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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1301
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    With bet 365 paying 8 places and Gabrielle malune claiming 5lb i think BRAVERY has a chance at 40/1.only ran 4 times this season.hasnt won since the 2017 Lincoln and has dropped down the weights as a result.

    Ive also gone in again on whats the story 40/1 8 places as when i backed it earlier along with Raising Sand 40/1 it was only 4 places or 5.

    Good luck.

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  3. #1302
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    NWM 3.40 BET365 CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (Class 2) (3yo+) Winner 99,600 35 runners 1m1f Good ITV4(STALLS Centre)
    No. Draw Form Horse Stats Days Age Weight Trainer Jockey OR TS MON
    3-9-9
    (123+)
    Notes RPR
    19 35 3-0708 Raising Sand 21 6 9-1 Jamie Osborne Nicola Currie 3 98 104 128 ? t 116
    1 5 553782 Circus Couture D 21 6 9-10 Jane Chapple-Hyam J F Egan 107 104 124 p v 117
    33 25 122202 Mordin p 1 bf 15 4 8-12 Simon Crisford Pat Cosgrave 95 111 124 ? p 120
    30 3 -49023 Sabador 21 4 8-13 Ed Walker Jamie Spencer 96 100 123 p t 119
    7 6 012463 Afaak v 1 bf 17 4 9-7 Charles Hills Dane O'Neill 104 105 122 p 117
    10 34 7-8302 Tricorn h C 19 4 9-4 John Gosden James Doyle 101 95 122 p AC 118
    12 17 -37012 Kenya t 14 3 9-4 A P O'Brien Seamie Heffernan 106 104 122 p 117
    22 2 451460 What's The Story p 60 4 9-1 Keith Dalgleish Tom Queally 98 104 122 p 117
    3 11 12-284 Sharja Bridge bf 37 4 9-9 Roger Varian Silvestre De Sousa 106 108 121 p +? 117
    4 8 -91255 Mountain Hunter D 16 4 9-8 Saeed bin Suroor Hector Crouch 105 91 121 e p 114
    11 16 3-1133 Abe Lincoln tp 183 5 9-4 Jeremy Noseda Luke Morris 101 - 121 p AL 116
    16 26 -64592 Via Via b C 43 6 9-2 James Tate Tom Marquand 99 98 121 ? e v
    (125? p sl)
    118
    25 18 554083 Mythical Madness p D 9 7 9-0 David O'Meara Cameron Noble 5 97 106 121 p? 115
    28 20 0-1757 Restorer C 28 6 9-0 Ian Williams Richard Kingscote 97 88 121 +
    (125 e)
    120
    20 19 425312 Zwayyan b bf 22 5 9-1 Andrew Balding Jason Watson 3 98 106 120 117
    9 24 /633/1 Very Talented 9 5 9-5 4ex Saeed bin Suroor Rossa Ryan 3 102 - 119 + 118
    15 28 2393-5 Mistiroc v D 33 7 9-2 John Quinn Sean Davis 5 99 68 119 106
    21 10 911115 Danceteria 13 3 9-1 David Menuisier Fran Berry 103 88 119 p +? 118
    24 33 521341 Via Serendipity t C 49 4 9-1 Stuart Williams Gerald Mosse 98 93 119 p 115
    31 30 019042 Masham Star 14 4 8-12 Mark Johnston Andrew Breslin 5 95 108 119 122 AC
    (123 AC)
    115
    2 14 071461 Pivoine b 35 4 9-9 Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy 106 101 118 p 115
    5 23 4-1212 Alfarris p bf 35 4 9-7 William Haggas Jim Crowley 104 100 118 +p 115
    13 22 -32032 Kynren bf 37 4 9-3 David Barron William Buick 100 109 118 p +? 117
    23 7 011430 Ventura Knight 58 3 9-1 Mark Johnston Ben Curtis 103 101 118 p e t 114
    26 31 373410 Third Time Lucky CD 57 6 9-0 Richard Fahey Jack Garritty 97 103 118 122 AW
    (125? e)
    117
    8 21 2-1181 Wissahickon D 46 3 9-5 John Gosden Frankie Dettori 107 102 117 +p AC 114
    14 13 5440-2 UAE Prince p 1 146 5 9-2 Roger Varian Andrea Atzeni 99 100 117 116
    17 4 114141 Waarif 7 5 9-2 4ex David O'Meara Conor McGovern 3 99 107 117 p +? 116
    18 1 214563 Euro Nightmare D 35 4 9-1 Keith Dalgleish Martin Harley 98 87 117 113
    27 9 967310 Kings Gift 35 4 9-0 Michael Dods Shane Kelly 97 106 117 (126?) 116
    34 15 90-908 Sands Chorus D 15 6 8-11 James Given Wayne Lordan 94 98 117 ? d
    (121)
    117
    35 12 5-9205 Bravery 14 5 8-10 David O'Meara Gabriele Malune 5 93 106 117 e
    (122e)
    [+]
    115
    6 27 -11816 Seniority 35 4 9-7 William Haggas Daniel Tudhope 104 108 116 p 114
    29 29 -81P66 Examiner tp 1 C D 3 7 9-0 Stuart Williams Sebastian Woods 5 97 110 116 116
    32 32 -22161 Stylehunter b D 35 3 8-12 John Gosden Robert Havlin 100 82 116 +p 116

    I think this race illustrates pretty clearly the relative pointlessness of stats. While Jazeel won the Silver race yesterday, thereby maintaining the strong record of 3yos in the race, 4yos and 5yos, who have such a poor record in that race, have an excellent record in this one, between them winning seven of the last ten runnings, so I’m ruling nothing out on the basis of flimsy trends. My favourite ‘trend’ is the one that dictates that a race of this nature is ALWAYS won by a well-handicapped horse!

