Page 11 of 117 FirstFirst ... 6789101112131415162161111 ... LastLast
Results 201 to 220 of 2332

Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #201
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,390
    Thanks
    1,344
    Thanked 1,127 Times in 1,011 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Haydock 4:30 Stoneyford Lane. Being well supported which might be significant. 12/1 in a place (Hills etc).
    Last edited by Marb; 6th July 2017 at 3:26 PM.

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    PRICEWISE2008 (6th July 2017)

  3. #202
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    11,073
    Thanks
    348
    Thanked 760 Times in 649 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    I laid the effin thing :0(............well done Martin
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #203
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,390
    Thanks
    1,344
    Thanked 1,127 Times in 1,011 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Cheers man. I'm just starting to get my eye in this season.
    Don't lay mine anytime soon!
    Last edited by Marb; 6th July 2017 at 7:11 PM.

  5. #204
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    16,017
    Thanks
    1,465
    Thanked 1,552 Times in 1,111 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    No show.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  6. #205
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,634
    Thanks
    2,917
    Thanked 3,474 Times in 2,734 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Haydock 4:30 Stoneyford Lane. Being well supported which might be significant. 12/1 in a place (Hills etc).
    Just noticed this.

    Well done, Martin!

    Did you get 20/1?

    Certainly smashed the 17/2 sp to bits.

    Just one qualifier for me today:

    Farquhar (Hay 3.15) won a big one at Newmarket at 40/1 in late 2014 (off 89). The following season he was a good third in this race off 96 and an even better second off 98 a couple of runs later back at Newmarket. He couldn’t follow it up a couple of weeks later and was gelded. He’s presumably had problems as he was then off the track until this season and it would be no surprise if his shrewd trainer has targeted this race for him. On his best form he is seriously well handicapped and a very big price.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th July 2017 at 9:08 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. #206
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,634
    Thanks
    2,917
    Thanked 3,474 Times in 2,734 Posts
    Barney Roy is my idea of the winner of the Eclipse but I couldn't resist the temptation of 33/1 Lightning Spear. He's up there with the bulk of the field on overall ratings (joint-top on ORs and RPRs) and was tailed off on his only previous try at the trip but I'm prepared to take that as being too bad to be true. Of the nine runners, at least two won't really be there to win and one doesn't really have a serious chance yet they allow for the third place to be paid.

    I can't say I fancy him to win but, place-wise, I reckon you're getting bigger odds about his stamina than should be the case.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #207
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    716
    Thanks
    30
    Thanked 97 Times in 76 Posts
    4.25 Haydock - Dandyleekie- 20s with 365, Sportingbet and Victor's

    Starting to look well treated, his last run at the course has worked out well and I expect him to go close today in this field.

    Slight concern over the ground being too quick so I think 20s is fair rather than overpriced. He could be being minded for a handicap once the ground eases and finish up in one of the Ayr sprints.

  9. #208
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Haydock 4.25 Dandyleekie 20/1 - won this race last year off a 4lb higher mark and has a 3lb claimer - won last year on soft but can handle the ground today and may surprise?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  10. #209
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,634
    Thanks
    2,917
    Thanked 3,474 Times in 2,734 Posts
    Two mentions of Dandyleekie - must be worth a wee pop!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #210
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    4.25 Haydock - Dandyleekie- 20s with 365, Sportingbet and Victor's

    Starting to look well treated, his last run at the course has worked out well and I expect him to go close today in this field.

    Slight concern over the ground being too quick so I think 20s is fair rather than overpriced. He could be being minded for a handicap once the ground eases and finish up in one of the Ayr sprints.
    Didn't see you put it u as well Dan - hopefully a good sign. Good luck!!
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  12. #211
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,390
    Thanks
    1,344
    Thanked 1,127 Times in 1,011 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Good luck with it today lads. I want to give a good shout to Pactolus in the big sprint at Sandown. This is a horse I had my eye on during the winter on AW. I think he's good on his day. Should out run odds of 20/1 for sure. EW.
    Last edited by Marb; 8th July 2017 at 1:38 PM.

  13. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    PRICEWISE2008 (8th July 2017)

  14. #212
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    716
    Thanks
    30
    Thanked 97 Times in 76 Posts
    I think the ground for ours SC. We've both picked him I think because he's a horse that is looking almost ready to strike.

