Originally Posted by
Maxbet
At the start of the season I put up a Dark Horse in one of my 10 to follow lists. I selected him not only because he wasn’t in the list but because I saw not only potential but signs of a plot in the way he had so far been campaigned.
The trainer is no stranger to pulling of gambles in this sphere, won the “Shwotefair hdl” 3 times with 3 different horses. So let’s have a look at what he’s been up to, and if the math’s can add reassurance.
First time up he Changed from Ed Vaughan to Gary Moore and after a 115 days break he sloshed up at Kempton in a 2m introductory hdl at 25/1.
Next the trainer could offer no explanation to a poor run, I can, go watch it, he cruised up running far too freely and dropped back. That run was followed by a gambled on run where he ran into Fusil Raffles, (the race he took a chunk out of himself) finishing second.
He’s now been raised to 135… possibly not enough to get into this race, so we will make sure and add a few pounds without giving to much away.
Still a young horse with plenty of time to improve. A run on the flat over a mile, 3 weeks before his biggest test yet, (the race that drew my attention) 2m back at Kempton, a 4-year-old taking on older more experienced rivals…Silver Streak no less, off level weight.
Held up in touch in the last pair, he made a mistake at the 3rd last, closed on the leaders 2 out, pressing for second and drawing alongside Grand Sancy but no chance with the winner, he looked to have the measure of GS when that one fell at the last…..the handicapper raised him 8Lb’s.
Too much weight, lets get him fit, primed, and drop a Lb or 2..Elite hurdle Christopher Wood behind, since raised 7Lb…Fusil and Sancy fight out the finish…12Lb superior getting 3Lb and he never got involved in the dog fight finish with the future in mind.
Next Epatante giving 3Lb, took her on 2 out, one paced after…Chris Woods, Elvis Mail…behind….the math equates to something in the region of 10/15Lb well in, in future…gets in here of 138….had a pipe cleaner at Kempton on the flat 16 days ago….got to be still improving at 5.
So there you have it….I’m bored waiting…So please don’t Beat The Judge up…