    As with the really top races like the Hunt Cup and Magnet Cup, it almost invariably takes more winning than the figure at the top of the MON (my own) ratings column indicates. That’s the ‘norm’ for a Class 2, well-contested handicap. These are more competitive still. I’m looking for something that can hit at least 125 on the scale. That brings in the likes of Raising Sand, Circus Couture and several others so it’s a question of which hold the strongest credentials.

    Raising Sand is a must bet as it’s a tracker hose from the Hunt Cup and hasn’t been off since. I’m not sure about his jockey but the trainer seems to trust her (4/24, 17% this season) so I’ll follow his faith. Circus Couture may well be flattered by his good second in the Superior at Haydock to Here Comes When as that was in heavy ground. Still, he’s been put up 2lbs for it so is officially well-in here. Jane Chapple-Hyam has an excellent record in races of this nature.

    The other fanciable ones include Mordin (Crisford is no mug, as he showed with Ostilio in the Britannia), Sabador (as an improver but all his best ratings are at 7f, dropping off as he goes up in trip), Afaak (visored for the first time), both of Gosden’s for obvious reasons, likewise the two Godolphins, both of Varian’s (UAE Prince carries the first colours yet Sharja Bridge is rated higher and Jason Weaver gave the strong impression he had info about the former) and so many others.

    If my reading of the Hunt Cup is correct, Raising Sand has to get the nomination as the main bet at nice odds. I’ll have smaller win bets on Circus Couture, Via Via, Restorer, King’s Gift and Sands Chorus as potential 125 horses on the scale on their best form. They should all be really big prices but last year’s first three were 50s, 100s and 50s. To put things into perspective, Sands Chorus, runner-up last year at 100/1 (off 92, actually won the far-side race) is only 2lbs higher here yet is a similar price. I can’t say I fancy him even to be placed, to be honest, but if he’s part of a smallish group and gets to dominate it and they find a golden highway and the rest of the jockeys have backed it, it could win!

    The chances are one of the +p horses will win but the bookies seem alive to them all so there’s no real value in covering all of them and I'll end up feeling a bit sick if I pick one or two and one of the others goes and wins. Like Jazeel... (where's the boak emoticon?)

    [Edit - having spent another half-hour re-reading my notes this morning, I've decided to have a win saver on UAE Prince. It doesn't qualify for the thread, I'm just mentioning it in the interests of transparency. And they don't come much more transparent than me ]
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 29th September 2018 at 8:36 AM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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  5. #1303
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    Restorer and King's Gift both non-runners. That's a wee bit of dosh saved.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  6. #1304
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    Brilliant write up DO. Interesting read.good luck.

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  8. #1305
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    Typical of my luck these days.

    Raising Sand 'wins' his side but is only 8th.

    Decent enough run from Via Via too at a nice price.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  9. #1306
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    6pm bath UPENDED 66/1 skybet

    Had 3 runs for this trainer over 10 or 12 furlongs.has dropped 10lb and a 5lb claimer on.drops down to a mile and is fitted with blinkers..
    I put this in my alerts when it was trained by chris wall so at the price i can risk a 1 ew at that price.

  10. #1307
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    6pm bath UPENDED 66/1 skybet

    Had 3 runs for this trainer over 10 or 12 furlongs.has dropped 10lb and a 5lb claimer on.drops down to a mile and is fitted with blinkers..
    I put this in my alerts when it was trained by chris wall so at the price i can risk a 1 ew at that price.
    NR

  11. #1308
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    Clonmel 4.45 Railway Muice 33/1 - worth a small e/way at the odds. Has been shaping as if a step up to 3m will suit. One paced but looks a stayer. His sister benefited from stepping up to 3m and he is joint top rated on RPR's. Jockey wont be able to use all his claim but he should still be at least 3lb well in. However he did fall l/t/o so unsure if that has affected him?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  13. #1309
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    Hexham 2.50 Shine Away 22/1 small e/way - ran well lat year at this meeting over fences. Looks to on a good mark but form would suggest she likes cut in the ground. Going is currently good but rain is forecast all morning.If enough comes then this horse could benefit?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    As I mentioned elsewhere, I decided not to study this weekend, partly through disillusionment and partly because I'm getting ready to bugger off to Spain for a week early tomorrow.