    I will say now that I do have a habit with these handicappers of going for them one run too early and I get the feeling this is one of those times, recently did it with Desert Ace, backed him at Musselburgh and left him the next time. I would keep an eye out for where Dandyleekie turns up next. It could be somewhere like Thirsk or Pontefract and assuming they drop him back into class 5 and find him so,even ground where he can get his toe in I'd rate him a strong bet.

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to DanB88 For This Useful Post:

    swedish chef (9th July 2017)

  16. #213
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Ayr 2.10 Konig Dax 20/1 - Up to Cheltenham this year this horse had the distinction of being the last horse to beat the great Douvan. McCain paid 160,000 euros for him but he has obviously had his problems with only 1 run in 2015 and 1 run in 2016. Has had 2 runs this year with his last run in a flat h'cap showing plenty of promise. Could be better than his current mark? It wouldn't surprise if he outran his odds.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  17. #214
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Ayr 2.10 Konig Dax 20/1 - Up to Cheltenham this year this horse had the distinction of being the last horse to beat the great Douvan. McCain paid 160,000 euros for him but he has obviously had his problems with only 1 run in 2015 and 1 run in 2016. Has had 2 runs this year with his last run in a flat h'cap showing plenty of promise. Could be better than his current mark? It wouldn't surprise if he outran his odds.
    Just a hd off a place at 25/1 - goes in the tracker.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  18. #215
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,634
    Thanks
    2,917
    Thanked 3,474 Times in 2,734 Posts
    Unlucky, Chef. Good call.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #216
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Ayr 2.45 Tommy G 20/1 - His last 4 runs have been in better graded races than the one today and his last run looked promising finishing well over a furlong shorter. Races today off 1lb lower and a 7lb claimer on board, is bred to appreciate the distance and going and could well outrun his price. Trainer does well at these Ayr summer meetings. Another interesting point I have noticed is the horse is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, nice to see he is sending a horse to Goldie.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  20. #217
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Ayr 2.45 Tommy G 20/1 - His last 4 runs have been in better graded races than the one today and his last run looked promising finishing well over a furlong shorter. Races today off 1lb lower and a 7lb claimer on board, is bred to appreciate the distance and going and could well outrun his price. Trainer does well at these Ayr summer meetings. Another interesting point I have noticed is the horse is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, nice to see he is sending a horse to Goldie.
    Just seen Giggsy has this on his thread as well - feeling good about this now
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  21. #218
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,634
    Thanks
    2,917
    Thanked 3,474 Times in 2,734 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Another interesting point I have noticed is the horse is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, nice to see he is sending a horse to Goldie.
    Doesn't run in HAM's colours. You sure about that?

    Also, I'd worry that the claimer is a sign of a non-trier.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 10th July 2017 at 10:47 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  22. #219
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,847
    Thanks
    580
    Thanked 580 Times in 401 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Doesn't run in HAM's colours. You sure about that?

    Also, I'd worry that the claimer is a sign of a non-trier.
    Checked my browsing history to see if I could find it in HAMS colours but couldn't. Don't know what happened there? I still fancy he will run well.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  23. #220
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,634
    Thanks
    2,917
    Thanked 3,474 Times in 2,734 Posts
    A couple of 'qualifiers' today (not necessarily my main bets in the respective races):

    NWM 1.50 - Sofia's Rock - just over 11 lengths behind Atty Persse in the the KGV H’cap, he actually ran a good bit better than the bare form and was eased late on after meeting trouble in running about two out. He’s 10lbs better with Atty Persse, including Shoemark’s claim, and it could be that he wasn’t over his previous impressive win. He also disappointed in the Lingfield Derby Trial on the back of a wide-margin, strong-staying win. Has now drifted out to 20/1 to qualify for the thread.

    NWM 3.00 - I backed one last night at 20/1 but it's shorter now so can't claim it as a qualifier. The one that does qualify is Brian The Snail 25/1 given his connections’ record in the big handicaps at the big meetings this season. (No other reason!)

    I'll be happy for either to run better than its price.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  24. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    swedish chef (13th July 2017)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •