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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #341
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Mister Manduro out and JC and LTV don't qualify for the thread. Swamp Fox shortening and I haven't got on yet so it looks like Snow Falcon is the only real qualifier from that post. I might stick one or two rank outsiders up in the morning before I head off.

    Meantime, I've backed one tomorrow: Nwm 4.10 Bear Valley 50/1, ew

    I can’t not back Bear Valley after backing it recently. The chances are it’s just lost the plot but it was a fair third at the Shergar Cup meeting and earlier showed better form when also third in the KGV to Atty Persse and First Nation. He’s now 6lbs better off for a head with the latter. I don’t know anything about the jockey. On the face of it, an inexperienced claimer is a negative booking but she’s 16/83 for her two main employers and is actually 2/2 for Johnston and will make this weight. I expect he'll blow out again but if I were certain in advance he would run his race I'd make him favourite.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #342
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    The one Flat race I do like to have a bet in, is the Ces - mainly due to it's place in the Jumps pattern, as a Lanzarote trial.

    Number 33 on the race-card is Friday Night Light; a modest Flat handicapper who has raced exclusively in France to date (at up to 12 furlongs), for Elle Lellouche.

    This horse was recently bought by MC Pipe Racing, and put into training with David Pipe, for whom he has his first outing tomorrow. Upped-markedly in trip, the lightly-weighted Friday Night Light will sport a first-time tongue-strap.

    Stan James offer a stand-out 50/1, which is a fair-price to be finding-out if MCP still has what it takes to plot one up.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 13th October 2017 at 4:49 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  3. #343
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I did look at that one, GH. I don't think David Pipe plots them up the way Martin used to, not one with this profile at any rate.

    He had a similar type - maybe even better - in one of the big staying races at Ascot first time up and he blew out.

    Good luck with him.

    There's another risk-laden thick piece in the race I'm taking a small interest in: Star Rider.

    A bit like today's selection, he has good form in the right kind of races but has been in rank form this season apart from a fair effort behind Thomas Hobson in the Ascot Stakes. He's back on a mark off which he won here last October. It wouldn't be beyond his trainer to have saved him for this all season.

    First Mohican has a similar chance to Who Dares Wins, I reckon, so shouldn't be 50/1 (which I've taken).

    But I do think the hurdlers will prevail.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #344
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Just a roll of the dice for interest, DO. I've no idea what any of the actual form is worth.

    I'm rather hoping Pipe Senior's icy-hand is on the tiller for this one, and that junior has little to do with it, beyond making the entry!
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  5. #345
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Friday Night Light only priced with one outfit. Not declared?
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  6. #346
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    It's filled-up now. General 40/1 chance.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  7. #347
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    A few unknown quantities in the field; Friday Night Light being one of them. Cape Caster another. PLeased to see Star Rider mentioned because I had double *'d it for some reason but not backed it. I owe you one if it wins DO!

  8. #348
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    ...I know it's aftertiming [sorry] but Gordon Lord Byron didn't deserve to start at 66/1 today.

  9. #349
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    There's another risk-laden thick piece in the race I'm taking a small interest in: Star Rider.

    A bit like today's selection, he has good form in the right kind of races but has been in rank form this season apart from a fair effort behind Thomas Hobson in the Ascot Stakes. He's back on a mark off which he won here last October. It wouldn't be beyond his trainer to have saved him for this all season.
    I have to admit he wouldn't have been my first choice Des but both of the ones I fancied are out, one failed to make the cut the other Landsman looks as if Tony Martin threw his toys out of the pram when he saw the draw. I did take a good look at this Star rider though and I thought the noticeable thing was the first time tongue tie and the way he's been running does suggest it may help. The Car park draw is a bit off putting though.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  10. #350
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    This one just about qualifies as 20/1 still available with Sportingbet and was there with Bet365 last night but I reckon Minellacelebration has more than a squeak in the 4.45 at Chepstow today. Would surely have won last time but unlucky to be brought down at the last. Improvement required to win this but that’s certainly possible as only a 7yo


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  11. #351
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Was going to throw Court Minstrel up here last night at 16/1,but he's been backed heavily over night and I'm not interested at 9's.

  12. #352
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Bollocks.

  13. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bonjers View Post
    Was going to throw Court Minstrel up here last night at 16/1,but he's been backed heavily over night and I'm not interested at 9's.
    Great shout and I feel your pain. I was on the runner up who might have won but seemed to fluff the last


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  14. #354
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Ascot 4.30 Gabriel 33/1 6 places SkyBet
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  16. #355
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Agree about Gabrial (got 40/1 but can't be arsed to go each-way).

    Other qualifiers today:

    Sheikzayedroad 22/1

    Brando 33/1

    Lancaster Bomber 80/1

    Linguistic 20/1

    Fingers crossed (no, that's not a qualifier - just, you know...)
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #356
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Long shots in conditions races are not my bag but Sir John Lavery is very overs in the QEII at 40s. This track and ground will suit him much better than Newmarket a fortnight ago and he's worth a small dart.

  18. #357
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Ascot 4.30 Gabriel 33/1 6 places SkyBet
    Would he be the only horse running today to have raced against Frankel?

  19. #358
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2017diary View Post
    Result doesn't always tell the story, went evens in running - U/L
    Traded a lot lower at the same point to day....looked the winner throughout...boom

  20. #359
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Cheltenham 3.10 Ruacana 40/1 Sportsbook 5 places
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  21. #360
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Two qualifiers for me today:

    Chel 2.00 - although I think/hope Singlefarmpayment will just be too good for this field, take him out of the equation and it’s very open but I’m a big fan of Perfect Candidate (25/1) round here so if they can eke a little bit of improvement out of him at ten years of age his strong finish up this hill could put him in with a big chance at a very nice price but is longest with SportingBet – always a concern.

    Chel 3.10 - Mr Fiftyone (22/1) had a really nice bit of form this time last year and may well have been trained subsequently with this season in mind, leading to the Grand Annual in March.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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