    One I know I rate highly (from previous big races) and may even have put up on this thread that qualifies tomorrow is:

    Cardsharp 3.35 Ascot 33/1

    There's a chance this has been the target all summer to explain his below-par form but the upside is his price. He might be longer in the morning but I need to leave the house about 3.30am and will be en route until lunchtime and don't know yet if the wifi at the hotel will be up to much.

    The likes of Raising Sand would also be very much on my radar but the 8/1 on offer tomorrow is very tight compared with the 40s on offer last week in the Cambs. I can probably let him go at that price, especially with it only being a week since that run and he's coming back a fair bit in trip. He couldn't have had anything other than a hard race last week, trying to be competitive from a bad draw.

    O'Meara has two good candidates in Escobar and Firmament but they're not big prices either and Tudhope appears to fancy his barra a wee bit more at Newmarket.

    I'm content to settle for just the one bet on the day.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 5th October 2018 at 8:51 PM.
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  17. #1311
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    Good luck with cardsharp DO and have a good holiday.
    Im sticking with his stablemate VALE OF KENT 25/1 but yoy never know with johnson.you cant discard lake volta either.

  18. #1312
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    No, you can't, and I'd be pretty sure LV would be on my radar too if I'd 'done' the race. Then again, so would a few others.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  19. #1313
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    Enjoy the holiday, DO, and I hope you come back revitalised and less disillusioned.
    Last edited by Colin Phillips; 6th October 2018 at 6:58 AM.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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  21. #1314
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Cardsharp 3.35 Ascot 33/1

    ...

    The likes of Raising Sand would also be very much on my radar but the 8/1 on offer tomorrow is very tight compared with the 40s on offer last week in the Cambs. I can probably let him go at that price, especially with it only being a week since that run and he's coming back a fair bit in trip. He couldn't have had anything other than a hard race last week, trying to be competitive from a bad draw.
    Such are the decisions by which one's punting thrives or withers.

    Cardsharp wasn't off an inch, never asked to be competitive from his good position through the first half of the race.

    I can take comfort that I picked out Raising Sand as a very well handicapped animal as far back as June.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    This one today comes with no shortage of negatives.

    a) I haven't studied the form (as I don't have it with me here in Spain).
    b) It seems the poor beast doesn't have form either.
    c) The jockey looks a complete negative.
    d) The horse is 'wrong' at the weights.
    e) I'm playing a complete hunch.

    But at least the odds are big

    Nwm 4.10 Blooriedotcom 66/1

    I made a small killing when PCH won this a few years ago with Farquhar at something like 40/1 and have noted his runners in it since then. They at least look to be triers (as they fvcking should be in a race of this value) so being unable to separate the likes of Frankie's horse, the Khaled Abdullah thing and several others without access to my form, I might as well chuck a bit of fun money at PCH's donkey. If it ends up winning it'll at least pay for this wee jaunt.

    Caveat puntor.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    N abbot 4.00 just one for tara is in my tracker and i dont know why - 29.0 so i will give it a go.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  26. #1317
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    This one today comes with no shortage of negatives.

    a) I haven't studied the form (as I don't have it with me here in Spain).
    b) It seems the poor beast doesn't have form either.
    c) The jockey looks a complete negative.
    d) The horse is 'wrong' at the weights.
    e) I'm playing a complete hunch.

    But at least the odds are big

    Nwm 4.10 Blooriedotcom 66/1

    I made a small killing when PCH won this a few years ago with Farquhar at something like 40/1 and have noted his runners in it since then. They at least look to be triers (as they fvcking should be in a race of this value) so being unable to separate the likes of Frankie's horse, the Khaled Abdullah thing and several others without access to my form, I might as well chuck a bit of fun money at PCH's donkey. If it ends up winning it'll at least pay for this wee jaunt.

    Caveat puntor.
    Fuxake. That was fckin awful.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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    Coeur de lion 50/1 cesarewitch 8places

    2nd last year but a lot higher mark,but ought to be able to get in the first 8

  28. #1319
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    As I've already said. being in Spain and flying home early tomorrow means very limited access to the racing and Unibet is the only firm I can get a bet on with out here.

    I've backed three in the Ces, all at fair 'longshot' odds, but I imagine considerably longer with better terms will be on offer in the morning. I'll just have to bite the bullet and take what's on offer. I don't think I'll even see the race.

    Still, they are:

    Speedo Boy 25/1 - I've always felt he's had a big race in him and the trainer has been mopping up other decent staying handicaps while keeping this guy under wraps. Plus you should see me in my speedos

    Theglasgowwarrior 25/1 - I've put this one up before. This is a Nanton-type of Goldie horse: one whoi can mix it at shorter but has the turn of foot to be a potent threat over a trip. Goldie won the Magnet Cup with a similar type and I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the plan since the summer.

    Cliffs Of Dover 28/1 - given that I put this one up for the Schweppes and Champion Hurdle, I can hardly let it go in this race!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 12th October 2018 at 11:28 PM.
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    Fifth and sixth off possibly exaggerated hold-up tactics and eased off after inept front-running tactics.

    Didn't make any money but I reckon at least two of them ran better than their odds.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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