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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #241
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    Just flagging this one up again. Dandyleekie runs in the 3.00 at Ayr tomorrow. The sole bookie to price up has him at 16s so he doesn't qualify yet. It's fair to say though that someone will be 20s at some point before the off. I haven't backed him and I won't as I feel there's too much against him on balance and have a strong fancy in the race. I will keep an eye on the run though because he is of interest.

    For anyone interested the case for him is simple. Off 72 back down in class. His sole run over C&D was fair and better form than tomorrow's race. He needs a form revival and conditions are slowly turning back in his favour.

    That said there are a couple of concerns. The ground is advertised as good, and going off the forecast rain is unlikely. For the other please see the what are you backing thread.
    He's entered at Doncaster next Thursday evening and will very likely get soft ground.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  2. #242
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    Going to take a flyer on this one.

    Lingfield 4.20 Good Bond - 28/1

    3 runs humping top weight in open age maidens over shorter trips. Has run green each time. The 2nd run is the one that interests me. He was beaten 15l by a pair of 3yo in receipt of 7 and 11lb - these horses are now rated 75 and 79.

    Good Bond races off a mark of 50 tonight and it's a much weaker race. There are no 3 year olds sneaking in with their allowance.

    Providing we keep the 3 places I think it's a solid ew chance.

  3. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    Going to take a flyer on this one.

    Lingfield 4.20 Good Bond - 28/1

    3 runs humping top weight in open age maidens over shorter trips. Has run green each time. The 2nd run is the one that interests me. He was beaten 15l by a pair of 3yo in receipt of 7 and 11lb - these horses are now rated 75 and 79.

    Good Bond races off a mark of 50 tonight and it's a much weaker race. There are no 3 year olds sneaking in with their allowance.

    Providing we keep the 3 places I think it's a solid ew chance.
    Fair to say I expected a bit more there. Hopefully the horse isn't hurt, couldn't find anything in the stewards reports.

    Will have a bit more time for the racing over the next couple of weeks so I may chuck a few up on this thread. Hopefully can get a winner amongst them.

  4. #244
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    Just a mention to Moonlight Silver in Sandowns 4:10. Could maybe should do better with headgear on.
    Last edited by Marb; 26th July 2017 at 9:51 PM.

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    13.20 kyllachy dragon 40-1

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    Two for today. Screaming each way double 😆

    2.55 Thirsk - Archie Perkins 20/1

    I'm looking at putting a line through the last run. The run before he wasn't beaten far over course and distance. Comes into this race on better terms with Mr Wagyu, who admittedly could still be well in after being raised a solitary lb for winning a York nursery.

    6.30 York - General Alexander 18/1

    Just short of the 20s minimum but you'd like to think 20s will be available at some point.

    Lots to like. Good weight, useful apprentice taking 5 off. Trip should suit and the ground should be spot on. A lot more unexposed than some of them and this looks slightly weaker than a couple of the races he ran well in last season. I'll take a chance.

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  8. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    Two for today. Screaming each way double 😆

    2.55 Thirsk - Archie Perkins 20/1

    I'm looking at putting a line through the last run. The run before he wasn't beaten far over course and distance. Comes into this race on better terms with Mr Wagyu, who admittedly could still be well in after being raised a solitary lb for winning a York nursery.

    6.30 York - General Alexander 18/1

    Just short of the 20s minimum but you'd like to think 20s will be available at some point.

    Lots to like. Good weight, useful apprentice taking 5 off. Trip should suit and the ground should be spot on. A lot more unexposed than some of them and this looks slightly weaker than a couple of the races he ran well in last season. I'll take a chance.
    Two no shows, must try harder.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    General Alexander didn't qualify under the terms of my ******* thread
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  10. #249
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    I like Clear Water in the 2.40 at York. Missed start and met traffic last time, if he starts well and gets a clear run, think he will outrun his 33-1 odds.

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  12. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    General Alexander didn't qualify under the terms of my ******* thread
    20/1 SP.

    Run like there was an extra 0 on his price.

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    Sir Roderic in this. I like its name!

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    When all else fails, there's always the scientific approach

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    I had the right idea going for an outsider but picked the wrong horse.
    Last edited by Marb; 29th July 2017 at 3:21 PM.

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    I had a bad day today so I'll throw in dawn goddess in the last at lingfield 33-1

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    Backing outsiders at Uttoxeter today so had The Land Agent at 80/1. Absolutely no chance but when trainers put inexperienced horses up against experienced ones, I always think they might know something I don't. I think I'll know my fate quite quickly! [I think what the trainer knew was that he would pick up a few hundred quid for finishing 4th!!]. Wish I was at Uttoxeter today; the racing has been quite interesting...
    Last edited by moehat; 30th July 2017 at 4:22 PM.

  18. #256
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    Stewards' Cup - this is actually my main bet in the race.

    Perfect Pasture 50/1 (7 places with SkyBet) - I think he’s on the up and the booking of Atzeni is the real eyecatcher in the race. He’s a terrific price for one with his ratings profile and his middle draw looks ideal.

    Others in the race who 'qualify' for the thread are Aeolus (28/1) and Eastern Impact (25/1).
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  19. #257
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    Looking at this 4.10 at Yarmouth tomorrow. It's a poor race but there's one at a big price I do sort of fancy.

    Cool Echo 33/1

    This filly has various bits of form in low grade races and this is her 2nd run back from a break. She has edged down the handicap and runs off 59 here. She will have needed the comeback run and wasn't beaten all that far. Even when looking at the maiden runs there was some promise. For example there was a couple of runs behind Sitar of James Fanshawe's at Nottingham and Leicester, each time finishing 2.3 or 3l behind. Sitar is running off 72 next time out.

    I expect Shelneverwalkalone to set a brisk pace up front. Deciding Vote and Lily Ash are others that can help keep this honest.

    The slight concern with this filly is that she's proved a bit reluctant at the stalls and tends to miss the break. She's usually held up so it shouldn't be a huge issue unless she completely blows it. I may well get involved in running to take a bigger price should the opportunity arise.

    Let's hope for a good run.

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    Cosmelli 140a 33/1 ran an eye-catching race at Newcastle 2 starts ago when 100/1 behind higher power only Beaten 3l with yorkidding behing(won today)now 2lb lower.disappointed last time.
    Last edited by Outsider; 11th August 2017 at 9:55 PM.

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  23. #259
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    5.05 Windsor - Royal Etiquette 25s

    Must have a squeak. Has form. Decent jockey booking. Not badly handicapped.

  24. #260
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Gt St Wilf two 'qualifiers':

    Naadirr - briefly touched 33s and 40s this morning. Naadirr got quite close to The Tin Man last spring after his rating went up to 110. He was also running well in Maydan this spring but was subsequently dumped by Marco Botti. He’s 12lbs lower now than last season and has only had two runs for his new trainer.

    Mattmu 28/1 - probably another whose star is on the wane but his owner and trainer are standing by him. This is actually his first ever run in a handicap so they may be accepting his slide for what it’s worth or they’re seeing it as an opportunity to bag a decent prize if he’s no longer capable of mixing it in Group races. Rated 115 at his peak two seasons ago, he’s still lightly raced overall but has dropped more dramatically than the others and he was ‘only’ 20/1 for the G1 Golden Jubilee on his penultimate start when still rated 110. Ayr might be the aim, though, in which case a penalty might be a hindrance.
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