #524
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Brilliant stuff..I luv it
    Formely Fist of Fury

  5. #525
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    ye canae beat that
    Last edited by Marb; 14th January 2018 at 7:09 PM.

  6. #526
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Copied from the Gold Cup thread:

    I took another ante-post bet for the Gold Cup this evening, prompted by the Bryony Frost debate.

    Saphir Du Rheu 66/1 ew NRNB & BOG

    I backed him in the Gold Cup last year as well as in the National. He used Cheltenham as a prep run for Aintree last season and I wonder if maybe they think he might have gone very close if they'd trained him seriously for it. The fact that they've now declared he won't go for the National and that Sam T-D will ride means he's still regarded as the stable's best staying chaser. If he turns up on the day he'll be no more than 33/1. If he doesn't, no harm done.
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    Outsider (15th January 2018)

  8. #527
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Used the Gold Cup as a prep? Where did you get that idea from? His main target last year was the Gold Cup not the National

    They were in 2 minds about Aintree due to his jumping but he was well in on his new rating so they threw caution to the wind and ran him.

    As you know he fell and will never go to Aintree again according to his owner

    Last year he had absolutely hacked up at Kelso and he was as fit as a fiddle for the Gold Cup running the best race of his life.

    He hasn't seen a racecourse this year and looks likely to miss Kelso and he's not a horse you could say runs well when fresh so obviously they are having major problems getting him fit

    Thank your lucky stars it's NRNB as you have a chance of getting your money back.

    The chances of him running are somewhere between nil to zero..........missing Kelso and having a racecourse gallop? Would be the first in history to pull that off
    Last edited by Tanlic; 15th January 2018 at 3:26 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  9. #528
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    They say that they are using the gold cup as a prep race for the national with BLACKLION but i cant see the logic in that.
    I think Blacklion is a good ew bet for the gold cup and i cant fancy him for the national where last year he weakened into 4th and this year will probably have 10lb more.
    If the gold cup is a prep race,what are they going to do,hunt him round at the back or give him a hard race.
    The way he was backed off the boards last time at aintree makes me think hes better than just a good hcapper.
    Ive took 33s nrnb anyway.

  10. #529
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    As long as you have the concession you're fine with that, Outsider.

    If I remember correctly, there was a bit of a discussion on here a year or two back when I suggested something would use a big race as prep for an arguably smaller race (might have been the Gold Cup ahead of the National for SDR, might have been the Hennessy ahead of something else, can't remember exactly) but I do believe it happens and I do believe in the logic of it.

    In the better race you can run one at 90% fit and end up buried. When you get to the main target 100% fit and maybe full of milkshake it's a different ball game, and since it's a lesser race it's more likely to win.

    Maybe Sam T-D felt the horse didn't really take to the fences at Aintree. Remember too, last year the National was worth nearly a quarter of a mill more than the Gold Cup yet it's 'only' a handicap.

    Blaklion almost certainly can't win a Gold Cup but the National is a handicap and in theory he should have the same chance as everything else. (No patronising intended.) I also half suspect that if Blaklion had a really serious chance in the Gold Cup, Paul Nicholls wouldn't stand in Sam T-D's way of riding the horse for his dad. But maybe that's just the romantic wishful thinker in me.
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  11. #530
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Couldn't have him then (though he ran better than I expected), DO, and can't have him now.

    Unless he gets a prep, he'll go to the Gold Cup both first-time-out and on the back of a fall - not exactly the profile I'd be wanting to get onside, and I think there are better options amongst the outers. BTW, you can back him at 100/1 with Sporting, and 80/1 with Ladbrokes, if you're inclined to have another value bet.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thanks, GH. I took the 66/1 due to the concessions.

    I think he might be going to Kelso first, as he did last season.

    He was a 170+ novice and ran to 165+ when just out for a gallop last season. I can't imagine many rank outsiders with that kind of potential but obviously it's not as straightforward as that.

    As an aside - and maybe as a Timeform fan you can confirm - the brother (a fan of the Horses to Follow book) was on the phone the other night to say Timeform rate Bristol De Mai a lot better than his finishing position in last year's Gold Cup. He said something about ground lost through the race compounded by losing at least ten lengths with a mistake at the last? If so, maybe he'll be better at the track this time around. He's still a qualifying price for this thread so I might have another look.

    I'm currently reviewing the festival recordings. I'm halfway through the Tuesday. I still think the Ultima is brilliant form but I did notice last night that SFP was a lot closer through the race than I remembered, never more than about eight lengths off the leaders. I also think he got an over-confident ride and would have won in another few strides. He might have won anyway with a couple of more fluent jumps than he produced. I'm now not so sure he was trying 100% in the Hennessy/Ladbroke or at Ascot, now that I see how far behind he was in both those races.
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  13. #532
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    A quote from last season's stable tour:

    When he won a Grade One at Aintree we thought he was going to be a superstar over fences but he just lost his way a little.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Thanks, GH. I took the 66/1 due to the concessions.

    I think he might be going to Kelso first, as he did last season.

    He was a 170+ novice and ran to 165+ when just out for a gallop last season. I can't imagine many rank outsiders with that kind of potential but obviously it's not as straightforward as that.

    As an aside - and maybe as a Timeform fan you can confirm - the brother (a fan of the Horses to Follow book) was on the phone the other night to say Timeform rate Bristol De Mai a lot better than his finishing position in last year's Gold Cup. He said something about ground lost through the race compounded by losing at least ten lengths with a mistake at the last? If so, maybe he'll be better at the track this time around. He's still a qualifying price for this thread so I might have another look.

    I'm currently reviewing the festival recordings. I'm halfway through the Tuesday. I still think the Ultima is brilliant form but I did notice last night that SFP was a lot closer through the race than I remembered, never more than about eight lengths off the leaders. I also think he got an over-confident ride and would have won in another few strides. He might have won anyway with a couple of more fluent jumps than he produced. I'm now not so sure he was trying 100% in the Hennessy/Ladbroke or at Ascot, now that I see how far behind he was in both those races.
    Chasers & Hurdlers rated SDR c161 last season.

    They rated BDM c159 last season. There's no essay (so they don't give a viewpoint in GC performance), and the only comments were that he goes on heavy, and he usually travels strongly/up with pace.

    FWIW, I reckon BDM will always look to go quite well, as he races prominently, and jumps accurately.......but he gets found-out on quicker ground. He is essentially one-paced, which is generally no issue in deep-ground, but he cannot quicken with the opposition on spring-ground. Last season's Gold Cup, and to a lesser extent, this season's KG, would tend to bear that out. I think this, more than the mistake at the last, was largely responsible for his finishing position in the Gold Cup.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 15th January 2018 at 11:52 AM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Colin Phillips (15th January 2018), Desert Orchid (15th January 2018)

  16. #534
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cheers, GH. I've texted the brother to ask him to phone me when he gets a chance to dictate the Timeform view and I'll post it here. He read it out to me the other night.

    I think the Fifty to Follow book includes the detailed analyses of the big races in essay form, as they would have appeared in the old Perspective.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    They say that they are using the gold cup as a prep race for the national with BLACKLION but i cant see the logic in that.
    I think Blacklion is a good ew bet for the gold cup and i cant fancy him for the national where last year he weakened into 4th and this year will probably have 10lb more.
    If the gold cup is a prep race,what are they going to do,hunt him round at the back or give him a hard race.
    The way he was backed off the boards last time at aintree makes me think hes better than just a good hcapper.
    Ive took 33s nrnb anyway.
    Absolutely agree with this (re-Gold cup chance v Aintree chance ) as I've already posted somewhere on the forum. I think NTD just has BDM on his brain as a world beater or at least he did do before the KG which is why he's overlooking Blaklion or was. Personally I'd have run Blaklion in the Cotswolds and found out where he was at. The plan prior to Christmas was to go to Haydock again and then onto the National I haven't seen anything since. Where have you read they plan to use the Gold cup as a prep ? I wouldn't read too much into that use of the word prep either he'll be fit enough to do himself justice if turning up. If you've got 33's NRNB that's a good bet I took some 25's myself which was the best I could get at the time and also had a bet earlier on at 40's without the protection.

    NTD said after the Becher that BL only had to find 8 lengths to win the National and under a more restrained ride that was possible which would of made perfect sense apart from the fact he's been whacked up to 161 9lb's higher than last year. I thought it was a gut reaction from NTD at the time talking without thinking and thought once the dust settled and that BDM got his colours lowered in the KG that he'd come to his senses and see the Gold Cup as the better option.
    Last edited by Danny; 15th January 2018 at 2:28 PM.
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    National weights are released in early/mid-February. Any trainer who has a horse with a serious chance, is unlikely to run him over fences beforehand, which would very-likely rule Blaklion out of the Cotswold Chase.

    FWIW, as much as I'm not a huge fan of NTD, I think Blaklion has a tremendous chance at Aintree.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    I'd agree GH that is the way NTD will go. However, he's rated 161 now yes he'd go up again if he won the Cotswolds but how much more could he go up before he'd be a serious contender for the GC ? If he got beat in the Cotswolds the handicapper may cut him some slack if he won it impressively enough to go up in the weights then what ? An 8lb rise would see him having run to 169 over the Gold Cup CD..who in there right minds would not let him take his chance ? He's only nine ? He'd probably get one shot at the Gold cup being this year and if he fails its not beyond the realms that he could have another 3 attempts in the National in years to come.
    Last edited by Danny; 15th January 2018 at 3:09 PM.
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    He can run in the Gold Cup without being penalised for Aintree. It's only running before the weights are out that is the issue.

    I think that's how he will play it with Blaklion. Run in the Gold Cup on merit (but with low expectations).......as it's in the sweet-spot as a prep-date for Aintree (where he can have high expectations, regardless of the Gold Cup finishing-position)
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Hi Danny,i went into a w.hills shop to get some of that 40/1 but they had changed it that morning to 33s nrnb.

    Surely Blacklion will be topweight in the national what with the 9lb rise plus phil smiths aintree factor added in.

  22. #540
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    He can run in the Gold Cup without being penalised for Aintree. It's only running before the weights are out that is the issue.

    I think that's how he will play it with Blaklion. Run in the Gold Cup on merit (but with low expectations).......as it's in the sweet-spot as a prep-date for Aintree (where he can have high expectations, regardless of the Gold Cup finishing-position)
    Think your right mate I'll just be happy if he lines up in the GC as he's not my main bet but the more big priced yaks I have running for me the better. As my Gold cup approach this year is throw enough **** and hope something sticks
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